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美国向制造业投入巨资，但面临熟悉的威胁：中国
By Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley
俄亥俄州佩里斯堡的一家太阳能电池板工厂。拜登政府的一些官员担心，中国进口产品的涌入可能威胁美国工厂的生存。
拜登政府已开始向美国工厂和基础设施投入逾2万亿美元的巨资，旨在加强美国工业和应对气候变化。
但该努力正面临一个熟悉的威胁：来自中国的低价产品激增。这引起了拜登总统及其助手的注意，他们正在考虑采取新的保护主义措施，以确保美国工业能够与北京竞争。
就在美国工厂加大电动车、半导体和太阳能电池板的生产之时，中国的同类产品正大量涌入市场，价格往往比美国竞争对手低得多。欧洲市场也受到了类似冲击。
美国企业高管和官员认为，中国的行为违反了全球贸易规则。这些担忧引发欧美发出新的呼吁，要求对中国进口产品征收更高的关税，这可能导致中国与西方之间本已紧张的经济关系进一步恶化。
类似的中国进口激增曾导致奥巴马政府在2008年金融危机后扶植国内太阳能制造业的努力遭到削弱，一些美国初创企业被迫倒闭。奥巴马政府对中国生产的太阳能设备加征关税作为报复，在世界贸易组织引发了一场争端。
拜登政府的一些官员担心，在政府投入巨资助力国内制造业发展之际，中国制造可能再次威胁到美国工厂的生存。据知情人士透露，作为对前总统特朗普四年前对中国加征关税政策的审查，拜登政府官员似乎有可能提高对中国的新能源车和其他战略物资的关税。这项审查自拜登上任以来就一直在进行，可能会在未来几个月内有最终结果。
国会也在呼吁推出更多保护措施。在1月5日致拜登政府的信函中，一个众议院委员会的两党议员就中国向美国倾销半导体的情况表达了关切。议员们询问政府是否可以制定新的“零件”关税，也就是要对制成品内部采用的进口芯片征税。
此前，该委员会成员曾在11月的一封信函中建议拜登政府考虑就中国新能源车补贴发起新的贸易调查，可能导致对这类汽车征收额外关税。
根据《纽约时报》获得的一封日期为1月4日的信函，美国贸易代表戴琪向议员们表示，她对中国在电动车行业的做法也感到担忧。戴琪向该委员会表示，拜登政府需要“与美国企业和工会合作，确定并部署更多应对措施，以帮助克服中国在该领域以国家为主导的产业扶植”。
过去五年来，美国一直对价值数千亿美元的中国产品征收关税，认为此举可以抵消北京在美国销售廉价产品对美国制造商造成的打击。拜登曾试图凭借大量补贴来为美国企业提供更多帮助，以此促进美国的太阳能电池板、新能源车，以及半导体等清洁能源技术制造业的发展。
但中国的产业政策性支出仍远超美国。面对经济放缓和房地产泡沫逐渐破裂的困局，中国政府近来已进一步加大力度推动出口增长，并支持制造部门的生产。
华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心中国商务和经济项目高级研究员麦怡瑞(Ilaria Mazzocco)表示，北京尤其重视对新能源车和半导体等具有战略意义的高科技产品的投入。
“世界上的其他国家也都想发展这些产业，”她说。
中国成功的部分原因在于其更大的市场为中国企业提供了打磨产品的规模和机会，同时中国还拥有庞大的工程师人才队伍。例如，中国去年销售了约670万辆纯电动汽车，而美国的销量在120万辆左右。
中国政府称其奉行公平竞争，并将美国的贸易措施描述为保护主义。
南京港。面对经济放缓，中国政府最近加大了促进出口和支持制造业的力度。
但亚洲协会政策研究所副所长、前贸易谈判代表温迪·卡特勒表示，中国的清洁能源和半导体产业得到了大量政府援助，包括税收抵免、获得更便宜的能源和资金注入。
“这样的例子不胜枚举，”她说。“随着中国企业利用这类系统，它只会导致产能过剩。”
代表美国太阳能制造商的美国太阳能制造商联盟的执行董事迈克尔·卡尔说，在美国，当太阳能电池板供过于求时，工厂就会让生产线停工、裁员，并试图将产能恢复到正常水平。
“中国不是这样的，”他说。“他们只是建造、建造、再建造。”
能源研究公司伍德·麦肯兹的分析师称，中国去年在太阳能行业投资了1300多亿美元，并准备在今年投产足够的晶圆、电池和电池板，以满足到2032年的全球年度需求。
上月底，两家美国公司对拜登政府暂停对进口太阳能电池板征收关税提出了法律挑战。
中国在半导体领域的巨额投资，包括为支持该行业新设的3000亿元基金，也令投资美国新芯片工厂的公司感到担忧。
中国在全球芯片生产中所占份额很小，到2022年仅占7%左右。但专家表示，中国在半导体行业的支出超过了美国和欧洲的总和，可能在未来十年成为世界上最大的芯片生产国。
研究公司TechInsights副主管丹·哈奇森表示，令人担忧的是，中国将在半导体领域采取其在航运、太阳能电池或钢铁领域所采取的做法——积累过剩产能，然后将外国竞争对手赶出该行业。
“这是一种合理的担忧，因为西方公司的弱点在于它们必须盈利，”他说。
对那些受到不公平补贴，或以低于制造成本的价格在美国市场销售的中国出口产品，美国可以征收关税，它也确实这么做了。本月，它对中国钢铁征收了超过120%的关税。
但是，即使中国商品被美国封锁，它们也可以流入其他国家。这会将全球价格推低至美国公司认为无法与之竞争的水平，并将美国公司挤出国外市场，削弱了它们的收入和竞争力。
一些人说，美国应该接受廉价的中国制造太阳能电池板和传统芯片，而不是征收关税，这会增加美国消费者和使用进口原料的工厂的成本。
自由主义智库凯托学会的贸易专家斯科特·林西科姆表示，美国试图在支出上超过中国，这在经济上没有意义，尤其是在与军事无关的商品方面。
“正确的对策是我们自己也来补贴吗，还是说用经济学上更明智的方式，‘外国政府要疯狂补贴我们的消费，让他们补贴去好了，我们才不在乎’？”林西科姆说。
苏州的一条太阳能电池板生产线上，工人正在进行质检。
但是，鉴于两国关系日益紧张，以及中国实施某些出口禁令，华盛顿大多数官员现在认为，中国在关键市场的主导地位是一个重大风险。中国生产了世界上80%左右的太阳能电池板，近60%的电动车和80%以上的电动车电池。
根据电动车市场研究公司邓恩洞察的数据，中国电动车的平均价格约为2.8万美元，而美国电动车的平均价格约为4.75万美元。去年第四季度，中国汽车制造商比亚迪的电动车交付量首次超过了特斯拉。
中国电动车在欧洲的受欢迎程度激增，促使欧盟开始对中国的不当补贴展开调查。到目前为止，中国的电动车尚未在美国站稳脚跟，因为美国对这些进口产品征收高额关税。
作为拜登于2022年签署的气候法的一部分，主要在美国而不是中国采购和组装的电动车的买家也将获得丰厚的税收抵免。不过，一些官员担心，中国汽车总体上比美国汽车便宜得多，消费者无论如何都会选择购买。
Flush With Investment, New U.S. Factories Face a Familiar Challenge
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/business/economy/china-electric-cars-chips-solar.html
Worries are growing in Washington that a flood of Chinese products could put new American investments in clean energy and high-tech factories at risk.
A solar panel factory in Perrysburg, Ohio. Some Biden administration officials are concerned that a flood of Chinese imports could threaten the survival of U.S. factories.Credit...Daniel Lozada for The New York Times
Ana Swanson and Jim Tankersley are economics reporters in Washington who are closely tracking the impact of Biden’s industrial policies.
But the effort is facing a familiar threat: a surge of low-priced products from China. That is drawing the attention of President Biden and his aides, who are considering new protectionist measures to make sure American industry can compete against Beijing.
As U.S. factories spin up to produce electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels, China is flooding the market with similar goods, often at significantly lower prices than American competitors. A similar influx is also hitting the European market.
American executives and officials argue that China’s actions violate global trade rules. The concerns are spurring new calls in America and Europe for higher tariffs on Chinese imports, potentially escalating what is already a contentious economic relationship between China and the West.
The Chinese imports mirror a surge that undercut the Obama administration’s efforts to seed domestic solar manufacturing after the 2008 financial crisis and drove some American start-ups out of business. The administration retaliated with tariffs on solar equipment from China, sparking a dispute at the World Trade Organization.
Some Biden officials are concerned that Chinese products could again threaten the survival of U.S. factories when the government is spending huge sums to jump-start domestic manufacturing. Administration officials appear likely to raise tariffs on electric vehicles and other strategic goods from China, as part of a review of the levies that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on China four years ago, according to people familiar with the matter. That review, which has been underway since Mr. Biden took office, could finally conclude in the next few months.
Congress is also agitating for more protections. In a Jan. 5 letter to the Biden administration, bipartisan members of a House committee expressed concerns about China flooding the United States with semiconductors. Lawmakers asked whether the government could establish a new “component” tariff that would tax a chip imported inside another finished product.
That followed a November letter in which members of the same committee advised the Biden administration to consider a new trade case over China’s electric vehicle subsidies, which could result in additional tariffs on cars.
Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, told the lawmakers that she shared concerns about China’s practices in the electric vehicle industry, according to a Jan. 4 letter that was shared with The New York Times. Ms. Tai told the committee that the administration needed “to work with U.S. companies and unions to identify and deploy additional responses to help overcome China’s state-directed industrial targeting in this sector.”
The United States has maintained tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese products over the past five years, viewing that as a way to offset Beijing’s ability to undercut American manufacturers by selling cheaper products in the United States. Mr. Biden has tried to further help American companies with billions in subsidies intended to boost U.S. manufacturing of clean energy technology like solar panels and electric vehicles along with semiconductors.
Yet Chinese industrial policy spending still far outstrips that of the United States. Facing an economic slowdown and a gradual bursting of the property bubble, the Chinese government has recently redoubled efforts to promote exports and support its factory sector.
Beijing is particularly focused on investment in high-tech products with strategic importance, like electric vehicles and semiconductors, said Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.
“Those are also the kinds of industry the rest of the world wants as well,” she said.
Some of China’s success stems from its larger market — which gives Chinese firms the scale and opportunity to hone their products — along with its vast pool of talented engineers. China sold about 6.7 million all-electric vehicles last year, for example, compared with around 1.2 million units in the United States.
The Chinese government has said it competes fairly and described U.S. trade measures as protectionist.
The Port of Nanjing in China. Facing an economic slowdown, the Chinese government has recently doubled down on promoting exports and supporting its factory sector.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
But Wendy Cutler, the vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former trade negotiator, said China’s clean energy and semiconductor industries had received a lot of state assistance, in the form of tax credits, access to cheaper energy and equity infusions.
“The list goes on and on,” she said. “As Chinese companies avail themselves of these types of systems, it just leads to overcapacity.”
In the United States, when the supply of solar panels exceeds demand, factories idle their lines, lay off workers and try to bring capacity back into alignment, said Michael Carr, the executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America Coalition, which represents U.S.-based solar manufacturers.
“That’s not the way it works in China,” he said. “They’ve just continued to build and build and build.”
China invested more than $130 billion in the solar sector last year, and is positioned to bring enough wafer, cell and panel capacity online this year to meet annual global demand through 2032, according to analysts at Wood Mackenzie, an energy research firm.
Late last month, two U.S. firms mounted a legal challenge to a temporary moratorium that the Biden administration had placed on tariffs on imported solar panels.
China’s hefty investments in semiconductors, including a new $40 billion fund to support the industry, are also worrying companies investing in new U.S. chip facilities.
China accounts for a small share of global chip production — only about 7 percent in 2022. But experts say that the country is spending more on its semiconductor industry than the United States and Europe combined, and that it could become the world’s largest maker of chips in the next decade.
Dan Hutcheson, the vice chair of research firm TechInsights, said the fear was that China would do for semiconductors what it did for shipping, solar cells or steel — build up excess capacity and then drive foreign competitors out of business.
“It’s a legitimate fear, because the weakness of Western companies is they have to be profitable,” he said.
The United States can — and does — impose tariffs on Chinese exports that are unfairly subsidized or sold in the American market for less than it cost to make them. This month, it slapped tariffs of more than 120 percent on Chinese steel.
But even when Chinese goods are blocked from the United States, they can flow into other countries. That pushes prices down globally to levels with which U.S. firms say they cannot compete, and crowds American firms out of foreign markets, cutting into their revenue and competitiveness.
Some say the United States should simply embrace cheap Chinese-made solar panels and legacy chips, instead of imposing tariffs that raise costs for American consumers and factories that use imported inputs.
Scott Lincicome, a trade expert at the libertarian Cato Institute, said it did not make economic sense for the United States to try to outspend China, especially for goods that are not military-related.
“Is the proper response we do our own subsidies? Or is it to be a better economist and say, ‘Actually, we’ll let foreign governments subsidize our consumption like crazy, we don’t really care’?” Mr. Lincicome said
But most officials in Washington now see China’s dominance of key markets as a significant risk, given growing tensions between the countries and China’s imposition of certain export bans. China produces around 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, nearly 60 percent of electric vehicles and more than 80 percent of electric vehicle batteries.
The average price for an electric vehicle in China is around $28,000, compared with about $47,500 in the United States, according to Dunne Insights, an electric vehicle market research firm. In the fourth quarter last year, the Chinese automaker BYD delivered more electric vehicles than Tesla for the first time.
Chinese electric vehicles have surged in popularity in Europe, prompting the European Union to begin an investigation into illegal subsidies. So far, Chinese electric vehicles have yet to gain a foothold in the United States, which imposes hefty tariffs on those imports.
As part of the climate law that Mr. Biden signed in 2022, buyers of electric vehicles that are primarily sourced and assembled in the United States, rather than China, will also receive lucrative tax credits. Still, some officials worry that Chinese vehicles are in general so much cheaper than American alternatives that consumers could choose to buy them anyway.
Keith Bradsher contributed reporting from Shanghai.
Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics for The Times and is based in Washington. She has been a journalist for more than a decade. More about Ana Swanson
Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley
