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李世默 中国新经济与全球化

(2023-11-07 04:50:44) 下一个

中国新经济与全球化 

https://kmf.com.my/presentation/kmf2023-feature-address-day1/

会议总结

随着全球南方领导人要求达成新的发展协议,外围国家/发展中国家正在挑战中国的现状。

最初的全球化“宏伟计划”已经改变。 它始于以美国为首的西方经济体,它们拥有最丰富的技术和经济资源,而发展中国家则提供廉价劳动力、原材料和消费品的最终需求市场。

旧的“宏伟计划”使美国和中国受益,但不再可持续。 西方一直抵制变革并限制外围国家的经济和技术增长。 然而,中国现在希望摆脱“边缘”地位,成为全球化的核心。

为了成功摆脱边缘地位,中国必须解决其广泛的结构性挑战。 在国内,中国的政治正在左转,权力完全集中。 与美国日益激烈的科技战以及科技与供应链的脱钩使情况变得更糟。

中国经济过去二十年的增长主要依靠三大支柱:(1)房地产占GDP的30%; (2)消费互联网平台兴起; (3) 产业能力和全球供应链建设。

如今,房地产的增长已经失去动力。 曾经是中国经济主要增长引擎的国内房地产行业在激进的降温措施、高杠杆的房地产开发商以及消费者需求破坏的拖累下已经崩溃。

过去十年中,垄断和垄断结构拖累了创新。 这些特征在当地市场产生连锁反应,导致技术投资不足、技术创新停滞、不平等加剧和环境恶化。

全要素生产率不足。 自2010年以来,中国经济似乎已达到生产率增长的上限,规模增长但生产率没有实际提高。 这凸显出中国旧的增长引擎已经不再有效。

中国经济增长的后续发展取决于科技驱动的工业能力、新行业(新能源、生命科学)的增长以及更广泛市场的结构性转变。

中国最好的资产是拥有世界上最大的工业产能——比美国、日本和德国的总和还要大。 通过采用新技术对其进行升级,重新关注该行业,半导体、制造技术、生命科学和合成生物学等各个子行业呈现出 30-40% 的上升潜力。

中国已经在改变其经济模式,提议对世界上最大的经济体之一进行大规模的结构性改革。 这是通过自上而下的举措推动的,以加速突破战略领域的瓶颈; 因此,现有体系中会产生输家,而赢家在短期内仍有待观察。

中国面临的主要挑战是创造一个“小院子大世界”,远离西方的“小院子高篱笆”。 在中美战争中,“小院子、高围栏”的概念是指为先进技术保留小院子,并修建高围栏以阻止中国进入,但未来的一个大问题是,中国作为全球最大的南方国家是否会这样做? 一个国家有能力在西方筑起的“围墙”之外引领并推动新一轮全球化浪潮。

Chinese New Economy and Globalisation - The Sequel Dr Eric Li, Kenneth Woo

https://kmf.com.my/presentation/kmf2023-feature-address-day1/

Session Summary

The peripherals/developing countries are now challenging the status quo with China as the leader of the Global South is demanding for a new development bargain.

The initial globalization ‘grand plan’ has change. It started with the US-led Western economies which possessed the greatest tech and economic resources, in contrast against developing countries providing cheap labour, raw materials and the end demand market for consumer products.

The old ‘grand plan’ benefited US and China but is no longer sustainable. The West has been resisting change and limiting the economic and technological growth of the peripherals. However, China now wants to move out of “peripheral” status and emerge as the core of globalization.

To successfully graduate from peripheral status, China must address its broad structural challenges. Domestically, politics in China is turning left with power being totally centralized. This is made worse by the intensifying tech war with US and the decoupling of tech and supply chains.

The growth of China’s economy in the past two decades has been anchored by three pillars: (1) Real estate which accounts for 30% of the country’s GDP; (2) The rise of consumer internet platforms; and (3) The buildup of industrial capacity and global supply chain.

Today, the growth of real estate has run out of steam. Once the main growth engine of the Chinese economy, the domestic real estate sector has collapsed, dragged by aggressive cooling measures, highly leveraged property developers and demand destruction by consumers.

Monopoly and monopsony structure have dragged innovation in the past decade. These characteristics in the local market have a chain reaction, causing the underinvestment in tech, stagnation of technological innovation, rising inequality and environmental degradation.

Insufficient Total Factor Productivity. The Chinese economy appears to have hit a ceiling in productivity growth since 2010, growing in size without actual productivity improvement. This highlights the fact that China’s old growth engines are no longer valid.

The sequel to Chinese economic growth depends on tech-enabled industrial capacity, and the growth of new sectors (new energy, life sciences) alongside structural shifts in the broader market.

China’s best asset is possessing the largest industrial capacity in the world — larger than the US, Japan and Germany combined. A renewed focus on this sector by upgrading it with new technology presents 30-40% upside potential through various sub-sectors such as semiconductors, manufacturing tech, life sciences and synthetic biology.

China is already changing its economic model, proposing a wholesale structural change to one of the biggest economies in the world. This is driven through top-down initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of chokepoints in strategic areas; hence, creating losers from the existing system while winners remain to be seen in the short-term.

The main challenge for China is in creating a ‘small yard, big world’, away from the West’s ‘small yard, high fence’. In the war between US and China, the concept of ‘small yard, high fence’ refers to keeping small yard for advanced technologies and building high fences to prevent Chinese access, but the big question moving forward is if China, as the biggest Global South country, is able to lead the way and drive a new wave of globalization outside the ‘fence’ created by the west.

李世默  全球化2.0

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eric-x-lis-globalization_b_1069669

内森·加德尔斯 作者:内森·加德尔斯,《世界邮报》撰稿人、主编

2011 年 11 月 1 日,|2012 年 1 月 1 日更新

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埃里克·李(Eric X. Li)是近年来中国涌现的最有趣的全球思想家之一。

他是一位居住在上海的风险投资家,也是成为资本的首席执行官,该公司拥有优酷(YouTube 的中国版)以及郑伟伟的《中国浪潮》(目前中国的畅销书)的出版商。

以下文章改编自他在伯格鲁恩研究所 21 世纪理事会上的演讲,该理事会上周在 20 国集团峰会之前在巴黎举行了会议。 李认为,接受中西文化的共存是经济利益可持续融合的条件。 全球化2.0意味着多元身份的相互依存,而不是旧的西方主导的全球化1.0,它假定一种全球文化的普遍性。

巴黎——西方再次处于崩溃的边缘,世界也随之屏住了呼吸。 2008 年刚过不久,这次的震中就在欧洲。 距离戛纳G20峰会召开还有一周,欧洲列强正在努力遏制希腊债务危机的持续蔓延。 凌晨时分,各国政府首脑和银行家们再次以疲惫的目光达成了一项协议,其中涉及减记(具体细节尚待制定)、未来实施的紧缩措施以及火灾等。 - 需要找到资金的围墙救援基金。 听起来有点熟?

萨科齐总统与胡锦涛主席通电话,游说中国投资欧洲救助基金。 在21世纪理事会G20峰会前论坛上,阿尔·戈尔、格哈德·施罗德、戈登·布朗、埃内斯托·塞迪略和帕斯卡·拉米等世界领导人齐聚一堂,讨论全球化的不稳定状况,中国再次成为其中的大象。 房间。 他们问道,中国是否会挺身而出,为全球化提供迄今为止由美国领导的西方秩序承担成本的公共产品? 他们说,这样做似乎当然是中国的责任,因为中国已经搭上了西方国家提供的全球经济和安全基础设施,成为世界第二大经济体,或者像许多人认为的那样搭便车。

中国领导人的一位有影响力的外交政策顾问要求修改论坛公报,这最能说明中国的立场:将“中国领导的新兴国家”改为“包括中国在内的新兴国家”。 或者更好的是,根本不提中国。 相反,有人建议关注利益趋同,从而形成利益共同体。

自冷战结束后全球化开始以来,西方和中国一直在平行宇宙中运作。 两种版本的全球化同时发展。 全球化 1.0 是我们所知道的全球化,因为它是可见的、响亮的。 相比之下,全球化2.0一直是隐形的、安静的。

从老布什的“世界新秩序”到克林顿的“奇迹时刻”,从老布什的“结束世界暴政”到奥巴马的“为所有掌权者制定单一标准”,从世贸组织到国际货币基金组织, 从华尔街到宾夕法尼亚大道,从伊拉克到阿富汗,从华盛顿到奥斯陆,全球化1.0的支持者坚信全人类的普遍结果:自由选举民主将统治每一个国家,一个永远开放的市场(大写M) )对于商品和资本来说,将创造一个单一的世界经济,对每个人、每件事物、任何地方都有相同的规则,而将这一切统一起来的是那些被赋予上帝赋予权利的全能个人,他们都想喝星巴克咖啡加脱脂牛奶 。

二十年来,他们为了自己的普遍愿景而领导这场运动,掏空了他们的祖先几代人赚来的国库,抵押了他们孩子的未来,耗尽了他们年轻士兵的生命,掏空了他们国家的工业,几乎完全不顾一切。 为了他们自己文化的完整性和他们自己人民的福祉。 对于全球化1.0领域的国家来说,政治和商业精英获得了全球化的大部分经济和政治利益,而绝大多数人却在节节败退。
在全球化1.0的主导国家美国,华尔街、硅谷、好莱坞形成了三位一体,通过对政治体系的决定性影响,通过救助和政策瘫痪来捍卫自己所获得的利益。

在欧洲,也是同样的泥潭。 毫不奇怪,愤怒和沮丧正在走上街头。 现在,同样的精英们在电视上摸不着头脑地问:“为什么我们破产了?”。 也许他们面临的不仅仅是财务破产。 他们的全球化面临着潜在的道德破产。 这就是全球化1.0——基于普遍性的全球化。

还有另一个版本的全球化——全球化2.0——一直在发生。 没有大胆的宣言,就比较安静; 它的叙述可能不太连贯; 它不会让人热血沸腾,也不会点燃人们的想象力,为全人类带来某种乌托邦般的结局。 它似乎在全球化1.0的阴影下运作,但却与全球化1.0的元叙事背道而驰。 事实上,这是反元叙事。 二十年来,使数亿人摆脱了贫困; 它以历史上前所未有的速度实现了工业化; 它确实实现了现代化,但并未信奉现代性宗教。

对于全球化2.0领域的国家来说,精英们似乎认识到,他们的责任首先是改善本国人民的生活,他们权力的生存和合法性取决于他们的国家利益,而不是某种自我认知的命运。 经营世界。

全球化2.0的核心是文化作为人类文明基本单位的首要地位:相信每种文化或文明都是独一无二的,并且应该从最底层开始看待。 在下面没有什么可以以某种方式将它们统一起来,从而产生普遍的东西。 文化从根本上来说是不相适应的。 只有认识到并尊重这种不相称性,才能实现它们之间的利益融合,或许也能实现更加和平的世界秩序。 这就是全球化2.0——基于多元化的全球化。

我们正处于全球问题需要全球解决方案的时刻。 人类文明面临的巨大挑战、气候变化以及全球经济在这些挑战之间重新平衡的需要,似乎表明西方与其他国家之间的利益趋同是必要的。 那么,为什么这样的全球解决方案没有出现呢?
因为我们也正处在全球化1.0陷入困境、全球化2.0却坚持沉默和隐形的时刻。 我们夹在中间。 但无论其意图如何,2.0 或许都不能再如此压抑了。 中国作为全球化2.0的领军国家,正在成为许多人瞩目的灯塔。 并不是说任何国家都可以效仿中国的道路,因为根据全球化2.0的定义,中国的道路是不可效仿的。 然而,可效仿的恰恰是这样一种观念:不存在可效仿的通用模式,每种文化都必须遵循自己的道路。

什么样的政治制度最适合他们,什么样的经济模式适合他们的发展阶段,什么样的基本价值观应该构成他们的社会,这些问题对于不同的地方和民族来说都有独特的答案。 他们的选择应该得到尊重。 他们的声音值得被听到,尤其是全球化 1.0 领域的人民,他们的政治和商业精英以普遍性的名义剥夺了他们的遗产和未来。

许多声音呼吁中国在全球体系中成为更加“负责任”的参与者。 一些人指责中国“搭便车”,没有在帮助重新平衡支离破碎的世界经济秩序方面发挥建设性作用。 中国对担任领导职务表现出明显的犹豫甚至拒绝,要么引起辞职,要么引起不满。 但这种情绪忽略了一个根本问题:西方是否真的准备好接受中国作为世界舞台上平等和合法的参与者? 西方能否与一个价值观和观点截然不同甚至对立的文明大国合作? 许多西方人隐藏在全球化1.0的自欺欺人之下,认为随着中国的发展,中国将不可避免地最终采用被标榜为普世价值的西方价值观。

这些人需要面对这样一个事实:中国,无论贫富、强弱,永远不会成为一个以市场资本主义和个人为核心的自由选举民主国家。 利益有效融合和中国发挥急需的领导作用的绊脚石不是中国不愿意,而是西方社会对这一未来缺乏共识。 如果没有这样的共识,关于负责任行为和建设性合作的言论将只是空谈。

全球化还能继续吗? 世界的未来是合作还是冲突?

答案在于世界能否顺利实现全球化操作系统从1.0到2.0的切换。 这并不像从 Windows 迁移到 Mac 那样容易。 全世界都在焦虑地注视着。

Eric X. Li's Globalization 2.0

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/eric-x-lis-globalization_b_1069669

 

Nathan Gardels  By Nathan Gardels, Contributor, Editor-in-chief, The WorldPost  

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This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email.

Eric X. Li is one of the most interesting global thinkers to emerge from China in recent years.

He is a Shanghai-based venture capitalist and CEO of Chengwei Capital, which owns YouKu, the Chinese version of YouTube, as well as the publisher of Zheng Wei Wei's "The China Wave," a current best-seller in China.

Here is an article adapted from his presentation to the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council that met in Paris last week in advance of the G-20 Summit. Li argues that accepting the co-existence of incommensurate cultures in China and the West is the condition for a sustainable convergence of economic interests. Globalization 2.0 means the interdependence of plural identities instead of the old Western-dominated Globalization 1.0 which assumed the universality of one global culture.

Paris - Once again the West is on the brink, and along with it, the world is holding its breath. So soon after 2008, this time the epicenter is in Europe. One week before the G20 summit in Cannes, European powers are struggling to contain the Greek debt crisis that refuses to go away. Once again, in the wee hours of the morning, a deal was struck by heads of governments and bankers with weary eyes that involves write-downs of which the details are to be worked out, austerity measures to be implemented at future dates, and fire-wall rescue funds for which the money needs to be found. Sound familiar?

President Sarkozy got on the phone with President Hu Jintao to lobby for China's investment in Europe's rescue fund. At the Pre-G20 Summit Forum of the 21st Century Council, world leaders, such as Al Gore, Gerhard Schröder, Gordon Brown, Ernesto Zedillo and Pascal Lamy, gathered to discuss the precarious state of globalization and, again, China was the elephant in the room. Will China, they asked, step up and provide the public goods for globalization that so far the U.S.-led Western order has shouldered the costs? It certainly seems to be China's responsibility to do so, they say, as it has ridden, or free-ridden as many might contend, the Western provided global economic and security infrastructure to become the second largest economy in the world.

China's position is best illustrated by an influential foreign policy advisor to Chinese leaders who requested an edit to the forum's communiqué: the phrase "emergent nations led by China" was to be changed to "emergent nations including China". Or perhaps better yet, don't mention China at all. Rather a focus on convergence of interests leading to a community of interests was proposed.

Ever since the beginning of globalization at the end of the Cold War, the West and China have been operating in parallel universes. Two versions of globalization have been concurrently developing. Globalization 1.0 is globalization as we know it because it is visible and loud. Globalization 2.0, by contrast, has been invisible and quiet.

From George H. W. Bush's "new world order" to Bill Clinton's "moment of miracles", from George W. Bush's "ending tyranny in the world" to Barrack Obama's "single standard for all who hold power", from the WTO to the IMF, from Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue, from Iraq to Afghanistan, from Washington to Oslo, the proponents of Globalization 1.0 are convinced of a universal outcome for all of mankind: liberal electoral democracy shall rule every nation, an ever opening Market (with a capital M) for both goods and capital will create a singular world economy with the same rules for everyone, everything, and everywhere, and unifying it all are the almighty individuals endowed with God-given rights who all want to drink Starbucks coffee with non-fat milk.

For twenty years now, they have led this drive for their universal vision, emptying the treasuries earned over many generations by their forefathers, mortgaging their children's future, expending the lives of their young soldiers, hollowing out their countries' industries, with near complete disregard for the integrity of their own cultures and the welfare of their own peoples. For countries in the Globalization 1.0 sphere, the political and commercial elites have reaped the lion's share of the economic and political benefits of globalization while the vast majorities are losing ground.

In the United States, the leading nation of Globalization 1.0, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood form a holy trinity that, through its decisive influence on the political system, is guarding the benefits accrued to them with bailouts and policy paralysis. In Europe, it is the same quagmire. Little wonder that anger and frustrations are being taken to the streets. And now the same elites are on television scratching their heads asking: "why are we bankrupt?". Perhaps what they confront is much more than financial bankruptcy. It is potential moral bankruptcy that is facing their version of globalization. This is Globalization 1.0 - globalization based on universality.

Then there is another version of globalization - Globalization 2.0 - that has been taking place all along. It is quieter without bold proclamations; it is perhaps not so coherent in its narrative; it does not get one's blood boiling or set one's imagination on fire with some utopian end in sight for all mankind. It seems to be operating in the shadow of Globalization 1.0 but stands in fundamental opposition to the meta-narrative of Globalization 1.0. In fact, it is the anti-meta-narrative. In the last twenty years, it has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty; it has industrialized in a speed unprecedented in history; it has indeed modernized without subscribing to the religion of modernity.

For countries in the sphere of Globalization 2.0, elites seem to recognize that their responsibility is first and foremost to improve the livelihoods of their own peoples, and the survival and legitimacy of their power depends on their national interests rather than some self-perceived destiny to run the world.

At the core of Globalization 2.0 is the primacy of culture as the basic unit of human civilization: the belief that each culture or civilization is unique and should be seen as such from the very rock bottom. There is nothing more underneath that could somehow unify them and thereby produce something universal. Cultures are fundamentally incommensurate to each other. And only in recognizing and respecting this incommensurateness can the convergence of interests among them be realized, and perhaps a more peaceful world order along with it. This is Globalization 2.0 - globalization based on plurality.

We are at a moment when global problems demand global solutions. The monumental challenges facing human civilization, climate change and the need to re-balance the global economy among them, seem to indicate a necessary convergence of interests between the West and the rest. Why, then, are such global solutions not forthcoming?

It is because we are also at a moment when Globalization 1.0 is in trouble and Globalization 2.0 insists on remaining quiet and invisible. We are stuck in between. But perhaps 2.0 can no longer be so subdued regardless of its intention. China, the leading nation in Globalization 2.0, is becoming a beacon for many to see. Not that any country can emulate China's path, because it is by Globalization 2.0's definition not emulate-able. What is emulate-able, however, is the very idea that there is no emulate-able universal model and each culture must follow its own path.

What political systems are most suitable, what economic models fit their developmental stages, and what fundamental values should constitute their societies are questions with unique answers to different places and peoples. Their choices should be respected. Their voices deserve to be heard, not the least by the very peoples in the sphere of Globalization 1.0 where their political and commercial elites have, in the name of universality, robbed them of their heritages and their futures.

Many voices are calling on China to be a more "responsible" player in the global system. Some have accused China of "free-riding" and not playing a constructive role in helping re-balance a shattered world economic order. The pronounced hesitancy, and even refusal, to be placed into a leadership role by China is either noted with resignation or met with resentment. But this sentiment misses a fundamental question: Is the West truly prepared to accept China as an equal and legitimate player on the world stage? Can the West cooperate with a major civilizational power that stands for fundamentally different and even opposing values and outlooks? Many in the West have hidden behind the self-delusion of Globalization 1.0 that as China develops it will inevitably and eventually adopt Western values that are billed as universal values.

These people need to face the fact: China, rich or poor, powerful or weak, will NEVER become a liberal electoral democracy with market capitalism and the individual as the core unit of its society. The stumbling block to effective convergence of interests and China taking on the much needed leadership role is not China's unwillingness but the lack of consensus in Western societies on that future. Without such consensus, the rhetoric about responsible behavior and constructive cooperation will remain empty talks.

Can globalization continue? Does the world face a future of cooperation or conflicts? The answer lies in whether the world can smoothly switch the operating system of globalization from 1.0 to 2.0. It is not as easy as going from Windows to Mac. The world watches with anxiety.

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