央行行长声称需要提高利率来应对持续的通胀

央行行长声称需要提高利率来应对持续的通胀

https://apnews.com/article/central-banks-interest-rates-inflation-ecb-fed-edad92557f07b97a16f98f1fdd161f56

2023 年 6 月 28 日，他们不会放弃大幅加息，指出通胀比预期更持久，但仍淡化加息对经济衰退的担忧。 

德国法兰克福（美联社）——全球主要央行行长周三坚称，他们不会放弃大幅加息，指出通胀比预期更为持久，但仍淡化加息对经济衰退的担忧。

根据与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德、英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利和日本央行行长一夫举行的小组讨论，传递出的信息是，在通胀野兽受到抑制之前，借贷成本将保持在高位。 上田。

拉加德在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行年度政策会议上发表讲话时表示：“我认为我们必须像通胀持续存在一样坚持下去。” “我们必须坚决、果断、坚定地实现我们设定的目标。”

尽管加息迅速，鲍威尔表示，“最重要的是，政策的限制力度还不够长。”

鲍威尔、拉加德和贝利强调，强劲的就业市场是通胀的推动因素，通胀已从能源和商品价格转向服务业。 鲍威尔指出，美国每一个失业者就有 1.7 个职位空缺，而贝利则形容英国劳动力市场“非常非常强劲”。

随着工人要求更高的工资以跟上更高的生活成本，企业往往通过提高价格来转嫁这些额外的劳动力成本，这可能导致工资价格螺旋式上升——这是央行行长最糟糕的噩梦。

大多数分析师认为这种螺旋式上升尚未形成。 但由于许多经济体的工资增长落后于通货膨胀，工人可能会继续争取更高的工资。

今年接任该职务的上田周三是个例外，他表示通胀尚未要求加息。

一些世界顶级央行领导人的言论强调，通货膨胀的范围比最初预期的更为广泛，而且借贷成本可能会比许多人预期的更高，并且维持在高位的时间更长。

这可能会阻碍经济增长，因为从汽车贷款到信用卡等各种借贷变得更加难以负担，从而增加了经济衰退的风险。 全球经济增长疲软，欧洲经济已经连续两个季度萎缩——这是衰退的定义之一。

但由于失业率处于低位，这几乎没有迹象表明真正的经济衰退。 央行行长们表示，他们的经济比预期更具弹性，并且预计不会出现收缩。

拉加德表示，欧洲产出的小幅下降更像是停滞，欧洲央行的基线预测“不包括经济衰退，但这是风险的一部分”。

尽管存在经济衰退的风险，但央行行长们强调，他们预计将在一段时间内将利率维持在最高水平——可能比活跃的股票和债券市场预期的时间更长。

贝利表示：“我一直感兴趣的是，市场认为，在我们面临更加持续的通货膨胀的世界中，高峰将是相当短暂的。”

总部位于瑞士的全球央行组织国际清算银行表示，自 2021 年初以来，全球近 95% 的央行都加息了，甚至比 20 世纪 70 年代通胀油价冲击期间的加息幅度还要高。

国际清算银行在本周的一份报告中称其为“数十年来最同步、最激烈的货币政策紧缩”。

美联储在连续十次加息后本月维持关键利率不变。 鲍威尔表示，美联储官员希望花更多时间看看利率上升对经济有何影响，暗示他们可能在未来的轮流会议上加息。

“但我根本不会放弃在连续会议上采取行动，”他说。

与此同时，英国央行上周连续第 13 次大幅加息半个百分点，令欧洲央行本月连续第八次加息。 澳大利亚和加拿大央行已暂停加息，但随后又恢复了加息。

美国的通胀率已降至 4%，使用欧元的 20 个国家为 6.1%，英国为 8.7%，但这仍远高于银行 2% 的目标。

提高利率来应对价格飙升会给他们带来麻烦，包括习惯了多年低利率的银行可能出现混乱的风险，硅谷银行和其他美国银行的倒闭就表明了这一点。

抵押贷款利率上升还会导致房价下跌，并给持有可调整利率抵押贷款的人带来意想不到的财务压力，这种情况在一些国家很常见。

意大利总理乔治亚·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)周三对央行的通胀解药进行了反击。

“加息的简单方法似乎并不是正确的道路，”总理告诉立法者。 “人们必须考虑加息对经济的打击比通胀更严重的风险，以及治疗方法比疾病本身更糟糕的风险。”

然而央行行长坚称，如果通胀失控，痛苦只会变得更加严重。

贝利表示：“我们的工作是让通胀回到目标水平，我们将采取必要的行动。” “我理解随之而来的担忧，但恐怕我总是不得不说——如果我们不让通胀回到目标水平，结果会更糟糕。”

Top central bankers assert need for higher interest rates to tackle persistent inflation

https://apnews.com/article/central-banks-interest-rates-inflation-ecb-fed-edad92557f07b97a16f98f1fdd161f56

BY DAVID MCHUGH AND CHRISTOPHER RUGABER  June 28, 2023

 

The President of European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, delivers a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023. Leading global central bankers asserted Wednesday,

June 28, 2023, that they are not backing off their steep interest rate increases, pointing to inflation being more persistent than expected but still downplaying fears of recession from their hikes. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, File)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Leading global central bankers asserted Wednesday that they are not backing off their steep interest rate increases, pointing to inflation being more persistent than expected but still downplaying fears of recession from their hikes.

The message was that borrowing costs would stay high until the inflation beast is subdued, according to a panel discussion with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda.

“I think we have to be as persistent as inflation is persistent,” Lagarde said during the talk at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal. “We have to be resolute and decided and determined in reaching the target that we have set.”

Europe's interest rates to stay high as long as needed to defeat inflation, central bank chief says

Fed's Powell reinforces likelihood of more rate hikes because of persistently high inflation

Despite rapid rate increases, Powell said “the bottom line is that policy hasn’t been restrictive enough for long enough.”

Powell, Lagarde and Bailey stressed the strong jobs market was a driver of inflation, which has shifted from the prices of energy and goods to the service sector. Powell noted that there are 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in the U.S., while Bailey described the U.K. labor market as “very, very robust.”

As workers press for better salaries to keep pace with the higher cost of living, businesses often pass along those extra labor costs by raising prices, potentially leading to a wage-price spiral — a central banker’s worst nightmare.

Most analysts don’t believe such a spiral has developed yet. But with wage growth trailing inflation in many economies, workers are likely to keep pushing for higher pay.

Ueda, who took over the job this year, was the outlier Wednesday, saying inflation did not call for rate rises yet.

The comments from some of the world’s top central bank leaders underscored that inflation is turning out to be more widespread than originally hoped — and that borrowing costs are likely to go higher, and stay high for longer, than many had anticipated.

That could hold back economic growth as borrowing becomes less affordable for everything from auto loans to credit cards, raising the risk of recession. Growth has been weak globally, and Europe’s economy already shrank for two straight quarters — one definition of recession.

But with unemployment at lows, that gives little indication of a true recession. The central bankers said their economies have been more resilient than expected and they don’t foresee a contraction.

The small dip in output in Europe was more like stagnation, Lagarde said, and the ECB's baseline forecast “does not include a recession, but it's part of the risk out there.”

Despite the risk of recession, the central bankers emphasized that they expect to keep rates at their peaks for some time — likely longer than buoyant stock and bond markets expect.

“I've always been interested that the market thinks that the peak will be quite short-lived in a world where we're dealing with more persistent inflation,” Bailey said.

Since early 2021, almost 95% of the world's central banks have raised rates, even more than during the inflationary oil price shocks of the 1970s, according to the Bank for International Settlements, a Switzerland-based global organization of central banks.

In a report this week, the BIS called it “the most synchronised and intense monetary policy tightening in decades.”

The Fed kept its key rate unchanged this month after 10 straight increases. Powell said Fed officials want to take a bit more time to see how the higher rates are affecting the economy, suggesting they could lift rates at alternate meetings in the future.

“But I wouldn't take moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all,” he said.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, surprised with a large half-point hike last week — it’s 13th in a row — and the ECB raised rates for the eighth straight time this month. Central banks in Australia and Canada had paused rate hikes, only to resume them.

Inflation has eased to 4% in the U.S., 6.1% in the 20 countries using the euro and 8.7% in the U.K., but that’s still far above the banks’ 2% target.

Raising interest rates to combat price spikes bring their troubles, including the risk of turmoil among banks used to years of low rates, shown by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other U.S. banks.

Rising mortgage rates also can lead to falling home prices and unanticipated financial pressure for people with adjustable-rate mortgages that are common in some countries.

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni hit back Wednesday at the central bank’s antidote to inflation.

“The simplistic recipe of raising interest rates does not seem the right path to follow,″ Premier told lawmakers. “One must consider the risks that a rate hike will hit economies harder than inflation, that the cure will be worse than the disease.”

Yet the central bankers insist the pain would only get worse if inflation slips out of control.

“Our job is to return inflation to target, and we will do what is necessary,” Bailey said. “I understand the concerns that go with that, but I’m afraid I always have to say — that it is a worse outcome if we don’t get inflation back to target.”