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美媒：制裁或造成广泛影响，但俄罗斯不会轻易投降
2022年02月01日 11:43 媒体滚动
【编译/观察者网 刘程辉】“拜登总统为组织乌克兰遭入侵而采取的大胆制裁，可能会扰乱整个俄罗斯的经济，但也会影响到其他的国家。”《纽约时报》当地时间29日撰文，对美国制裁俄罗斯可能造成的后果进行评估。俄罗斯物价、金融市场稳定将受到制裁破坏，影响将超过2014年；但俄方不会轻易投降，可能采取断气、网络攻击等行动实施报复。给美国和欧洲带来痛苦。
《纽约时报》：美国制裁俄罗斯可能会造成广泛影响
“美国官员威胁要对俄罗斯实施的最严厉的制裁，可能会导致严重的通货膨胀、股市崩盘和其他形式的金融恐慌，给俄罗斯人——从亿万富翁、政府官员，到中产阶级家庭带来痛苦。”文章指出，这一策略也伴随着政治和经济风险。因为从来没有哪个国家试图对如此庞大的金融机构以及俄罗斯这样规模的经济体实施广泛制裁。美国官员承诺的“迅速而严厉”的制裁可能会扰乱主要经济体，尤其是欧洲国家，甚至会威胁到全球金融体系的稳定。
一些分析人士还警告说，这种情况可能会升级。俄罗斯可能会切断对欧洲的天然气运输，或对美国和欧洲的基础设施发起网络攻击，以报复来自西方的经济打击。
报道称，制裁造成的痛苦可能会激起民众对俄罗斯总统普京的不满，但历史表明，这个国家不会轻易投降，韧性是其民族认同的重要组成部分。美国官员对他们可能被认为在惩罚俄罗斯人民的说法也很敏感，这种看法可能会加剧反美情绪。
一些专家认为，美国官员正试图制定一项制裁措施，一方面能够对俄罗斯造成破坏性打击，另一方面也能限制包括美国在内的世界各地遭受的经济冲击。官员们表示，拜登政府目前不打算把制裁的枪口指向俄罗斯庞大的石油和天然气出口行业，这样做可能会推高通胀压力下美国的汽油价格，并导致与欧洲盟友分裂。
2017年，普京向莫斯科无名烈士墓献花（图自俄媒）
许多制裁问题专家认为，如果对俄罗斯金融业实施最大胆的制裁，可能会产生重大危害，“这肯定会影响到每一个俄罗斯人”。有报告估计，2014年的制裁将俄罗斯的年经济增长率降低了3%，而新的制裁可能会产生更大的影响。
对于普通俄罗斯人来说，美国采取的最严厉措施可能意味着食品和服装价格上涨；更严重的是，可能导致他们的养老金和储蓄账户，因卢布或俄罗斯市场的崩溃而大幅贬值。
不过，就目前而言，美国官员并未考虑立即对俄罗斯经济的基础——石油和天然气出口——实施任何制裁。
欧洲国家依赖来自俄罗斯的天然气，而美国的几个盟友，尤其是德国，希望华盛顿不要扰乱俄罗斯的能源行业。分析人士表示，尽管限制俄罗斯石油和天然气出口能力的制裁，将是迄今为止针对俄罗斯经济最强大的武器，或许也是针对“入侵”乌克兰最有效的经济威慑，但它们也会给欧洲和美国带来痛苦。
报道分析，拜登政府可以采取更为谨慎的方式，只对规模较小的俄罗斯国有银行实施制裁，或将对俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行和俄罗斯外贸银行的惩罚限制在它们的投资部门。例如限制这些银行从事任何涉及美元的交易。
“近年来，对一些俄罗斯实体的制裁产生了意想不到的后果，导致美国官员三思而行。”文章提到，2018年4月，美国财政部将与普京关系密切的俄罗斯商人奥列格·德里帕斯卡（Oleg Deripaska）等人列入了S.D.N.名单（“特别指定国民与禁止人员名单”）。但由于德里帕斯卡拥有世界第二大铝生产商俄罗斯铝业公司，这项制裁导致全球铝价飙升。美国财政部被迫于2018年12月解除了对他的主要公司的制裁。
美国国务院前官员菲什曼认为，尽管美国和欧洲国家经常讨论俄罗斯的天然气出口，但原油销售对俄罗斯的经济影响要大得多，因此对石油实施制裁可能会产生强大的影响。“石油是俄罗斯经济的命脉，也是克里姆林宫投射实力的命脉，美国可能会通过制裁来限制俄罗斯石油生产行业的商品和服务供应，甚至会向盟友施压，要求它们减少购买俄罗斯石油。”
不过，乔治·华盛顿大学访问学者玛丽亚·斯涅戈瓦娅说（Maria Snegovaya）警告称，“在某个时刻，如果目标是威慑普京，西方将不得不牺牲一点自身福祉。”她还说：“美国的通货膨胀进一步限制了政府的行动。通货膨胀已达到30年来前所未有之程度。对俄采取任何重大行动都将导致油气价格的变化。”
前美国国务院官员、兰德公司分析师塞缪尔·查拉普（Samuel Charap）则表示，莫斯科还可能会对美国和美国金融巨头发动新的网络攻击。
“如果我们盯上他们的大银行，他们同样很可能盯上我们的银行。”查拉普说。
U.S. Sanctions Aimed at Russia Could Take a Wide Toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/politics/russia-sanctions-economy.html
The boldest measures that President Biden is threatening to deter an invasion of Ukraine could roil the entire Russian economy — but also those of other nations.
Sanctions could be viewed as punishing the Russian people — a perception that might fuel President Vladimir V. Putin’s narrative that his country is being persecuted by the West.Credit...Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock
WASHINGTON — The most punishing sanctions that U.S. officials have threatened to impose on Russia could cause severe inflation, a stock market crash and other forms of financial panic that would inflict pain on its people — from billionaires to government officials to middle-class families.
U.S. officials vow to unleash searing economic measures if Russia invades Ukraine, including sanctions on its largest banks and financial institutions, in ways that would inevitably affect daily life in Russia.
But the strategy comes with political and economic risks. No nation has ever tried to enact broad sanctions against such large financial institutions and on an economy the size of Russia’s. And the “swift and severe” response that U.S. officials have promised could roil major economies, particularly those in Europe, and even threaten the stability of the global financial system, analysts say.
Some analysts also warn of a potential escalatory spiral. Russia might retaliate against an economic gut punch by cutting off natural gas shipments to Europe or by mounting cyberattacks against American and European infrastructure.
The pain caused by the sanctions could foment popular anger against Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. But history shows that the country does not capitulate easily, and resilience is an important part of its national identity. U.S. officials are also sensitive to the notion that they could be viewed as punishing the Russian people — a perception that might fuel anti-Americanism and Mr. Putin’s narrative that his country is being persecuted by the West.
From Cuba to North Korea to Iran, U.S. sanctions have a mixed record at best of forcing a change in behavior. And while the Biden administration and its European allies are trying to deter Mr. Putin with tough talk, some experts question whether they would follow through on the most drastic economic measures if Russian troops breached the border and moved toward Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.
President Biden has said he will not send American troops to defend Ukraine. Instead, U.S. officials are trying to devise a sanctions response that would land a damaging blow against Russia while limiting the economic shock waves around the world — including in the United States. Officials say that for now, the Biden administration does not plan to target Russia’s enormous oil and gas export industry; doing so could drive up gasoline prices for Americans already grappling with inflation and create a schism with European allies.
But many experts on sanctions believe that the boldest sanctions against Russia’s financial industry, if enacted, could take a meaningful toll.
“If the Biden administration follows through on its threat to sanction major Russian banks, that will reverberate across the entire Russian economy,” said Edward Fishman, who served as the top official for Russia and Europe in the State Department’s Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation during the Obama administration. “It will definitely affect everyday Russians.”
Mr. Fishman added: “How are you going to change Putin’s calculus? By creating domestic disturbances. People will be unhappy: ‘Look what you did — all of a sudden my bank account is a fraction of what it was? Thanks, Putin.’”
Understand Russia’s Relationship With the West
The tension between the regions is growing and Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly willing to take geopolitical risks and assert his demands.
- Competing for Influence: For months, the threat of confrontation has been growing in a stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.
- Threat of Invasion: As the Russian military builds its presence near Ukraine, Western nations are seeking to avert a worsening of the situation.
- Energy Politics: Europe is a huge customer of Russia’s fossil fuels. The rising tensions in Ukraine are driving fears of a midwinter cutoff.
- Migrant Crisis: As people gathered on the eastern border of the European Union, Russia's uneasy alliance with Belarus triggered additional friction.
- Militarizing Society: With a “youth army” and initiatives promoting patriotism, the Russian government is pushing the idea that a fight might be coming.
Sanctions imposed after Mr. Putin annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and gave military support to an insurgency in the country’s east created a modest drag on Russia’s economy. Those penalties and later ones took a surgical approach, heavily targeting Mr. Putin’s circle of elites as well as officials and institutions involved in aggression against Ukraine, in part to avoid making ordinary Russians suffer.
U.S. officials say the impact of sanctions now would be categorically different.
Washington is looking to take a sledgehammer to pillars of Russia’s financial system. The new sanctions that American officials are preparing would cut off foreign lending, sales of sovereign bonds, technologies for critical industries and the assets of elite citizens close to Mr. Putin.
Previous sanctions heavily targeted Mr. Putin’s circle of elites as well as officials and institutions involved in aggression against Ukraine, in part to avoid making ordinary Russians suffer.Credit...Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press
But the real damage to Russia’s $1.5 trillion economy would come from hitting the biggest state banks as well as the government’s Russian Direct Investment Fund, which has prominent Western executives on its advisory board. The Treasury Department would draw from its experience targeting Iranian banks under President Donald J. Trump, though Iran’s banks are much smaller and less integrated into the global economy than Russian banks.
Once the department puts the Russian banks on what officials call its “game over” sanctions list, known as the S.D.N. list, foreign entities around the world would stop doing business with the banks, which would have a big effect on Russian companies.
The United States would also enact sanctions to cut lending to Russia by foreign creditors by potentially $100 billion or more, according to Anders Aslund, an economist and an author of an Atlantic Council report on U.S. sanctions on Russia. Though Russia has taken steps since 2014 to rely less on foreign debt for expenses, such a loss could still devalue the ruble, shake the stock market and freeze bond trading, Mr. Aslund added.
His report estimated that the 2014 sanctions reduced Russia’s annual economic growth by up to 3 percent, and new sanctions could bite much harder.
Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine Tensions
For an average Russian, the harshest U.S. measures could mean higher prices for food and clothing, or, more dramatically, they could cause pensions and savings accounts to be severely devalued by a crash in the ruble or Russian markets.
“It would be a disaster, a nightmare for the domestic financial market,” said Sergey Aleksashenko, a former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia and former chairman of Merrill Lynch Russia. He noted that the ruble had already fallen more than 10 percent from its October value against the dollar, amid increasing talk of Western sanctions.
In a sign of the growing seriousness, officials from the National Security Council have been talking with executives from some of Wall Street’s largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, about the stability of the global financial system in the wake of potential sanctions.
The European Central Bank has also warned bank lenders to Russia about risks if the United States imposes sanctions and has asked about the sizes of their loans.
For now, though, American officials are not considering any immediate sanctions on the foundation of Russia’s economy: its oil and gas exports.
??European nations rely on natural gas from Russia, and several U.S. allies, notably Germany, prefer that Washington refrain from disrupting the Russian energy industry. Analysts say sanctions that limit Russia’s ability to export oil and gas would be by far the most powerful weapon against the Russian economy, and perhaps the most effective economic deterrent against an invasion of Ukraine, but they would also cause pain in Europe and the United States.
“At some point, the West will have to sacrifice a little bit of its well-being if the goal is to deter Putin,” said Maria Snegovaya, a visiting scholar at George Washington University and an author of the Atlantic Council report.
“U.S. inflation further constrains the administration’s actions,” she added. “Inflation is already unprecedented for the last 30 years. Any action against Russia that is dramatic will lead to changes in oil and gas prices.”
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.
Though the United States and European nations constantly discuss Russian natural gas exports, the sale of crude oil matters far more to Mr. Putin’s economy, so sanctions on oil could have a powerful effect, said Mr. Fishman, the former State Department official.
“Oil is the lifeblood of their economy and of the Kremlin’s ability to project power,” he said, noting that the United States could use sanctions to restrict the supply of goods and services to Russia’s oil production industry, and even pressure allies to reduce their purchases of Russian oil.
European nations rely on natural gas from Russia, and U.S. officials are not considering any immediate sanctions on the country’s oil and gas exports.Credit...Odd Andersen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
In Washington, the names of a dozen Russian state-owned and private banks have circulated as potential targets of Treasury Department sanctions. They are listed in Ukraine aid bills introduced by Democratic members of Congress this month. The bills call for sanctions on at least three of the Russian banks if Mr. Putin invades Ukraine.
Russia’s two largest banks, Sberbank and VTB, are on the list. Sberbank has about a third of the assets in the country’s banking sector, and VTB has more than 15 percent, according to Ms. Snegovaya. Mr. Fishman noted that most Russians pay their mortgages to Sberbank. Though Russia’s major banks already have some level of sanctions on them, if they were put on the Treasury Department’s S.D.N. list, the damage to the economy could be profound and long-lasting.
But the Biden administration could take a more cautious approach and impose sanctions only on lesser Russian state-owned banks or limit penalties against Sberbank and VTB to their investment arms. The Treasury Department could also deploy sanctions against banks that fall short of putting them on the S.D.N. list; it could restrict banks from doing any transactions involving dollars, for instance.
And American officials are hesitant to cut off the Russian financial system from SWIFT, a critical electronic network that connects thousands of banks worldwide.
In recent years, sanctions on some Russian entities have had unintended consequences that have caused American officials to think twice. In April 2018, the Treasury Department put Oleg Deripaska, a Russian businessman close to Mr. Putin, and six other oligarchs on the S.D.N. list. Mr. Deripaska owned Rusal, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, and the sanctions caused a surge in global aluminum prices. The Treasury Department lifted sanctions on his main companies in December 2018.
The technology sanctions against Russia would emulate the kind that the Trump administration used to hobble Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company. The Commerce Department would invoke what it calls the foreign direct product rule, which bars American companies from providing technology to companies under sanction, demolishing the supply chain needed to produce advanced technologies. One aim would be to hamper the growth of strategic industries in Russia, including its oil and gas sector and defense industry.
“I think the administration is learning from what the U.S. has done vis-à-vis Huawei,” said Christopher Miller, co-director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, may be inclined to help Mr. Putin, given their shared desire to weaken Washington’s global standing. But it is not clear that Beijing would throw Russia a robust lifeline. After the 2014 sanctions, four Chinese state-owned banks declined to do business with Russian institutions in order to avoid running afoul of Washington. And when Russia tried to sell gas to China at a high price, Chinese officials bargained them down.
Some analysts worry less about whether Russia can blunt the pain of American sanctions than whether they might cause Mr. Putin to escalate his showdown with the West.
“If the sanctions are really that momentous and Russia is fighting its biggest war since World War II on an issue of vital importance, they will likely retaliate,” said Samuel Charap, a former State Department official who is now an analyst with the RAND Corporation.
Mr. Charap added that Moscow could conduct new cyberattacks against the United States and American financial giants. The Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin last weekend warning of Russian cyberretaliation.
“We go after their big banks,” he said, “they would likely go after ours.”
