spx 的三角形整理的最后结局？ ZT

下面是我看到一篇关于spx的TA文章。我个人看后感到受到启发，分享在此次，供股友参考。

周三收盘，spx已经越过了50天均线，spx自一月末大调整以来，已经四次越过了50天均线，前三次被证实是假突破。这最后一次命运如何，还有待观察。

 

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5月6日收盘后的分析  

TRIANGLES HAVE FIVE WAVES ... My Thursday message included a technical footnote which stated that triangles usually have five waves, which include three pullbacks. I further suggested that the last week's pullback may have been the third one. The two converging trendlines in Chart 2 are applied to the S&P 500. The five numbers overlaid on the chart show my interpretation of the five-wave triangular consolidation pattern (three pullbacks with two intervening bounces). The first two bottoms (waves 1 and 3) are pretty clear. Both of those two earlier pullbacks also represented successful tests of the 200-day average (red arrows). Here's where it gets interesting. It looks to me like the past week's pullback may represent the third one (wave 5?). Prices didn't quite reach the lower trendline, but did bounce off their 200-day average (for the third time). That's important because in a normal triangle, the third pullback should be the final one. It's interesting to note that the SPX is also trending between two converging moving averages -- a rising 200-day average (red arrows) and a falling 50-day line (blue arrow). The only way we'll know for sure if this past week's pullback was the final one in the three month consolidation is for the SPX to clear its 50-day average and its mid-April high. And, of course, the falling trendline drawn over its February/March highs. That's necessary to signal that the triangular consolidation pattern has been completed. Until that happens, the outcome remains in question. Which is why I placed a question mark (?) after Wave 5.

(click to view a live version of this chart)
Chart 2