与夏雨719谈谈腾讯股票的价格波动

年初53左右买入的，值得长期捂着，还是都出掉啊？- 夏雨719

”腾讯还是51的时候入的，37走了一半，还有一半就捂着吧。“ - 夏雨719

虽然不知道你买入腾讯的理由，但是从你的实际交易操作，可以知道你是跟踪价格趋势，大白话就是“炒股”。

炒股我不懂，但是投资我懂一些，我就谈谈投资者是如何思考股价波动的。仅供参考。

 

We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses. 

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. 

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.  - 芒格

腾讯公司过去五年的ROE均值是31.39%，ROE31.39%的五年五次方是3.86，过去五年腾讯股价上涨大约是3.7倍。

按照芒格的生意模式资本理论，如果腾讯公司能在今后二十年继续维持30%的ROE，那么股价可以上涨190倍，这是我感兴趣的，腾讯是有可能成为芒格所说的Good Business，所以我想投资它。

如果你买了一个价值低估的股票 ， 你就要等到价格达到你算出来的内在价值时卖掉 ， 这是很难算的 。
但是如果你买了一个伟大的公司 ， 你就坐那儿待着就行了。-  芒格

参考芒格的投资理论，如果是长期持有，那么买入价格高或低50%，对最终的结果影响不大，大致上你投入的每一分钱的年均回报率基本上与ROE相等，所以如果腾讯今后二十年的ROE均值是30%，那么你投入的每一分钱的投资收益将大致是年均30%，假设20年以后估值水平不变。

对于一家好公司，当然是股价越低，买入越多，止损在这里是不存在的（投资组合的考虑依然是必要的），除非是不再符合好公司的要求。买入价格的合理估值当然是投资者的常规工作，成长股的估值方法与普通蓝筹股当然是不同的，一般会偏高，但依然必须是在合理范围之内。 

Mr Market

2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

根据老巴的经验，任何股票的短期股价大幅波动都是十分普通的事，如果你不想承受大幅度的股价下跌，该怎么办呢？

"You shouldn't own common stocks if a 50% decrease in their value in a short period of time would cause you acute distress."  - 巴菲特

因为芒格的理论只能在长期持中有效，所以如果想得到这个理论的结果，必须使用长期持有的策略。投资资金的安排当然要与策略相对应，资金必须可以长期使用。

合理利用市场先生的波动，有可能降低资本风险，比如我期望以0-50%的市价成本建立长期仓位。 

 

在国内生活

联系朋友，用微信

买东西，用京东，微信支付

叫外卖，用美团，饿了吗

叫车，用滴滴

骑单车，用摩拜

买假货，用PDD

旅游，用携程

电动汽车，用蔚来

。。。。。。

而它们都是属于腾讯的，腾讯是中国互联网经济的一个指数。

阿里的情况与腾讯差不多。