市场的波动和个股的波动

Take a look at the last 189 years of general stock prices:

 

Some anecdotes I find interesting by observing the results 189 years between 1825 and 2013:

• The market had 134 positive years and 55 negative years (the market was up 71% of the time)
• 44% of the time the market finished the year between 0% and +20%
• 60% of the time the market finished the year between -10% and +20%
• Only 14% of the time (26 out of 189 years) did the market finish worse than -10%
• Only a mere 4.8% of the time (fewer than 1 in 20 years) did the market finish worse than -20%

2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
 
一个人一生中能遇到50%幅度的市场波动机率非常少，几十年也未必遇得上一次。
而一个普通个股的50%幅度的波动是平均一年一次。


熊市的市场经验对个股没有多少价值，对比个股，熊市的市场波动频率和幅度太小太少。

很多事情你只要努力付出了，没功劳也有苦劳，勤奋会有个基本的收益保障。但投资这行既残酷又简单的特征在于，从来不问你付出了多少，而只看你对不对。这种类别的工作，努力是第二位的，第一位是正确的价值观和方法论。否则，方向不对，越勤奋越坎坷，越痴迷越疯魔。-  水晶苍蝇拍