正文
2.6
日记1 拒绝遵命文艺
遵命文学不是文学，遵命艺术不是艺术，艺术存在的意义是做为先锋——因为艺术创作者的敏感性、较强的感受性、超前性。遵命意味着出卖真实（感受）与权贵，在道德的上是可耻的，在艺术上是贬值的。
日记2 黄色笑话8
1、 副局长在办公室大骂:局长算个鸡 巴!恰被局长听到,反问:我是鸡 巴,你是什么?副局长立刻例证,机智的回答:我是鸡 巴毛,紧密的团结在您的周围.
2、帝见妃愁容满面，急召御医.医处方:壮汉八条.几日后，帝出巡回宫.见妃容光焕发,大喜.忽见殿前立八名瘦汉，惊问:何人? 御医答:药渣!
3、说一对男女xj，男的进入之后趴在女的身上不动，温柔的说:咱们现在联通了，女的有些不悦，男猛烈进攻，女的高声大喊:移动就是比联通好!
4、一男士去医院,医生问:何处不适？男答：听后不准笑.医生答:当然.男士脱其裤生 殖 器 仅有火柴棒粗,医生大笑.男士大怒:都肿了好几天了,你还笑!
5、石油厂新人结婚,厂长送来对联.上联是:新人新井新钻头:下联是:越钻越深越出油.横批是:月明松.众问横批何意,答:将明字分开朗读即可.
6、晚饭后领导视察'江阴 毛纺织厂',大门口霓虹灯的厂名不巧电路故障,第一个江字未亮,领导只能看到后五个字,于是关切地问厂长:原材料好搞嘛?
7某男拿女医生所开处方转了半天回来问："13超到底在哪？"女医生笑曰："不是13超，是B超。"男大怒曰："靠！你的B分得也太开了!
8.小两口吵架从楼上扔一枕头，正巧一乞丐路过甚喜。片刻又有一被子飞下，乞丐狂喜。于是擦着眼泪对楼上喊：大兄弟，行行好，把那女的也扔下来吧！
China’s Last Soft Landing NEW HAVEN –
Once again, China has defied the naysayers. Economic growth picked up in the final quarter of 2012 to 7.9% – half a percentage point faster than the 7.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter. This was a meaningful increase after ten consecutive quarters of deceleration, and it marks the Chinese economy’s second soft landing in slightly less than four years. This illustration is by Paul Lachine and comes from NewsArt.com, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.Illustration by Paul Lachine Comments
Despite all the talk about the coming shift to internal demand, China remains heavily dependent on exports and external demand as major drivers of economic growth. It is not a coincidence that its last two slowdowns followed closely on the heels of growth slumps in its two largest foreign markets, Europe and the United States. Just as the soft landing in early 2009 occurred in the aftermath of a horrific American-made crisis, this latest one followed the European sovereign-debt crisis. Comments
China has several sources of strength that have enabled it to withstand the tough external shocks of the last four years. Large buffers of saving (53% of GDP) and foreign-exchange reserves ($3.3 trillion) are at the top of the list. Moreover, unlike the West, which has used up most of its traditional countercyclical policy ammunition, China has maintained ample scope for fiscal and monetary-policy adjustments as circumstances dictate. Likewise, a powerful urbanization dynamic continues to deliver solid support for China’s high-investment economy, while enabling relatively poor rural workers to raise their incomes by finding higher-paying jobs in the cities. Comments
Nonetheless, this may be the last time that China can escape an external shock with its growth intact. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed this possibility nearly six years ago, arguing in March 2007 that the seemingly spectacular Chinese economy had become “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsustainable.” Comments
Since then, many of China’s inherent strengths have been sapped by all-too-frequent external shocks. The banking sector is still digging out from the bad loans extended in the aftermath of the global meltdown in 2008. Finding affordable housing has become an increasingly serious problem for those relocating to cities for the first time. And corruption scandals and the related risks of political turmoil were unsettling, to say the least, in the months prior to last year’s Communist Party leadership transition. CommentsIn other words, the vulnerability implied by Wen’s “Four Uns” has increased significantly. China’s economy has certainly become more unstable, with major slowdowns in real GDP growth in 2009 and again in 2012. Its imbalances have gotten worse as well, with the investment share of GDP approaching 50% and private consumption falling below 35% of GDP. CommentsSimilarly, China has become more uncoordinated, or fragmented, as its income disparities have continued to widen. And sustainability is being jeopardized by environmental degradation and pollution, which pose a growing threat to the country’s atmosphere and water supply. CommentsIn short, China’s growth model has been stretched as never before. And, like a piece of fabric, the longer it remains stretched, the longer it will take to return to its former resilient state – and the greater the possibility that it will not spring back the next time something goes wrong.
The message to China’s new leadership is unmistakable: There has never been a more urgent time to get on with the heavy lifting of rebalancing and reform. Now is the time to implement the measures that will accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.
The agenda is long, but it is hardly a secret. It includes developing the services sector, funding the social safety net, liberalizing an antiquated residential-permit system (hukou), reforming state-owned enterprises, and ending financial repression on households by lifting artificially low interest rates on savings.
Failure to act quickly on this program would leave China far too vulnerable to the inevitable next shock in a crisis-battered world. In the absence of rebalancing, any one of several potential tipping points could seriously compromise the economy’s ability to pull off another soft landing: deteriorating credit quality in the banking system; weakening export competitiveness as wages rise; key environmental, governance, and social problems (namely, pollution, corruption, and inequality); and, of course, foreign-policy missteps, as suggested by escalating problems with Japan.
The Chinese economy has come through two major global crises in the past four years. On the surface, its resilience has been impressive – the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, an unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable economy risks losing its capacity for resilience. Without rebalancing and reforms, the days of the automatic Chinese soft landing may be over.
I have been an optimist about China for 15 years. I still am. But the clock is ticking. Wen Jiabao’s critique six years ago was a powerful diagnosis of the Old China’s flaws that pointed to the Next China’s hopes and dreams. It remains a blueprint that China’s new leadership cannot ignore. Time is no longer on China’s side. It must act now.
Hasta el momento el crecimiento.económico ha impedido que el país se estanque; sin embargo, pronto la creciente corrupción traerá riesgos y colapsos políticos o sociales... 100% Leo Arouet 5 days ago , China se enfrenta ahora a varias dificultades y problemas que son inherentes a todo crecimiento económico. Carol Maczinsky 5 days ago A Chinese hard landing is just a matter of time. Like a turkey earthquake in Istanbul. ACchinese collapse would also fix the US issues and lead to a breakup of China into smaller pieces. China is the new Austrohungarian empire. srinivasan gopalan @geeyes34 6 days ago The author while setting out the agenda for China under the new leadership for a consumer-led economy has conspicuously side-stepped the crucial issue of freedom and liberty to its citizenry. In the absence of fundamental rights that guarantee implicit liberty, no society can become consumerist because the omission of this option or choice militates against offer of a plethora of choices the consumer culture embodies. If development and grandeur were to be secured at the suppression of basic rights, then no society can look forward to future with high hopes. China's place in the comity of nations needs to be natural and should not be born out of the fear of its economic success or military might when political rights to its millions of people remain a pipe-dream even to this day. It is high time the new leadership followed the daring path of Deng when he launched economic reform through market model for progress and prosperity by going in for democratic paradigm of governance so that the rest of the world would feel that a nation with guaranteed political rights to its millions would dare not draw swords with its neighbours or opponents. This is so because any misadventure or foolhardiness on the part of the Chinese authorities should bring immense miseries to its people who might not like to invite trouble when they enjoy the bliss of consumerist economy and the ironical and unique model of Marxist- market developmental model . G.Srinivasan, Journalist, new delhi, inde Expand 100% Paul Mathew Mathew 1 week ago If China were to be a consumer-driven economy anywhere remotely similar to the US... that would be the end of the world as we know it. In case the brain dead economists hadn't noticed, we live in a finite world with finite resources. We are already peaking out on CHEAP oil and that is putting a massive drag on the global economy. Can you imagine if China was to fire on all cylinders? Expand pingfan hong 1 week ago Technically, in terms of sequential quarterly growth, the growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 was still lower than that of the 3rd quarter, too early to claim a victory of soft landing for China, although I agree with the author that China has an ample policy space to prevent a hard landing. The uncertainty remains, however, on whether the new government is still willing to rely on the old tricks to stimulate the economic growth if the economy continues to soften. The excess capacity in many industrial sectors remains worrisome. Expand Jan Smith 1 week ago The late 20th century global system--among the largest national economies, one liberal (USA), and three mercantilists (China, Japan, Germany)--was unsustainable. Two of the mercantilist nations became much richer, and the liberal nation poorer (way poorer than it will admit), until the system crashed. So a prominent liberal economist here advises the most successful mercantilist nation to become liberal. Will it take that advice, do you think? Not until the liberal nation retaliates with mercantilism of its own, I suspect. The Fed seems to know this but the Fed will need a lot of help--a steep VAT, deniable tariffs, etc. Expand 100% Zsolt Hermann 1 week ago There are two simple reasons why China, and in fact all the other countries cannot avoid a total collapse unless they change the present system fundamentally: 1. The world is fully interconnected and interdependent as the article itself also suggests. Thus there cannot be nations, regions, even individuals that can disconnect, pull away from the whole network. On the other hand even the smallest nation falling can pull the whole network with it. From now on only complete, and real, global and mutual cooperation from the planning to the acting level can be successful. 2. The present overproduction, over consumption economic model, regardless of the governing structure serving it is unnatural and unsustainable. Only when we take into consideration the closed natural system we exist in, and natural desires and necessities without artificially inflated yearnings and cravings, then we would be able to build a sustainable system. This is true to China as well as any other country or individual. Expand Frank O'Callaghan 6 days ago Zsolt Hermann is right, but the unbalanced consumption should be fixed by increasing the resources to the poor. x Newsart for The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Recommended for you The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-economic-resilience-is-weakening-by-stephen-s--roach#APOEWK3XzY4xfdrW.99
● 史蒂文·罗奇 中国又一次证明不看好它的人是错误的。其经济增长在2012年最后一个季度提速至7.9%——比第三季度的7.4%国内生产总值（GDP）增长速度高出半个百分点。经过连续十个季度的减速后，这次提速意义非凡，标志着中国经济在略短于四年的时间内第二次实现了软着陆。 尽管有很多关于中国经济将来会转向内需导向的说法，它现在还是非常依赖出口和外部需求为其经济增长的主要动力。中国最近两次经济减速都紧随其最大的两个国外市场——欧洲和美国——的经济衰退之后，并不是巧合。就像2009年初的软着陆发生在美国引发的可怕危机后那样，最近这一次的软着陆则紧跟在欧洲主权债务危机之后。 中国有几个实力来源，让它能够在过去四年里承受严峻的外部冲击。大量储蓄（GDP的53%）所构成的缓冲及外汇储备（3.3万亿美元）是其中最重要的。此外，不像已用尽了大部分传统反周期政策的西方国家，如果形势需要，中国还保持着财政及货币政策调整的巨大空间。同样地，强大的城市化动力继续为中国的高投资经济提供坚固的支持，并让相对贫穷的农民工能够通过在城市找到收入更高的工作来增加收入。 然而，这也许是中国最后一次能够在增长不受影响的情况下避过外部冲击。其总理温家宝早在约六年前就提出了这种可能性，他在2007年3月指出：看似辉煌的中国经济已变得“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、并最终不可持续”了。 自那时起，中国的许多固有优势被频繁的外部冲击削弱了。银行业仍在清理2008年全球危机后遗留下来的不良贷款。对那些第一次移居到城市的人来说，要找到负担得起的房子已成为一个日益严重的问题。腐败丑闻和可能带来的相关政治动乱风险也让人们感到不安——至少在去年共产党领导层权力交接之前的数月是这样的。 换句话说，温家宝“四不”所指的经济弱点已显著加剧了。中国经济确实已变得更不稳定，它的实际GDP增长于2009年大幅放缓，2012年也是如此。发展不平衡也变得更严重——投资占GDP的比重接近50%，而私人消费下跌至不到GDP的35%。 同样地，中国也变得更加不协调或者说碎片化，这是因为其收入差距一直在扩大。而发展的可持续性正被环境退化和污染破坏，这对中国的大气层和水供构成了越来越大的威胁。 简而言之，中国的增长模式被前所未有地扩展。而就像一块布料一样，它被拉伸的时间越长，要回到原来有弹性的状态所需要的时间就越长——而且越有可能在下一次出了什么差错时，再也恢复不到原有的状态。 这给新一届中国领导人传递的信息是很明确的：从来没有任何时候像现在这样迫切需要大力进行再平衡和改革。实施加速经济过渡到更为以消费者为导向经济的措施，现在正是时候。 要做的事很多，但这已不是什么秘密了，包括发展服务业、资助社会安全网、放宽过时的户口政策、改革国有企业、并通过提高被刻意降低的储蓄利率来结束对家庭的金融压迫。 如果不能迅速地实施这些措施，在这个饱受危机冲击的世界，中国可能经不起下一次不可避免的冲击。若没有进行重新平衡，几个潜在临界点中的任何一个都可能严重危害中国经济实现另一次软着陆的能力：银行体系信贷质量的恶化；因工资上涨被削弱的出口竞争力；关键的环境、治理和社会问题（即污染、腐败和贫富差距的问题）；当然，还有例如与日本之间不断升级的问题可能带来的外交政策失误。 中国经济在过去四年安然度过了两个重大的全球危机。表面上，其韧性令人印象深刻——正如中国领导人一直对全世界强调的一样，它是第一个恢复过来的国家。然而，表面之下，这个不平衡、不稳定、不协调、无法持续发展的经济体可能会失去复原能力。如果不进行再平衡和改革，中国自动软着陆的好日子也许就再也不会有了。 我15年来一直对中国经济保持乐观，现在依然如此。但时间不等人。温家宝六年前的评论是对过去中国缺陷强有力的诊断，并指出了未来中国的希望和梦想所在。它仍然是中国新一代领导人不能忽视的蓝图。对中国来说，时间已经很紧迫了，它必须马上采取行动。 作者Stephen S. Roach是耶鲁大学教授，摩根士丹利亚洲前主席。
日记1 拒绝遵命文艺
遵命文学不是文学，遵命艺术不是艺术，艺术存在的意义是做为先锋——因为艺术创作者的敏感性、较强的感受性、超前性。遵命意味着出卖真实（感受）与权贵，在道德的上是可耻的，在艺术上是贬值的。
日记2 黄色笑话8
1、 副局长在办公室大骂:局长算个鸡 巴!恰被局长听到,反问:我是鸡 巴,你是什么?副局长立刻例证,机智的回答:我是鸡 巴毛,紧密的团结在您的周围.
2、帝见妃愁容满面，急召御医.医处方:壮汉八条.几日后，帝出巡回宫.见妃容光焕发,大喜.忽见殿前立八名瘦汉，惊问:何人? 御医答:药渣!
3、说一对男女xj，男的进入之后趴在女的身上不动，温柔的说:咱们现在联通了，女的有些不悦，男猛烈进攻，女的高声大喊:移动就是比联通好!
4、一男士去医院,医生问:何处不适？男答：听后不准笑.医生答:当然.男士脱其裤生 殖 器 仅有火柴棒粗,医生大笑.男士大怒:都肿了好几天了,你还笑!
5、石油厂新人结婚,厂长送来对联.上联是:新人新井新钻头:下联是:越钻越深越出油.横批是:月明松.众问横批何意,答:将明字分开朗读即可.
6、晚饭后领导视察'江阴 毛纺织厂',大门口霓虹灯的厂名不巧电路故障,第一个江字未亮,领导只能看到后五个字,于是关切地问厂长:原材料好搞嘛?
7某男拿女医生所开处方转了半天回来问："13超到底在哪？"女医生笑曰："不是13超，是B超。"男大怒曰："靠！你的B分得也太开了!
8.小两口吵架从楼上扔一枕头，正巧一乞丐路过甚喜。片刻又有一被子飞下，乞丐狂喜。于是擦着眼泪对楼上喊：大兄弟，行行好，把那女的也扔下来吧！
China’s Last Soft Landing NEW HAVEN –
Once again, China has defied the naysayers. Economic growth picked up in the final quarter of 2012 to 7.9% – half a percentage point faster than the 7.4% increase in GDP in the third quarter. This was a meaningful increase after ten consecutive quarters of deceleration, and it marks the Chinese economy’s second soft landing in slightly less than four years. This illustration is by Paul Lachine and comes from NewsArt.com, and is the property of the NewsArt organization and of its artist. Reproducing this image is a violation of copyright law.Illustration by Paul Lachine Comments
Despite all the talk about the coming shift to internal demand, China remains heavily dependent on exports and external demand as major drivers of economic growth. It is not a coincidence that its last two slowdowns followed closely on the heels of growth slumps in its two largest foreign markets, Europe and the United States. Just as the soft landing in early 2009 occurred in the aftermath of a horrific American-made crisis, this latest one followed the European sovereign-debt crisis. Comments
China has several sources of strength that have enabled it to withstand the tough external shocks of the last four years. Large buffers of saving (53% of GDP) and foreign-exchange reserves ($3.3 trillion) are at the top of the list. Moreover, unlike the West, which has used up most of its traditional countercyclical policy ammunition, China has maintained ample scope for fiscal and monetary-policy adjustments as circumstances dictate. Likewise, a powerful urbanization dynamic continues to deliver solid support for China’s high-investment economy, while enabling relatively poor rural workers to raise their incomes by finding higher-paying jobs in the cities. Comments
Nonetheless, this may be the last time that China can escape an external shock with its growth intact. Premier Wen Jiabao addressed this possibility nearly six years ago, arguing in March 2007 that the seemingly spectacular Chinese economy had become “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and ultimately unsustainable.” Comments
Since then, many of China’s inherent strengths have been sapped by all-too-frequent external shocks. The banking sector is still digging out from the bad loans extended in the aftermath of the global meltdown in 2008. Finding affordable housing has become an increasingly serious problem for those relocating to cities for the first time. And corruption scandals and the related risks of political turmoil were unsettling, to say the least, in the months prior to last year’s Communist Party leadership transition. CommentsIn other words, the vulnerability implied by Wen’s “Four Uns” has increased significantly. China’s economy has certainly become more unstable, with major slowdowns in real GDP growth in 2009 and again in 2012. Its imbalances have gotten worse as well, with the investment share of GDP approaching 50% and private consumption falling below 35% of GDP. CommentsSimilarly, China has become more uncoordinated, or fragmented, as its income disparities have continued to widen. And sustainability is being jeopardized by environmental degradation and pollution, which pose a growing threat to the country’s atmosphere and water supply. CommentsIn short, China’s growth model has been stretched as never before. And, like a piece of fabric, the longer it remains stretched, the longer it will take to return to its former resilient state – and the greater the possibility that it will not spring back the next time something goes wrong.
The message to China’s new leadership is unmistakable: There has never been a more urgent time to get on with the heavy lifting of rebalancing and reform. Now is the time to implement the measures that will accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.
The agenda is long, but it is hardly a secret. It includes developing the services sector, funding the social safety net, liberalizing an antiquated residential-permit system (hukou), reforming state-owned enterprises, and ending financial repression on households by lifting artificially low interest rates on savings.
Failure to act quickly on this program would leave China far too vulnerable to the inevitable next shock in a crisis-battered world. In the absence of rebalancing, any one of several potential tipping points could seriously compromise the economy’s ability to pull off another soft landing: deteriorating credit quality in the banking system; weakening export competitiveness as wages rise; key environmental, governance, and social problems (namely, pollution, corruption, and inequality); and, of course, foreign-policy missteps, as suggested by escalating problems with Japan.
The Chinese economy has come through two major global crises in the past four years. On the surface, its resilience has been impressive – the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, an unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable economy risks losing its capacity for resilience. Without rebalancing and reforms, the days of the automatic Chinese soft landing may be over.
I have been an optimist about China for 15 years. I still am. But the clock is ticking. Wen Jiabao’s critique six years ago was a powerful diagnosis of the Old China’s flaws that pointed to the Next China’s hopes and dreams. It remains a blueprint that China’s new leadership cannot ignore. Time is no longer on China’s side. It must act now.
Hasta el momento el crecimiento.económico ha impedido que el país se estanque; sin embargo, pronto la creciente corrupción traerá riesgos y colapsos políticos o sociales... 100% Leo Arouet 5 days ago , China se enfrenta ahora a varias dificultades y problemas que son inherentes a todo crecimiento económico. Carol Maczinsky 5 days ago A Chinese hard landing is just a matter of time. Like a turkey earthquake in Istanbul. ACchinese collapse would also fix the US issues and lead to a breakup of China into smaller pieces. China is the new Austrohungarian empire. srinivasan gopalan @geeyes34 6 days ago The author while setting out the agenda for China under the new leadership for a consumer-led economy has conspicuously side-stepped the crucial issue of freedom and liberty to its citizenry. In the absence of fundamental rights that guarantee implicit liberty, no society can become consumerist because the omission of this option or choice militates against offer of a plethora of choices the consumer culture embodies. If development and grandeur were to be secured at the suppression of basic rights, then no society can look forward to future with high hopes. China's place in the comity of nations needs to be natural and should not be born out of the fear of its economic success or military might when political rights to its millions of people remain a pipe-dream even to this day. It is high time the new leadership followed the daring path of Deng when he launched economic reform through market model for progress and prosperity by going in for democratic paradigm of governance so that the rest of the world would feel that a nation with guaranteed political rights to its millions would dare not draw swords with its neighbours or opponents. This is so because any misadventure or foolhardiness on the part of the Chinese authorities should bring immense miseries to its people who might not like to invite trouble when they enjoy the bliss of consumerist economy and the ironical and unique model of Marxist- market developmental model . G.Srinivasan, Journalist, new delhi, inde Expand 100% Paul Mathew Mathew 1 week ago If China were to be a consumer-driven economy anywhere remotely similar to the US... that would be the end of the world as we know it. In case the brain dead economists hadn't noticed, we live in a finite world with finite resources. We are already peaking out on CHEAP oil and that is putting a massive drag on the global economy. Can you imagine if China was to fire on all cylinders? Expand pingfan hong 1 week ago Technically, in terms of sequential quarterly growth, the growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 was still lower than that of the 3rd quarter, too early to claim a victory of soft landing for China, although I agree with the author that China has an ample policy space to prevent a hard landing. The uncertainty remains, however, on whether the new government is still willing to rely on the old tricks to stimulate the economic growth if the economy continues to soften. The excess capacity in many industrial sectors remains worrisome. Expand Jan Smith 1 week ago The late 20th century global system--among the largest national economies, one liberal (USA), and three mercantilists (China, Japan, Germany)--was unsustainable. Two of the mercantilist nations became much richer, and the liberal nation poorer (way poorer than it will admit), until the system crashed. So a prominent liberal economist here advises the most successful mercantilist nation to become liberal. Will it take that advice, do you think? Not until the liberal nation retaliates with mercantilism of its own, I suspect. The Fed seems to know this but the Fed will need a lot of help--a steep VAT, deniable tariffs, etc. Expand 100% Zsolt Hermann 1 week ago There are two simple reasons why China, and in fact all the other countries cannot avoid a total collapse unless they change the present system fundamentally: 1. The world is fully interconnected and interdependent as the article itself also suggests. Thus there cannot be nations, regions, even individuals that can disconnect, pull away from the whole network. On the other hand even the smallest nation falling can pull the whole network with it. From now on only complete, and real, global and mutual cooperation from the planning to the acting level can be successful. 2. The present overproduction, over consumption economic model, regardless of the governing structure serving it is unnatural and unsustainable. Only when we take into consideration the closed natural system we exist in, and natural desires and necessities without artificially inflated yearnings and cravings, then we would be able to build a sustainable system. This is true to China as well as any other country or individual. Expand Frank O'Callaghan 6 days ago Zsolt Hermann is right, but the unbalanced consumption should be fixed by increasing the resources to the poor. x Newsart for The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Recommended for you The Limits of China’s Consumer Revolution Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/chinese-economic-resilience-is-weakening-by-stephen-s--roach#APOEWK3XzY4xfdrW.99
● 史蒂文·罗奇 中国又一次证明不看好它的人是错误的。其经济增长在2012年最后一个季度提速至7.9%——比第三季度的7.4%国内生产总值（GDP）增长速度高出半个百分点。经过连续十个季度的减速后，这次提速意义非凡，标志着中国经济在略短于四年的时间内第二次实现了软着陆。 尽管有很多关于中国经济将来会转向内需导向的说法，它现在还是非常依赖出口和外部需求为其经济增长的主要动力。中国最近两次经济减速都紧随其最大的两个国外市场——欧洲和美国——的经济衰退之后，并不是巧合。就像2009年初的软着陆发生在美国引发的可怕危机后那样，最近这一次的软着陆则紧跟在欧洲主权债务危机之后。 中国有几个实力来源，让它能够在过去四年里承受严峻的外部冲击。大量储蓄（GDP的53%）所构成的缓冲及外汇储备（3.3万亿美元）是其中最重要的。此外，不像已用尽了大部分传统反周期政策的西方国家，如果形势需要，中国还保持着财政及货币政策调整的巨大空间。同样地，强大的城市化动力继续为中国的高投资经济提供坚固的支持，并让相对贫穷的农民工能够通过在城市找到收入更高的工作来增加收入。 然而，这也许是中国最后一次能够在增长不受影响的情况下避过外部冲击。其总理温家宝早在约六年前就提出了这种可能性，他在2007年3月指出：看似辉煌的中国经济已变得“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、并最终不可持续”了。 自那时起，中国的许多固有优势被频繁的外部冲击削弱了。银行业仍在清理2008年全球危机后遗留下来的不良贷款。对那些第一次移居到城市的人来说，要找到负担得起的房子已成为一个日益严重的问题。腐败丑闻和可能带来的相关政治动乱风险也让人们感到不安——至少在去年共产党领导层权力交接之前的数月是这样的。 换句话说，温家宝“四不”所指的经济弱点已显著加剧了。中国经济确实已变得更不稳定，它的实际GDP增长于2009年大幅放缓，2012年也是如此。发展不平衡也变得更严重——投资占GDP的比重接近50%，而私人消费下跌至不到GDP的35%。 同样地，中国也变得更加不协调或者说碎片化，这是因为其收入差距一直在扩大。而发展的可持续性正被环境退化和污染破坏，这对中国的大气层和水供构成了越来越大的威胁。 简而言之，中国的增长模式被前所未有地扩展。而就像一块布料一样，它被拉伸的时间越长，要回到原来有弹性的状态所需要的时间就越长——而且越有可能在下一次出了什么差错时，再也恢复不到原有的状态。 这给新一届中国领导人传递的信息是很明确的：从来没有任何时候像现在这样迫切需要大力进行再平衡和改革。实施加速经济过渡到更为以消费者为导向经济的措施，现在正是时候。 要做的事很多，但这已不是什么秘密了，包括发展服务业、资助社会安全网、放宽过时的户口政策、改革国有企业、并通过提高被刻意降低的储蓄利率来结束对家庭的金融压迫。 如果不能迅速地实施这些措施，在这个饱受危机冲击的世界，中国可能经不起下一次不可避免的冲击。若没有进行重新平衡，几个潜在临界点中的任何一个都可能严重危害中国经济实现另一次软着陆的能力：银行体系信贷质量的恶化；因工资上涨被削弱的出口竞争力；关键的环境、治理和社会问题（即污染、腐败和贫富差距的问题）；当然，还有例如与日本之间不断升级的问题可能带来的外交政策失误。 中国经济在过去四年安然度过了两个重大的全球危机。表面上，其韧性令人印象深刻——正如中国领导人一直对全世界强调的一样，它是第一个恢复过来的国家。然而，表面之下，这个不平衡、不稳定、不协调、无法持续发展的经济体可能会失去复原能力。如果不进行再平衡和改革，中国自动软着陆的好日子也许就再也不会有了。 我15年来一直对中国经济保持乐观，现在依然如此。但时间不等人。温家宝六年前的评论是对过去中国缺陷强有力的诊断，并指出了未来中国的希望和梦想所在。它仍然是中国新一代领导人不能忽视的蓝图。对中国来说，时间已经很紧迫了，它必须马上采取行动。 作者Stephen S. Roach是耶鲁大学教授，摩根士丹利亚洲前主席。
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