转：地缘政治-我们离战争还远吗？- 翻译TARPLEY.net 几篇文章。

原文{［转］我们离战争还远吗？http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/military/755000.html}

转载：新浪猴王的博客 http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_593b235601017xbm.html

简单翻译：“我们离战争还远吗”文中的链接－了解什么叫做地缘政治

很多人不了解什么叫做地缘政治，美国已经把刀架到我们脖子上面了，我们必须做好军事斗争的准备。1979年我们联合美国打击苏联是对的，2011年我们联合俄罗斯打击美国也是对的，这个世界上面没有永远的朋友也没有永远的敌人，只有永远的利益。

 

US, Pakistan Near Open War; Chinese Ultimatum Warns Washington Against Attack

[翻译]

美国和巴基斯坦接近于公开化战争,中国最后通牒华盛顿将进行反击

 

Webster G. Tarpley, Ph.D.
TARPLEY.net
May 20, 2011

China has officially put the United States on notice that Washington’s planned attack on Pakistan will be interpreted as an act of aggression against Beijing. (中国官方已经正式通告华盛顿,美国对巴基斯坦的攻击将被视作对北京的侵略)This blunt warning represents the first known strategic ultimatum received by the United States in half a century, going back to Soviet warnings during the Berlin crisis of 1958-1961, and indicates the grave danger of general war growing out of the US-Pakistan confrontation.(美国上一次收到这种不客气的警告,还是半个世纪前,在1958年-1961年在柏林危机中,苏联对美国的战略最后通牒,这也预示着美国和巴基斯坦的冲突将会带来严重的战争危险)

“Any Attack on Pakistan Would be Construed as an Attack on China”

任何攻击巴基斯坦的行为将被视作对中国的攻击

Responding to reports that China has asked the US to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty in the aftermath of the Bin Laden operation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu used a May 19 press briefing to state Beijing’s categorical demand that the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan must be respected.” (中国要求在美国在执行本拉登的行动后, 必须尊重巴基斯坦的主权和领土完整) According to Pakistani diplomatic sources cited by the Times of India, China has “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China.” This ultimatum was reportedly delivered at the May 9 China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in Washington,(这个最后通牒是5月9号在华盛顿举行的中美战略与经济对话中提出来的) where the Chinese delegation was led by Vice Prime Minister Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo.¹ Chinese warnings are implicitly backed up by that nation’s nuclear missiles, including an estimated 66 ICBMs, some capable of striking the United States, plus 118 intermediate-range missiles, 36 submarine-launched missiles, and numerous shorter-range systems.(中国在提出警告的同时.含蓄的表达了中国的核武器威力,包括66枚洲际弹道导弹…)

Support from China is seen by regional observers as critically important for Pakistan, which is otherwise caught in a pincers between the US and India: “If US and Indian pressure continues, Pakistan can say ‘China is behind us. Don’t think we are isolated, we have a potential superpower with us,’” (巴基斯坦的战略研究员认为如果美国和印度持续施压,中国会在背后支持我们,我们并不是孤立的)Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired Pakistani general, told AFP.²

The Chinese ultimatum came during the visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani in Beijing, (巴基斯坦总理在北京访问期间,中方发出了这份最后通牒)during which the host government announced the transfer of 50 state-of-the-art JF-17 fighter jets to Pakistan, immediately and without cost.³ Before his departure, Gilani had stressed the importance of the Pakistan-China alliance, proclaiming: “We are proud to have China as our best and most trusted friend. And China will always find Pakistan standing beside it at all times….When we speak of this friendship as being taller than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans it truly captures the essence of our relationship.”⁴ These remarks were greeted by whining from US spokesmen, including Idaho Republican Senator Risch.

The simmering strategic crisis between the United States and Pakistan exploded with full force on May 1, with the unilateral and unauthorized US commando raid alleged to have killed the phantomatic Osama bin Laden in a compound at Abottabad, a flagrant violation of Pakistan’s national sovereignty.(美军特种部队今年5月1号在巴基斯坦境内击毙基地组织头目本拉登, 导致了美国和巴基斯坦之间一触即发的战争危机) The timing of this military stunt designed to inflame tensions between the two countries had nothing to do with any alleged Global War on Terror, and everything to do with the late March visit to Pakistan of Prince Bandar, the Saudi Arabian National Security Council chief. This visit had resulted in a de facto alliance between Islamabad and Riyadh, with Pakistan promising troops to put down any US-backed color revolution in the kingdom, while extending nuclear protection to the Saudis, thus making them less vulnerable to US extortion threats to abandon the oil-rich monarchy to the tender mercies of Tehran. A joint move by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to break out of the US empire, whatever one may think of these regimes, would represent a fatal blow for the fading US empire in South Asia.(大意,这次军事行动与全球反恐毫无干系,却与沙特阿拉伯国家安全委员会主席于3月下旬拜访巴基斯坦班达尔亲王有密切关系.巴基斯坦承诺用军队来打击以美国为背后支持的颜色革命,并将核保护延伸到沙特阿拉伯,从此可以使得美国对于石油国家君主制的威胁脆弱许多,巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的联盟将会是对于美帝国在南亚的致命打击)

As for the US claims concerning the supposed Bin Laden raid of May 1, they are a mass of hopeless contradictions which changes from day to day. An analysis of this story is best left to literary critics and writers of theatrical reviews. The only solid and uncontestable fact which emerges is that Pakistan is the leading US target — thus intensifying the anti-Pakistan US policy which has been in place since Obama’s infamous December 2009 West Point speech.(大意,有一点无可争辩的事实,在2009年12月份奥巴马在西点军校的讲话,已经明确了巴基斯坦将成为美国的主要打击目标)

Gilani: Full Force Retaliation to Defend Pakistan’s Strategic Assets

吉拉尼: 将全力保护巴基斯坦的战略资产(针对美印的战略核联盟)

The Chinese warning to Washington came on the heels of Gilani’s statement to the Pakistan Parliament declaring: “Let no one draw any wrong conclusions. Any attack against Pakistan’s strategic assets, whether overt or covert, will find a matching response…. Pakistan reserves the right to retaliate with full force. No one should underestimate the resolve and capability of our nation and armed forces to defend our sacred homeland.”⁵ A warning of full force retaliation from a nuclear power such as Pakistan needs to be taken seriously, even by the hardened aggressors of the Obama regime.

The strategic assets Gilani is talking about are the Pakistani nuclear forces, the key to the country’s deterrent strategy against possible aggression by India, egged on by Washington in the framework of the US-India nuclear cooperation accord. The US forces in Afghanistan have not been able to conceal their extensive planning for attempts to seize or destroy Pakistan’s nuclear bombs and warheads. According to a 2009 Fox News report, “The United States has a detailed plan for infiltrating Pakistan and securing its mobile arsenal of nuclear warheads if it appears the country is about to fall under the control of the Taliban, Al Qaeda or other Islamic extremists.” This plan was developed by General Stanley McChrystal when he headed the US Joint Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. JSOC, the force reportedly involved in the Bin Laden operation. is composed of Army Delta Force, Navy SEALs and “a high-tech special intelligence unit known as Task Force Orange.” “Small units could seize [Pakistan’s nukes], disable them, and then centralize them in a secure location,” claimed a source quoted by Fox.⁶

Obama Has Already Approved Sneak Attack on Pakistan’s Nukes

(奥巴马已经批准了偷袭巴基斯坦的核设施)

According to the London Sunday Express, Obama has already approved an aggressive move along these lines: “US troops will be deployed in Pakistan if the nation’s nuclear installations come under threat from terrorists out to avenge the killing of Osama Bin Laden… The plan, which would be activated without President Zardari’s consent, provoked an angry reaction from Pakistan officials… Barack Obama would order troops to parachute in to protect key nuclear missile sites. These include the air force’s central Sargodha HQ, home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft and at least 80 ballistic missiles.” According to a US official, “The plan is green lit and the President has already shown he is willing to deploy troops in Pakistan if he feels it is important for national security.”⁷

Extreme tension over this issue highlights the brinksmanship and incalculable folly of Obama’s May 1 unilateral raid, which might easily have been interpreted by the Pakistanis as the long-awaited attack on their nuclear forces. According to the New York Times, Obama knew very well he was courting immediate shooting war with Pakistan, and “insisted that the assault force hunting down Osama bin Laden last week be large enough to fight its way out of Pakistan if confronted by hostile local police officers and troops.”

The Shooting Has Already Started

(当5月17号,北约的美国直升机侵犯巴基斯坦的领空,意味着这场战争已经开始了)

The shooting between US and Pakistani forces escalated on Tuesday May 17, when a US NATO helicopter violated Pakistani airspace in Waziristan. Pakistani forces showed heightened alert status, and opened fire immediately, with the US helicopter shooting back. (当美国的直升机侵犯巴基斯坦领空瓦济里斯坦,巴军方处于高度戒备状态.并立即开火,美国直升机进行了还击)Two soldiers at a Pakistani check post on the border in the Datta Khel area were wounded.⁸

Possible Pakistani retaliation for this border incursion came in Peshawar on Friday, May 20, when a car bomb apparently targeted a 2-car US consulate convoy, but caused no American deaths or injuries. One Pakistani bystander was killed, and several wounded. In other intelligence warfare, Ary One television reported the name of the CIA station chief in Islamabad, the second top US resident spook there to have his cover blown in six months.

US Envoy Grossman Rejects Pakistani Calls To Stop Border Violations

美国特使格罗斯曼拒绝巴基斯坦关于停止边界侵犯的呼吁

US Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman, the replacement for the late Richard Holbrooke, on May 19 arrogantly rejected Pakistani calls for guarantees that no more Abottabad-style unilateral operations would be mounted in Pakistan.⁹ In refusing to offer such assurances, Grossman claimed that Pakistani officials had never demanded respect for their border in recent years.¹⁰

In the midst of this strategic crisis, India has gone ahead with inherently provocative scheduled military maneuvers targeting Pakistan. (在这场战略危机中,印度在推进计划内的针对巴基斯塔挑衅的军事演习活动)This is the “Vijayee Bhava” (Be Victorious) drill, held in the Thar desert of north Rajastan,. This atomic-biological-chemical Blitzkrieg drill involves the Second Armored Corps, “considered to be the most crucial of the Indian Army’s three principal strike formations tasked with virtually cutting Pakistan in two during a full-fledged war.”¹¹

The Nation: A CIA-RAW-Mossad Pseudo-Taliban Countergang

One way to provide the provocation needed to justify a US-Indian attack on Pakistan would be through an increase in terrorist actions attributable to the so-called Taliban.(美印联盟攻击巴基斯坦的理由之一,可以是所谓的塔利班恐怖主义活动的增加) According to the mainstream Pakistani media, the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, and the Indian RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) have created their own version of the Taliban in the form of a terrorist countergang which they control and direct. According to one account, “Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives have infiltrated the Taliban and Al-Qaeda networks, and have created their own Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) force in order to destabilize Pakistan.” The former Punjab Regional Commander of the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), retired Brigadier General Aslam Ghuman, commented: “During my visit to the US, I learned that the Israeli spy agency Mossad, in connivance with Indian agency RAW, under the direct supervision of CIA, planned to destabilize Pakistan at any cost.”¹² Was this countergang responsible for last week’s double bombing in Waziristan, which killed 80 paramilitary police?

According to the same account, Russian intelligence “disclosed that CIA contractor Raymond Davis and his network had provided Al-Qaeda operatives with chemical, nuclear and biological weapons, so that US installations may be targeted and Pakistan be blamed….” Davis, a JSOC veteran himself, was arrested for the murder of two ISI agents, but then released by the Pakistani government after a suspicious hue and cry by the State Department.

CIA Claims The New Al Qaeda Boss Lives in Waziristan

美国中央情报局宣布基地组织的新老板生活在巴基斯坦的瓦济里斯坦

If the US needs a further pretext for additional raids, it will also be easy to cite the alleged presence in Waziristan of Saif al-Adel, now touted by the CIA as bin Laden’s likely successor as boss of al Qaeda.¹³ It is doubtless convenient for Obama’s aggressive intentions that Saif al-Adel can be claimed to reside so close to what is now the hottest border in the world, and not in Finsbury or Flatbush.

In the wake of the unauthorized May 1 US raid, the Pakistani military chief General Kayani had issued his own warning that similar “misadventures” could not be repeated, while announcing that US personnel inside Pakistan would be sharply reduced. In the estimate of one ISI source, there are currently about 7,000 CIA operatives in country, many of them unknown to the Pakistani government. US-Pakistan intelligence sharing has reportedly been downgraded. In response to Kayani’s moves, the CIA limited hangout operation known as Wikileaks once again showed its real nature by attempting to discredit the Pakistan commander with dubious US cable reports that he had demanded more Predator drone attacks, not fewer, in recent years.

Especially since Obama’s West Point speech, the CIA has used Predator drone attacks to slaughter civilians with the goal of fomenting civil war inside Pakistan, leading to a breakup of the country along the ethnic lines of Punjab, Sind, Baluchistan, and Pushtunistan. The geopolitical goal is to destroy Pakistan’s potential to be the energy corridor between Iran and China. Selig Harrison has emerged as a top US advocate for Baluchistan succession.

Since May 1, six reported US Predator drones attacks have slain some 42 Pakistani civilians, goading public opinion into a frenzy of anti-US hatred. In response, a joint session of the Pakistani parliament voted unanimously on May 14 to demand an end to American missile strikes, calling on the government to cut NATO’s supply line to Afghanistan if the attacks should continue.¹⁴ Since the Karachi to Khyber Pass supply line carries as much as two thirds of the supplies needed by the Afghanistan invaders, such a cutoff would cause chaos among the NATO forces. All of this points to the inherent insanity of provoking war with the country your supply line runs through.

US Wants to Use Taliban Boss Mullah Omar Against Pakistan

美国想使用塔利班的老大奥马尔来对付巴基斯坦

The State Department dropped all preconditions for negotiating with the Taliban back in February, and the US is now reported by the Washington Post to be talking with envoys of Mullah Omar, the legendary one-eyed leader of the Quetta Shura or Taliban ruling council. It is apparent that the US is offering the Taliban an alliance against Pakistan. US regional envoy Grossman is hostile to the Pakistanis, but when it comes to the Taliban he has been nicknamed “Mr. Reconciliation.”¹⁵ By contrast, the US is said to be determined to assassinate the head of the Haqqani network using a Bin Laden-type raid. The Pakistanis are equally determined to keep the Haqqani as an ally.(大意,美国是在提供一个针对巴基斯坦的塔利班联盟,美国的特使格罗斯曼对巴基斯坦是相当的敌视,但对于塔利班.却被称作和解先生,美国把哈卡尼网络组织作为基地头目本拉登之后的需要消灭的下一个目标,而巴基斯坦把哈卡尼视作同盟)

If China stands behind Pakistan, then Russia might be said to stand behind China. (如果中国站在巴基斯坦身后,那俄罗斯可能会宣称占在中国身后)Looking forward to the upcoming June 15 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Chinese President Hu praised Sino-Russian relations as being “at an unprecedented high point,” with an “obvious strategic ingredient.” (可以看到的是,在接下来的6月15号的上海合作组织会议上,中国胡锦涛主席将把中俄联盟提高到一个前所未有的高度,是一个关键的战略联盟)In a press conference this week, Russian President Medvedev was obliged indirectly to acknowledge that the much-hyped Obama “reset” with Russia had amounted to very little, since the US ABM missile program in Romania and the rest of eastern Europe, so obviously directed against Russia, means that the START treaty is of dubious value, thus raising the specter of a “new Cold War.” (在本周的记者招待会上,俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫不得不间接承认,奥巴马大肆宣传的”重启”美俄联盟可能性已经非常小,因为美国设置在东欧和罗马尼亚的反导导弹,明显是针对俄罗斯的,这也意味着美俄核裁军计划受到影响,这样相当于新冷战的幽灵的出现)Given the NATO assault on Libya, there would be no UN resolution against Syria, said Medvedev. Putin has been right all along, and Medvedev is trying to imitate Putin to salvage some chance of remaining in power.(鉴于北约对利比亚的袭击,也不会有反对叙利亚的联合国决议,梅德韦杰夫说.普京是一直正确的,梅氏正在试图通过模仿普京以在执政期间挽回一点机会)

Are We in July 1914?

我们是处在1914年的7月吗

The crisis leading to World War I began with the Sarajevo assassinations of June 28, 1914, but the first major declaration of war did not occur until August 1. In the interim month of July 1914, large parts of European public opinion retreated into a dreamlike trance, an idyllic la-la land of elegiac illusion, even as the deadly crisis gathered momentum. Something similar can be seen today. Many Americans fondly imagine that the alleged death of Bin Laden marks the end of the war on terror and the Afghan War. Instead, the Bin Laden operation has clearly ushered in a new strategic emergency. Forces which had opposed the Iraq war, from MSNBC to many left liberals of the peace movement, are variously supporting Obama’s bloody aggression in Libya, or even celebrating him as a more effective warmonger than Bush-Cheney because of his supposed success at the expense of Bin Laden. In reality, if there were ever a time to mobilize to stop a new and wider war, this is it.(大意,许多美国人天真地以为,本拉登的死亡意味着反恐和阿富汗战争的结束,事实却是,击毙本拉登的行动带来了一场新的战略危机)

 

原贴重发

［转］我们离战争还远吗？

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/military/755000.html