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飓风过后有晴天,噩梦醒来是早晨

(2011-08-29 14:03:48) 下一个

标题有点夸张,现在还不能说是晴天,但一个月内FAS被腰斩的感觉的确犹如噩梦。好在飓风过后的第一天涨势让人又看到了噩梦初醒后的曙光。明天涨跌虽然不能肯定,但是年底收复实地更有信心了。


这次Irene让俺想起了7年前俺去Florida遭遇的史上第四大飓风Charley的经历。从Florida回来后还在大千写了一通股市随想。今天拿出来看看,有点惭愧。俺在7年多前总结的一条教训是:mitigate the risks, be prepared for the worst, and get out of harm's way while you can.


7年前俺总结的教训这次也没有实践,大掉前已经有小掉不断的预兆。设置保护或减少3x多仓应该是当时比较明智的措施。但是俺又一次轻敌了。想想这次东部几州很重视这个并不上档次的Irene是绝对有必要的。Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.


http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView_archives.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=150988&yr=2004




















some random thoughts
来源: smartmoney04-08-18 16:28:08[档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]































     

After a 9 day vacation trip that sailed into harm's way, I finally managed to fly back home late Sunday night. My 发财树 that I planted 3 months ago grew some new branches, and my portfolio also grew a little in the week I was on vacation. More importantly, I survived the hurricane and enjoyed a very memorable vacation. Life is good. I can now chat on daqian again and share some of my travel experience and thoughts.



Hurricane is unpredicatable just as stock markets are difficult to time
I booked the plan tickets and rental car two months ago for this family vacation in Orland and Tempa bay areas, never expected that charley and bonnie would visit the sunshine state in the same week. To make it even worse, Charley changed its course, and its eye striked orlando area on Friday night. I tried to changed the return flights from Saturday to anytime before Friday afternoon. NWA first denied my request when the seats were still available. When they allowed me to change, it's too late, there were no seats available. When I found out all the flights were canceled on Saturday morning after the storm, I already checked out hotel and returned rental car.
Lession learned: mitigate the risks, be prepared for the worst, and get out of harm's way while you can. I should have just paid change fee and flew out of there on Wed or Thursday.



Think possitively, act posstively and possitive results will come
Stranded in the airport, without a car to drive around, without being able to call out using my cellphone, I was a little frusted initially. All the direct return flights til 21st were sold out. I wanted to whine to NWA representatives about their bad services and their refusing changing my flight earlier. Then I realized whining would not help me to deal with adversity. Focusing on negative things would only add frustration and other bad feelings. Frustration and regret would only ruin my vacation. What happened already happened. I explored alternatives with NWA representatives. They then arranged tickets for my family to fly Continental from Miami to Houston then to DTW. I rented another car, drove 3 hours to Miami, toured the beach and flew home on Sunday night. What are the possitive things out of this experience?
first of all, we survived a category 4 hurricane! and we, especially my son, now have first hand knowlege about hurrican. Secondly, we toured one more beautiful city Miami otherwise we would not have seen. Thirdly, I got a free rental upgrade volvo 80 with gps:) the florida turnpike was free too the day after the hurricane. (BTW, megellan gps system is really helpful to drive around in a new city. It's really cool.) The list can go on and on...



Be a calm captain instead of whining baby
4th day into the vacation, my 7 year old heard me talking on the phone with NWA to change flights, he also heard the hurrican on the TV. He wept and kept asking if hurrican would hurt us and when we could get home. Many children have storm anxiety. We just toured Universal studio that day. My son was very scared by the special effect shows "Twister" and "Earth quake". His knowledge about cyclone is all from dramatic scary scenes on TV and movies. I could totally understand his fear for storms. But I am the captain of the family. If I also show my nerviousness, the vacation would be ruined, we would spent rest 4 days in fear in hotel room measerablly. Instead, we continued our vacation outdoor as normal until Friday afternoon. Seeing dad behaving like normal, my son also calmed down and forgot the upcoming storm. We waited out in the hotel room Friday night. Now my son knows that hurricane is powerful, but he is no longer that fearful because he experienced it and survied. We all can survive a powerful storm as long as we protected ourself. I now also understand a little better about some people's anxiety in a downtrend market. But I do hope adults here act better than a child, stop whining about bad luck in the markets. Respect the power of the markets, but don't be overwhelmed by the fear.
Market goes up and down. Life goes one. Don't blame markets or others for your losses. Be a man or at least act like a man!


   

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