RCA认为股市下跌是成熟牛市的一次调整,不是熊市的开始.

今晨,看到RCA的周报指出:当前股市下跌是成熟牛市的一次调整. 有关观点全文如下:

A Maturing Equity Bull Market

According to our Global Investment Strategy service, the recent shakeout in risky assets should be regarded as part of the maturing process of the equity bull market.

This episode is very similar to the recession fears of 1998, which prompted Fed easing. The subsequent rally in stocks was powerful but led to increased volatility and ultimately ended in a crash two years later. We suspect that a similar pattern could play out this time around. Equities still offer reasonable value and should receive significant upside as investment capital gets funneled into fewer assets. Narrowing breadth of asset price inflation is a typical characteristic of a maturing market. In this cycle, commodities, government bonds, real estate and credit products have already largely been inflated but stocks still have room for further multiple expansion once the current turmoil in the credit market subsides. However, investors should be prepared for permanently higher volatility, which tends to accompany richer valuations. Bottom line: The bull market in equities, while in a maturing phase, should offer investors significant upside over the next two years.

附: TSX 1998年股灾及其恢复图:



由上图可见,98年的股灾, TSX也是在7月中(见图中圈)开始突然加速下跌, 下跌了7周后起稳,然后用了7周的时间筑成W底,,于10月下旬开始突破底部上行.


下图是当时的日线图,它更能反映其筑底的过程和所花的时间:




由这个日线图可见, TSX 98年的调整波: A波用了7周时间, B波用了15个交易日, C波用了12个交易日. C波的最底点大约在10月上旬左右.

结论:

若本次TSX调整果真如RCA所分析的那样,即与98年的情形相似并重复历史的话,那么TSX有可能在下周冲击MA50,及试探14000,这样一来,从A波底部到B点可能以来用了大约16天, 若C波用2~4周话,那末, TSX将有可能在9月下旬或10月上旬接近C波底部,然后结束调整开始上行.