Riding the waves of markets

Just a collection of my ideas about US and China stock markets. Let's ride the waves of the markets to financial freedom!
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答美西游子大侠问Why am I so bullish on China

(2009-07-02 15:42:15) 下一个

Why am I so bullish on China? Actually China is bullish as anyone can see, I am just following it. Many ppl are afraid of the drops of last year, so 做股票投资的都要有选择性失忆. Or choose to exit at the right time. Anyway, yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mistery, and today is a gift. That's why it's called present. 就让我们enojoy当下这个present吧. 
TA aside, let me spend some time to talk about China in terms of macro economy here:
1. Massive government spending kept the economy from falling. Many economists said that it can't be done, it can't be sustained. You know what, that's why they are "economists", not investors like Warren Buffett and George Soros. They are academics and ain't knowing nothing about how stock market works. What the govt did was to instill CONFIDENCE into the market, so it would find its bottom from further deteriorating. And brave ppl (or ppl /w inside info) would rush into the market for bottom-fishing. Hence, an abrupt V-shape bottom was formed.
2. Liquidity. China central bank has been lending like crazy this year. 水涨船高. When deflation threat was defeated, asset inflation always followed.
3. Stimulus pkg did a good job as consumption was up by 15% in last quarter's GDP report. It showed that the domestic demand can be stimulated to make up some loss in export.
4. After the govt pushed out series of stimulus and subsidiy programs, they decided to have new IPOs and 国企股转社保基金. These two policies were like steroids and kept on pushing the market. Why? Because they understood that simply printing money was not enough. The policies were 2nd waves of stimulus. When stock and housing markets are rising, ppl tend to think they are richer and go out to spend more. And new IPOs can attract new money to flow into market.
5. 一个开放统一的大中华经济区is looming on the horizon. Mainland capital can flow to Taiwan. 资金自由流动,市场开放统一,潜力无穷. That can stir up boundless imagination and foreign capital already flew into mainland and Taiwan to drive up both markets. This kind of historic event can become an enormous driver for a new prosperous era similar to 中国入世贸 or 欧元区成立. Many ppl would suspect how great it will be. But right now, the concept is like a 概念股被炒得热火朝天. Maybe one day it will not turn out to be great, then it's time to exit the market.
6. RMB国际化 is another economic driver. The economic power of China will be expanded into other countries, and that can expand its financial system to cope with increasing demand of the currency. Other countries can reduce 汇率风险 by ditching US dollar in trades. So 结算方便,刺激贸易增长. Right now it's like another 概念股, but it can certainly attract more foreign investments.

These are a few reasons why China market is so bullish. You may think of more. But most of time, you don't wait to summarize a list of reasons to get in market. When it's on the rise, no matter what happened in the past, you can only go with the flow. Of course, China is not without her problems, like many industrials still relying on massive manual labor, conflicts btw the common ppl and the ruling party, growing extreme disparity between the rich and the poor, and so on. But institutions are always short-sighted. When they see the opportunities to jump up, they act without conscience. And if you don't move with them, don't kick yourself in the future for missed opportunity.

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