研究报告：交易量今年首季减20％至25％ 本地私宅价格整体趋稳

龚慧婷 (2011-03-29)

分析师说，私宅价格已出现趋软迹象，显示降温措施已开始生效，政府短期内推出新降温措施的可能性不大。 　　最新的房地产研究报告显示，与去年第四季比较，私宅交易量在今年第一季减少了20至25％，整体价格已趋稳，有分析师猜测，政府在短期内再推出新降温措施的可能性不大。 　　莱坊(Knight Frank)研究部主管方宝顺在其研究报告中更指出，整体私宅价格（包括由发展商直接售卖的新单位、楼花转售和转售私宅）大致已趋稳，特别是大众私宅价格已出现趋软迹象，显示降温措施已开始生效，政府应该不会再出手。 　　他指出，今年首季的住宅房地产价格，上下的波动不超过2％，已经稳定下来，达到了政府希望让房地产价格维持稳定和可持续发展的目标。   　　他也预测，今年全年，大众私宅的价格将下跌最多达5％。 　　昨天发布新报告的还有世邦魏理仕（CBRE）和戴德梁行(DTZ)。 　　世邦魏理仕指出，在今年第一季，由发展商直接出售的私宅，估计介于3200至3400个单位之间，比去年第四季售出的4241个单位，少了20至25％。除了成交量减少，与去年底比较，新私宅价格也大致维持平稳。 　　方宝顺也发现，不少示范单位的参观者减少，与去年下半年火热的情况相去甚远。在第一季，发展上每个月平均卖出约1100个新单位，比2010年的平均1382个单位少了约12％。 　　虽然降温措施后，买家开始采观望态度，成交量下跌是预期中的事，但成交量下跌的幅度，没有分析师较早前预期的大。 　　售价比之前稍降 　　尽管如此，方宝顺昨天也指出，整体价格，尤其是大众私宅的价格，已开始趋软。在一些情况下，发展商开始推出一些“好康”，如现金回扣礼券和为最早购屋者可享有特别折扣。一些新项目在最近推出新单位时，售价也比之前的一些单位稍微便宜一点。 　　根据莱坊截至22日的数据，在首季，高档共管公寓价格季比上涨2.1％，平均成交价是每平方英尺2270元；超高档豪宅价格稍下跌0.3％，达3229元；中档私宅成交价上涨最多，达8.5％，达1670元；大众私宅价格只上涨2.2％，达900元，与去年第四季3.6％比较，涨幅收窄。 　　方宝顺说，第一季，中档私宅的涨幅比第四季的1.6％涨幅大，但主要由东海岸一些有海景的公寓带动，若加入其他地区比较，整体价格上涨的幅度其实很小。 　　他认为，接下来，随着更多发展商推出更多新项目，价格估计会进一步趋软。 　　在第一季，总价让人觉得较负担的起的“迷你型”单位，依旧受到市场欢迎。此外，一些地点好，靠近地铁站的项目也卖得不错。 　　世邦魏理仕的报告也显示，第一季卖得好的项目有靠近火车站的Spottiswoode 18，已卖出251个单位中的90％，平均尺价2000元，此外，濒水项目Waterfront Isle（561个单位）和靠近三巴旺地铁站的Canberra Residences（320个单位），也分别卖出75％的单位，尺价分别为990和830元。 　　高档买家依旧在等待时机进场，因此，豪宅项目只零星卖出一些单位。 　　世邦魏理仕私宅部执行董事陈金道也猜测，一些可能在第二季登场的新项目，包括弗洛拉通道(Flora Drive)的Hedges Park、基里尼路（Killiney Road）上的The Boutiq、汤申路上段的共管公寓和Luxus Hills有地私宅的第五期项目。 　　陈金道说：“假设经济稳定，第二季与第一季的发展步伐相同，那么，在第二季，新单位的成交量可能介于3000至3500个单位之间，价格相信不会有显著的波动。” 《联合早报》 S’pore private apartment prices climb to record high in first quarter Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 30, 2011 · Leave a Comment  Mass market prices of private apartments in Singapore have climbed to record highs in the first quarter of this year, mainly driven by demand from mainland Chinese buyers. Average values of properties are now at S$1,935 per square foot for prime areas, and S$1,043 for non-prime areas, the highest since the first quarter of 2008, according to a release from Jones Lang LaSalle. Prime market property sales continue to be dominated by foreigners, with Chinese, Indonesian and Malaysian buyers taking at least half of the sales in the first quarter of 2011. Chinese buyers have overtaken Malaysians in purchasing prime residential units and were only second to Indonesian buyers. Chinese buyers took up the largest share for mass market units, at 63 per cent, priced between S$500,000 and S$1.5 million. Their share of units priced above S$5 million in central and prime districts was at 32 per cent. “The surge in Chinese buyers in Singapore coincided with the policy tightening in China. While we do not expect a repeat of what is observed this past quarter, we can expect the number of Chinese buyers to continue at a healthy level as seen in previous quarters as the fiscal and monetary policy in China remains conducive to overseas investment by the wealthier Chinese” said Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research for South-East Asia and Singapore at Jones Lang LaSalle. While resale capital values for luxury prime and typical prime properties saw marginal increases, capital values in the Central and East Coast regions have enjoyed growth of between 2 to 2.5 per cent compared with the same quarter last year. Rental values in the Central and East Coast regions have remained stable from levels in the fourth quarter of 2010 while prime properties saw rental values only growing marginally at 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter from last year. Rental demand for smaller units softened while larger four-bedroom units in prime districts were the only residential unit type to see an increase in rental value for this quarter. Head of Residential at Jones Lang LaSalle, Ms Jacqueline Wong, said; “The preference of the expatriate community is for larger four bedroom apartments of at least 2,800 sq ft. The smaller size units are not particularly attractive as the majority of middle and upper management families relocating prefer spacious 4 bedroom units that come with entertainment areas.” Source : Channel NewsAsia – 30 Mar 2011 Residential property market rationalised by cooling measures Mar 29, 2011 - PropertyGuru.com.sg     Between 3,200 and 3,400 private homes were sold in Q1, down 20 to 25 percent from the 4,241 units sold in Q4 last year, according to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). The commercial property services firm said that home prices in the first quarter remained stable, as the cooling measures implemented on 13 January “rationalised (the) residential market”. Some of the developments that attracted buyers in the first quarter were projects located near existing or future Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) stations, as well as in places earmarked as potential growth areas. For instance, 90 percent (around 251) of the units were sold at Spottiswoode 18, which is adjacent to Tanjong Pagar Railway. Canberra Residences, which is within walking distance to Sembawang MRTstation, were nearly 75 percent sold, at an average price of S$830 psf. Meanwhile, activity in the high-end market remained subdued, as property players waited for the right opportunity to enter. Isolated units from various luxury projects were sold, with top-line prices achieved by a unit of The Orchard Residences at S$4,258 psf, as well as three units of Scotts Square at between S$4,119 psf and S$4,646 psf. A joint venture (JV) partnership between Lippo Group and CLSA Capital Partners also sold the remaining 14 units at the 26-unit The Holland Collection, at around S$50 million. This worked out to nearly S$1,600 psf for the collection of two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments. CBRE also said that since the return of the executive condominium (EC) in October 2010 after a five-year hiatus, some 1,580 ECs have been sold, comprising 71.9 percent of the 2,199 EC units launched. Small-format units also remained popular among homebuyers in Q1, with Loft@Holland, Loft@ Stevens and Palmera East being fully sold at an average price of S$2,100 psf, S$1,960 psf and S$1,255 psf respectively. Developers showed confidence in the market with their keen purchases of sites in Q1; the most contested site under the GLS programme was a condo site at Bishan Street 14. It was acquired by CapitaLand for S$550.1 million. The company also acquired the 51,185 sq ft Marine Point site for S$100.68 million (S$1,056 psf ppr), while Novelty Group successfully acquired Newton View for S$147.60 million (approximately S$1,403 psf ppr). “Moving on to the second quarter, some of the new launches to be expected are Hedges Park at Flora Drive, The Boutiq at Killiney Road, a condominium at Upper Thomson Road and Phase 5 of Luxus Hills landed project,” said Mr. Joseph Tan, Executive Director for Residential at CBRE. “Assuming a stable economy and that the market moves at the same pace as the first quarter, new home sales volume will be around 3,000 to 3,500 units in Q2 2011, with no significant fluctuations in home prices.” Home prices slip but the 'centre' still holds Central region resists overall dip for now, but luxury market also expected to stay flat. Thu, Mar 31, 2011 The Business Times By Kalpana Rashiwala SINGAPORE - Prices of completed private apartments and condos have slipped slightly, overall, as the government's cooling measures made themselves felt. But those in the most posh part of town are still holding their own. Latest flash estimates for February from the National University of Singapore show a weaker month-on-month performance in price indices compared to January. 'The Jan 13 cooling measures are certainly working,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. 'The lower loan-to- value limit has affected investors with outstanding housing loans even if they have some financial capacity to purchase another residential property.' NUS's overall Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI) dipped 0.4 per cent month on month in February, a reversal of a gain of 2.9 per cent posted in January. The sub-index for the Central region - home to Singapore's choicest residential districts (1-4 and 9-11) - rose one per cent month on month in February, a slower rise than the 3.1 per cent gain recorded in January. The sub-index for the Non-Central region (where suburban mass-market condos are located) declined 1.5 per cent in February over the preceding month, in contrast with a 2.8 per cent appreciation in January. Mr Tan predicts that private home prices in Singapore are likely to drift at current levels - 'unless the government opens the immigration tap again and removes some of these very severe cooling measures such as the seller's stamp duty rates and 60 per cent LTV for those with existing housing loans'. Meanwhile, prices in the Central region have risen at a faster clip in the first two months of this year since end-2010 than in the Non-Central region. This marks a reversal of last year's pattern. As a result, the SRPI for the Central region has finally surpassed its pre-global financial crisis peak of November 2007, albeit by just 0.1 per cent. NUS's indices are produced by the university's Institute of Real Estate Studies and cover only completed non-landed private homes. The February 2011 flash estimate for the Central region index is up 4.1 per cent from the end of last year. This is a bigger gain than the 1.3 per cent year-to-date appreciation in the index for the Non-Central region. The February Non-Central region index is up 18.8 per cent from its pre-crisis peak in January 2008. The overall SRPI has appreciated 2.5 per cent year to date and is 11.5 per cent higher than its November 2007 peak. February flash estimates reflect year-on-year increases of 10.3 per cent for the Central region, 13.1 per cent for the Non-Central region and 11.9 per cent for the overall index. International Property Advisor (IPA) chief executive Ku Swee Yong said that prices of projects such as St Thomas Suites and Trillium in the prime districts, which were completed towards the end of last year, have posted price gains as buyers viewing the finished projects have found their quality better than expected. 'Clients whom we have brought for viewing for other projects like 8 Napier and Parkview Eclat have also been impressed by the quality of finishings,' he added. Despite the NUS SRPI for the Central region outperforming that for the Non-Central region in February, Mr Ku is doubtful that this trend will prevail for the whole of this year. 'Unfortunately, wealth does not trickle from the bottom to the top,' he said. He does not expect the luxury condo market to outshine the suburban market in 2011 unless 'we see an influx of more high net worth individuals into Singapore both as tenants and buyers, and bankers receive their one and two-year bonuses again', he added. The luxury market is likely to remain flat this year in terms of both prices and transactions, Mr Ku predicts. Last year, out of the 16,292 private homes developers sold, only about 100 were above $3,000 per square foot. 'Foreigners are still scouting for buys but are not coming back to the high-end market the way they were in 2007,' he added. Agreeing, Knight Frank's Mr Tan said: 'The foreign contingent is not back in full force. And there's still a good selection of units in prime district projects available from developers, which will put pressure on prices. For these reasons, I don't see a need for further cooling measures.' This article was first published in The Business Times.