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more volatilities ?

(2007-12-19 19:24:56) 下一个
Lack of confidence is the biggest problem for the market now. Until the fear of recession can be eased, people will position themselves to a slower economy which means growth stocks(momentum) will suffer while sectors like utility, consumer staples and health care will be favored. Also, bond showed some life lately, indicating shifting to a safe heaven.

Tomorrow we will see 3rd Q GDP number, hopefully, the number could be a little stronger to support the market, otherwise, Bear will seize the moment to push the market even further down.

Friday is the option expiration day, meaning more volatilities are waiting for the market. maybe there is not much hope for the market to go higher this week.

Oracle\'s earning could provide some support for the tech. but lately, the market has ignored the good news. so, let\'s see how this news will be received tomorrow.

Nike had a good earning, but its number revealed a weak US market, just as MCD.

If people really fear about the economy growth next year, two ETF could suffer: XLI and XLB. Between the two, I probably will short XLI. With China/india seek more raw materials, it is hard to say whether the XLB will be took down for a long time. But XLI is another story. those big manufacture companys will suffer the most if recession hit
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