地震预测理论和地球物理数学究竟是些啥东东

俄罗斯科学院 IIEPT (International Institution of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics)

The problems covered by IIEPT activity and recent results are the following.

General theory of deterministic chaos.
Nonlinear dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction.
Modeling of dynamics of block and fault systems.
Algorithms for intermediate-term earthquake prediction and their successful applications worldwide.
Hierarchical models of crack formation and application of renormalisation group methods and theory of critical phenomena to the study of seismicity and earthquake prediction.
Identification of earthquake-prone areas by pattern recognition approach. This approach was applied to numerous mountain countries, and was recently expanded to active platforms (Siberian, Central Russian, and Indian ones).
Probabilistic estimation of seismic risk in terms of the damage to economy and population for the biggest cities of the world, earthquake insurance of rural dwellings in Georgia (FSU), Baikal-Amur railroad, Italy etc.
Geophysical fluid dynamics: quantitative modeling of basin evolution. An alternative mechanism of sedimentary basin subsidence has been suggested and applied to North American and some Russian basins.
Forward and inverse problems of seismology. Problems of uniqueness and stability were introduced along with the methods of reducing non-uniqueness by joint analysis of diverse data. New approaches to forward problems of surface wave propagation in laterally inhomogeneous media were found. New algorithms for inversion of surface wave data have been designed and applied to studies of lithospheric structure of different regions in Eurasia and of space-time seismic source features of recent strong earthquakes.
Signal-to-noise enhancement for a single stations and arrays and sophisticated data processing. New algorithms were developed for signal detection based on autoregressive models of seismic wave fields. They were successfully applied to detection of weak earthquakes and nuclear explosions. Detection threshold is improved by factor 10 comparing to traditional methods used in the West. New algorithms of frequency-time analysis were developed and applied to high resolution studies of dispersion and polarisation of surface waves.
Broadband seismological registration.


The current goals of the Institute are the following.

Scenarious of development of instability in hierarchical nonlinear (chaotic) system: theory and numerical simulation.
New generation of earthquake prediction algorithms, with tenfold increase of accuracy. This is based on integration of modeling, phenomenology, and neotectonics.
Instability/seismicity of platforms. Reconsideration of instability for the sites of high-risk construction.
Monitoring of stress-strain field in seismic regions. Kinematic and geometric incompatibility in the fault system.
Interaction with civic protection authorities in estimation of seismic risk and in earthquake prediction.
Geophysical fluid dynamics: interplay between mantle flows and surface processes.
New state-of-the-art broadband seismograph (now being tested in Belgium and UK).