芦笛在中东北非问题上的无知

在这个伊斯兰世界流行花儿革命的年代, 知名的网络评论家芦笛同志自然少不了激扬文字, 于是有了他发在这里的一则奇文, 下面简评一下文中的几段高论：

Quote：
布什企图将文明生活方式强行注入烂污国家，只会步那些先在中国、后在南越奋勇搅屎的老前辈的后尘，使得伊拉克、阿富汗等国更加陷入水深火热之中。

问题在于, 阿富汗本来就是塔利班(而不是“萨世俗达姆”)掌权, 现在哪一点能比当时更“水深火热”? (芦笛赞美塔利班一旦掌握政权就严禁种植鸦片, 为世界禁毒事业作出巨大贡献, 这当然又把人雷得不轻, 如果你知道安理会第1267号与1333号决议内容的话。)

再看看下面这段：

Quote：
在可预见的将来，那些烂国家是不可能建立起民主制度来的，回回国家尤其如此...从这个角度来看...苏丹等地发生的人民革命，对美国乃至整个文明世界来说都未必是福音... ...最能有效地收拾恐怖分子的，正是中东那些独裁者，已故伊拉克总统萨达姆就是一位。

芦笛在此居然把苏丹政权说成是世俗化的, 把南部的基督教黑人当成恐怖分子, 的确是语不雷人死不休了。

但是他也不得不这样睁眼说瞎话, 因为早在克林顿任内, 中情局每年给国会的报告都说伊拉克帮助苏丹发展化学武器。

In the WMD arena, Sudan has been developing the capability to produce chemical weapons for many years. In this pursuit, it has obtained help from entities in other countries, principally Iraq. Given its history in developing chemical weapons and its close relationship with Iraq, Sudan may be interested in a BW program as well.

事实上, 萨达姆政权输出WMD技术的对象还包括利比亚(注意当时卡扎菲还在积极投资国际恐怖主义业务)：

CIA analysts noted that “several hundred” Iraqi chemical and biological weapons experts had been in Libya during the decade preceding the disclosures.

关于苏丹南部叛军与北部政权谁更“世俗化”, 请看911委员会报告：

Bin Ladin agreed to help Turabi in an ongoing war against African Christian separatists in southern Sudan and also to do some road building. Turabi in return would let Bin Ladin use Sudan as a base for worldwide business operations and for preparations for jihad.

如果怀疑以上资料已失去时效性(或许Bashir已经像卡扎菲那样“从良”了), 请看国务院的2010 Human Rights Report：

Sudan, a republic with an estimated population of 40 million, is governed according to a power-sharing arrangement established by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the 22-year civil war between the North and South and established an interim Government of National Unity (GNU). The GNU is composed of the National Congress Party (NCP), dominated by Islamists from the North and ruled by authoritarian President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and his inner circle, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), led predominantly by Christians and practitioners of traditional indigenous religions from the South.

芦笛把苏丹南部那些信基督教或原始拜物教的黑人视为恐怖分子, 希望那位推行伊斯兰法律的巴希尔总统“收拾”掉他们, 这就是一个liberal的良心。

芦笛同志又曰：

Quote：
回回恐怖分子的最大克星, 不是美国也不是欧洲任何一个国家, 而是他们本国政府。最害怕也最能有效地收拾恐怖分子的, 正是中东那些独裁者, 已故伊拉克总统萨达姆就是一位。

且不说上面提到的苏丹问题, 既然萨达姆同学这么有才, 哥就不懂扎卡维(Abu Musab Zarqawi)怎么能在巴格达一住就是6个月(02年5月到11月),  约旦情报部门早在当年6月就把扎卡维的下落通知了萨达姆。约旦国王在说谎吗? 动机何在? 不是说扳倒了萨达姆就会让恐怖分子掌控伊拉克吗, 约旦这个小国为什么要引火烧身? 更早的时侯(1993年), 科威特又何苦要“诬陷”萨达姆暗杀老布什----这在当时导致美国70%的人赞同消灭萨氏政权, 不是说中东的维稳工作离了萨达姆不行吗？

扎卡维(QI.A.131.03. Ahmad Fadil Nazal al-Khalayleh)及其同伙Abu Ayyub al-Masri当年在巴格达爽了那么久, 凡有脑子的人都知道一定有萨达姆的默许(被捕的基地重要头目Abu Zubaydah承认扎卡维"had good relationships with Iraqi Intelligence")。Masri作为Egyptian Islamic Jihad的高级指挥, 于扎卡维死后成为伊拉克基地组织实际上的头号人物, 但为了让“反美武装”看上去本土化, 便扶植了一个傀儡人物Omar al-Baghdadi充当Islamic State of Iraq的最高领袖。这二位不负重望, 于2010年4月在萨达姆的家乡提克里特被伊安全部队击毙。

前中情局主任George Tenet在其07年出版的回忆录里写道：

What was even more worrisome was that by the spring and summer of 2002, more than a dozen al-Qa'ida-affiliated extremists converged on Baghdad, with apparently no harassment on the part of the Iraqi government. They had found a comfortable and secure environment in which they moved people and supplies to support Zarqawi's operations in northeastern Iraq.
... ...
More al-Qa'ida operatives would follow, including Thirwat Shihata and Yussef Dardiri[A.k.a. Abu Ayyub al-Masri], two Egyptians assessed by a senior al-Qa'ida detainee to be among the Egyptian Islamic Jihad's best operational planners, who arrived by mid-May of 2002. At times we lost track of them, though their associates continued to operate in Baghdad as of October 2002. Their activity in sending recruits to train in Zarqawi's camps was compelling enough.

There was also concern that these two might be planning operations outside Iraq. Credible information told us that Shihata was willing to strike U.S., Israeli, and Egyptian targets sometime in the future. Shihata had been linked to terrorist operations in North Africa, and while in Afghanistan he had trained North Africans in the use of truck bombs.

以上内容(以及鲍威尔在联合国讲话的同类部分)是战后被情报部门认可的, 只不过被主流媒体无视了而已, 那些听到个别人名身体就有反应的同志可以歇着了。

The CIA has not published a "fully researched, coordinated and approved position" on the postwar reporting on the former regime's links to al-Qa'ida, but has published such a paper on the postwar reporting of Abu Mus'ad al-Zarqawi and the former regime (see above). The CIA told the Committee that regarding Iraq's links to terrorism, "the research the Counterterrorist Center has done on this issue has called into question some of the reports of contacts and training...revealed other contacts of which we were unaware, and shed new light on some contacts that appeared in prewar reporting. On balance, this research suggests that the prewar judgment remains valid."

维基解密刊登的一份文件显示：Jawad Jabber Sadkhan(拘押序列号: US9IZ-000433DP)---塔利班的高级情报主管和军事指挥官---是一位伊拉克情报官员; 据其同伙供认, 此人“admitted working as a liaison between Taliban Intelligence Directorate and Iraqi President, Saddam Hussein”。不出所料, 这个信息不符合“萨达姆高度世俗化绝不可能跟基地合作”的主旋律, 再次被媒体团结一致给无视了。

根据911委员会报告, 基地二号人物(也是Egyptian Islamic Jihad领袖)扎瓦赫里“had ties of his own to the Iraqis”。西点反恐中心披露的一份基地组织内部文件(AFGP-2002-601693)显示：此人1998年访问了伊拉克。显然扎卡维与Masri在巴格达的长住也没什么值得惊诧的了。

Aymen went to Iraq and Iran, and now he told Abu Mujahid Al-Filistini that he regretted writing “Al Hasad Al Mur” (Bitter Envy) and thinks that he rushed in writing it.

这位Aymen显然就是Ayman al-Zawahiri, 因为文件中说他是“the leader of Jihadists in Peshwar Pakistan”, 并且写了Al Hasad Al Mur(The Bitter Harvest)。他与萨达姆的勾结由来已久, 一份缴获的前政权机密文件(ISGP-2003-00300189)写道“We agreed on a plan to move against the Egyptian regime by doing martyr operations on conditions that we should secure the finance, training and equipment.” 。  

利比亚问题上, 芦笛还在唱同一首歌, 他连叙利亚是伊朗最大盟友这一常识都毫无所知(奥巴马在最近的讲话里也提到"Syria has followed its Iranian ally, seeking assistance from Tehran in the tactics of suppression."), 当然对于整个中东北非的恐怖主义问题也只能胡扯了。叙利亚空军直接帮助老卡“平暴”, 这已被媒体广泛报导; 与此同时, 伊朗党卫军也已经接管了叙军指挥权---请看Executive Order 13572---财政部针对参与叙利亚镇压的个人和机构的制裁名单---伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(Qods Force)光荣上榜, 其指挥官Qasem Soleimani与另一位高干Mohsen Chizari都已被正式列为制裁对象(见财政部官网的声明)。巴沙尔·阿萨德如今为了保住政权, 已经不惜给哈·没内衣(Seyyed Ali Khamenei)作儿皇帝, 亏还有人对这些“反恐精英”舔个没完。 

在这些善解人意的“公知”眼中, 卡扎菲之流抓几个恐怖分子就是大功一件, 一口气放掉上百圣战分子(包括美国移交的原关塔拿摩在押人员)就是迫于无奈, 利比亚成了伊拉克外国圣战分子的第二大供应商, 也不是卡扎菲的错(那些人是从班加西来的嘛,不关老卡和叙利亚的事嘛,再说老卡还是采取了措施嘛----就是另外放出80多名穆斯林兄弟会成员,据说可以靠它们感化那些圣斗士), 他满世界洒钱搞什么“伊斯兰文化中心”、通过World Islamic Call Society成为穆斯林兄弟会的大金主, 乃至雇基地组织成员暗杀沙特领导人... ...这些都不要紧, 他永远是芦笛心中的世界和平卫士。

最后, 欣赏一下“反恐帝”卡扎菲06年在卡塔尔半岛台的重要讲话----他说现在欧洲有5000万回子, 土耳其被纳入欧盟后又加了五千万, 欧洲的绿化指日可待。当然, 上校念念不忘的还有统一非洲大陆, 为了这个目标他疯狂的烧钱和输出动乱; 老子革命儿好汉, 其公子Hannibal当年也扬言要“核平”瑞士(“If I had an atomic bomb I would wipe Switzerland off the map”)。如今自家的窝先被强拆, 真是情何以堪, 愿老人家在FARC女战士那里得到抚慰。