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回首2010,展望2011

(2010-12-31 15:01:18) 下一个

打下2011这几个数字,我突然想起了2001,那个在纽约发生的悲剧,马上就要十个年头了。那一天,我太太出差在波士顿,看到劫机情形,立即打电话给她:无论如何不要上飞机。那个悲剧发生后,公司开始大规模裁员。第二年,我买下了第一个投资房,在某市的九十六街。


回首这些年,我心存感激,赶上了一个房市的上升期。没有市场的顺风船,发展就会慢很多。买下九十六街的时候,跟我太太说,我争取每四,五年买一个这么大的东西,用二十年的时间,达到总套数二十个,就可以了。八年后的今天,那个目标已经被超越了。


去年开始,我是这么说的:“There will be modest and careful expansion of portfolio this year. But leaving enough reserve is always important. I hope I can add one multifamily property this year, with odd condos and SFHs on the side from either REO/Short sale or trustee auctions. The altimate goal is to increase size with healthy cash flow.”


今年,我在年初,到Central Florida,买了四个condo。现在都在出租。除此之外,没有在买别的东西。


在十多年没有回国后,我今年回了国,看了世博,带老婆孩子去了北京,上海,南京,山东,看了孔子墓,爬了泰山。孩子们第一次回了老家,所到各地,感受到浓浓的亲情。中国的发展,真是翻天覆地。


后来又回了一次国,一是参加同学聚会,而是参加展览会,寻找商机。我一直想找到一种方式,参加中国的发展,但是不回国。这次回国,我到处走,北京,西安,济南,青岛,郑州。整个中国都在搞建设,整个国家像一个大的建设工地,热火朝天,但也是脏乱不堪。同学聚会,和二十几年没有见面的同学聊天吃饭,参观法门寺,瞻仰黄帝陵,去了延安,感觉很有意义。


我花了几乎一年的时间,想出了一个产品。找了一个设计师,把我的想法变成产品。新年后,第一批产品将装船启运,到中国试销。我用心控制规模,以便不成功的话,不要损伤太大。


不管怎么说,房子 is my compfortable zone. T市年终传来好消息,能源价格攀升,该市经济开始活跃,房租开始攀升,整个小镇,全部满租,很多人要在旅馆里住着等空房。另一方面,房价还在买方市场。我决定在该镇增加投资。I have three units in town right now: two houses and a condo. I decided to increase the units to a maximum of ten. So I started to make offers, my first batch of offers ended up with three offers accepted, which will be closed in January.


For 2010:


1. Continue to make offers in T town, close the three accepted offers, and purchase another four units, to make the total number of units to ten.


2. Keep working on the product, ship it to China. Keep developing contacts in China.


3. May make small investments in China. Keep them small, in various forms.


4. Sell at least one of the two properties in Texas. Look for multi-family property once the capital is free. Look to phase out of Texas, or buy a much bigger property.


5.Try to increase the number of units in Central Florida.


6. B town experienced extreme hardship this year. Need to monitor it more closely in the new year.


All in all, I feel extremely lucky to still have capital to make more purchase in this kind of hard environment. I will continue to be careful, and only make purchases that make cash flow sense. I have to remember to keep a healthy level of reserve fund, because when things go bad, only reserve fund can save the situations. I probably should not go to new places for RE, rather, expansion should be in existing locations.


 

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