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实战解说:瞧瞧啥叫消息总是配合最小阻力路线

(2008-07-16 14:57:18) 下一个
实战解说:瞧瞧啥叫消息总是配合最小阻力路线

这是YHOO盘后的财经新闻。WFC ER开始代表金融板基本面的改观(WFC 的确在这拨危机中是最好的银行,老芭老早就买了它,当然现在也在水下),连IndyMac的倒闭都暗示成Possible Loan Fraud造成的。Bernanke无耻吧?大涨涨完了,他说Fannie/Freddie in No Danger of Failing。

明天一个字:涨;两个字:大涨;三个字:还大涨。

Wells Fargo Tops Estimates, Shares Jump 30 Pct- AP
Bernanke: Fannie, Freddie in No Danger of Failing- AP
Oil Tumbles Again; Prices Fall Over $10 in 2 Days- AP
Merrill to Sell Bloomberg Stake for $4.5B: Report- Reuters
FBI Investigates Possible Loan Fraud at IndyMac- AP

AP
Wells Fargo profit drops, but dividend rises
Wednesday July 16, 4:58 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Wells Fargo profit falls on loan losses, but the bank beats estimates and lifts dividend

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wells Fargo gave anxious investors a pleasant surprise Wednesday, reporting a profit drop that was milder than anticipated and lifting its quarterly dividend by 10 percent.

Wells Fargo's second-quarter profit fell 22 percent as more customers at the nation's fifth-largest bank failed to pay back their loans. But it raised its dividend to 34 cents from 31 cents -- at a time when many other financial institutions are slashing theirs to preserve capital.

The San Francisco-based company's shares soared $6.72, or 32.8 percent, to close at $27.23 Wednesday, after tumbling alongside other financial stocks over the last several days on worries about more U.S. mortgage losses and bank failures.

Wells Fargo has now logged three straight quarters of profit declines. But the bank has been weathering one of the nation's worst credit crises much better than most of its competitors, in part because it had less exposure to the subprime mortgages whose failure undermined the financial sector. That means it hasn't been forced to take the huge number of write-downs that other banks have needed.

"This is the first fairly positive data point that we've had for the banking industry -- we haven't seen any really strong results in the first half," said Byron MacLeod of Gradient Analytics. "This is where you're going to begin to see some stratification between those that are conservatively positioned, and those that aren't."

Wells Fargo & Co. earned $1.75 billion, or 53 cents per share, in the April to June period, down from $2.28 billion, or 67 cents per share, in the same timeframe last year. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had predicted, on average, a profit of 50 cents per share on revenue of $10.65 billion.

The bank took a provision for credit losses of $3 billion. That provision included total charge-offs of $1.5 billion, and an increase in reserves for future losses of $1.5 billion. Wells Fargo's total allowance for credit losses now stands at $7.52 billion, up from $6.01 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Revenue soared 16 percent to a record $11.5 billion, on strength in the bank's deposits, mortgage banking, credit card, and wealth management businesses.

While Wells Fargo's results appeared to cheer up its shareholders Wednesday, the bank is not exactly coasting.

Wells Fargo still has about $8.4 billion in home equity loans, which executives expect to keep posting losses until home prices stabilize. Meanwhile, charge-offs for credit cards and small business loans increased, though Howard Atkins, Wells Fargo's chief financial officer, attributed the losses to "growth and seasoning" of those portfolios.

Goldman Sachs analysts Richard Ramsden and Brian Foran wrote in a note to clients that Wells Fargo reported a lower percentage of defaulting loans than they expected. But, they said, mortgage-banking fees were twice what they anticipated and a dividend increase is questionable "in an environment when capital is extremely scarce."

Furthermore, Wells Fargo's unrealized securities losses jumped to $2.1 billion due to its exposure to mortgage-backed securities, Mike Mayo of Deutsche Bank pointed out in a note. Mayo added, though: "Wells has issues, but the magnitude is less than peers."

Executives say they are continuing with a safe approach.

"Higher-risk businesses are going to become a less important part of the company," Atkins said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Of the mortgages that the bank issued last quarter, "the vast bulk were very plain-vanilla, fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages, originated through our retail system," Atkins said. "And it was almost exclusively conforming business, as opposed to big jumbo loans."

Conforming loans follow the guidelines established by the government-sponsored lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; jumbo loans exceed the maximum loan amount.

The mortgage lending climate remains tough, but Wells Fargo managed to keep total retail mortgage originations at $31 billion, the same as last year, despite tightening its pricing and underwriting standards.

"We were able to lend more to current customers where we believed it was prudent and properly priced," said President and Chief Executive John Stumpf in a statement. He added that the company gained more business and customers through acquisitions.

"I'm hopeful that we can continue ... We haven't really changed at all our strategy around acquisitions. We're still very focused on doing smaller transactions," Atkins said.

AP
Bernanke tries to settle nerves over economy,banks
Wednesday July 16, 5:25 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Bernanke tries to calm jitters over the economy and mortgage giants Fannie, Freddie

WASHINGTON (AP) -- When Missouri Democrat Emanuel Cleaver asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday when the nation's financial woes would end, he was expressing the yearning of many on Main Street and Wall Street that the yearlong pain would soon be over.

"Is there a bottom? And, if so, how long before we hear a splash?" Cleaver asked during Bernanke's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on the problems plaguing the economy.

In back-to-back appearances before Congress, Bernanke sought to soothe nerves frazzled by rising prices for food and oil, slumping home values and faltering banks.

"We will work our way through these financial storms," Bernanke said.

Bernanke focused on one of those maelstroms Wednesday, when he said troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in "no danger of failing."

Trying to stem eroding investor confidence in the two companies, the Treasury Department and the Fed on Sunday offered to throw them a financial lifeline if they needed it to stay afloat. The two companies hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages -- almost half of the nation's total -- and are major sources of financing for the mortgage market.

The Bush administration is asking Congress to temporarily increase lines of credit to Fannie and Freddie and to let the government buy their stock. The Fed has offered to let the companies draw emergency loans. Those pledges of aid have raised concerns on Capitol Hill and elsewhere about the government's role in intervening to ease such financial troubles and the risk posed to taxpayers.

The Fannie and Freddie troubles came on the heels of the failure of IndyMac Bank, which was taken over last Friday by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Earlier this year, a run on investment bank Bear Stearns pushed the company to the edge of bankruptcy and into a takeover by JPMorgan Chase, backed financially by the Fed.

Seeking to strike a note of confidence, Bernanke said Fannie and Freddie are "adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing."

However, "the weakness in market confidence is having real effects as their stock prices fall, and it's difficult for them to raise capital. If their debt spreads widen, it'll increase the borrowing costs," he said.

The companies' shares have plunged as losses from their mortgage holdings threatened their financial survival. They clawed back some ground on Wednesday, however, when Wall Street got a lift from a dip in oil prices. Fannie shares gained 30.8 percent to close at $9.25. Freddie shares rose 29.9 percent to $6.83.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Congress on Tuesday that he hoped the proposed lifeline won't need to be used. He said the pledge was aimed at restoring confidence in the companies.

Bernanke said the "best solution" is to keep Fannie and Freddie "in their current form" as opposed to having the government take them over. It is also vital for Congress to boost regulatory oversight on the two companies. Such powers are contained in a sweeping housing-rescue package. Congressional leaders plan to add to the bill the provisions Paulson is seeking to aid Fannie and Freddie.

Spencer Bachus of Alabama, the panel's most senior Republican, said of the housing boom-to-bust situation: "Fortunes were made on the way up and pain will be felt on the way down."

With the bust, banks and other financial companies have racked up huge losses due to soured mortgage investments. Foreclosures have risen to record highs.

The Fed chief was upfront about the economy's problems, including a housing slump, financial turmoil, credit troubles and high energy and food prices. And, employers have cut jobs for sixth straight months.

"Families are facing hardships ... this is clearly a rough time," Bernanke said. "It is clear (economic) growth has been slow and the labor market is weak. So conditions are tough on average families."

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the Financial Services panel, said: "I think conditions clearly call for a second stimulus." He's among the Democrats in Congress exploring more economic stimulus efforts to follow up on the $168 billion package, including tax rebates, enacted earlier this year.

Bernanke said it was a too soon to go that route, but he didn't rule out such a course of action.

"On the fiscal stimulus, I believe the one that was done is having some effects, but it is somewhat early to make that judgment, and so, you know, I certainly think that we should consider all options. At the moment, I think it's a bit premature," Bernanke said.

He repeated his call for Congress to take action to shore up the housing market.

When asked about what the government can do to lift the sagging dollar, which has contributed to the rise in both oil prices and inflation, Bernanke replied that getting the economy back to good health would help the currency.

"Market intervention is a policy that's been undertaken a few times. I think it's something that should be done only rarely. But there may be conditions where markets are disorderly, where some temporary action might be justified," Bernanke said. "But I think the dollar in the long term depends really on the fundamentals, and it's up to us to get fundamentals right."

AP
Oil tumbles again; prices fall over $10 in 2 days
Wednesday July 16, 4:12 pm ET
By Adam Schreck, AP Business Writer

Oil ends sharply lower for second straight day, dragging prices down more than $10 this week

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices settled sharply lower for the second time in a row Wednesday, leaving crude more than $10 cheaper in just two days of frenzied trading and prompting speculation that the hard-charging market may be running out of steam.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell $4.14 to settle at $134.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier sinking as low as $132. The drop follows a $6.44 sell-off Tuesday, crude's biggest since the Gulf War.

The two-day slide of $10.58 a barrel marks a dramatic turnaround in crude prices, which as recently as Friday traded at record highs above $147 a barrel. But even with this week's sell-off, prices remain about 80 percent above where they were a year ago and up about 40 percent from the start of the year.

Analysts are unsure whether the drop represents a long-term shift in sentiment or simply a brief correction to crude's monthslong bull run. But the dizzying decline is prompting market veterans to ask how much support remains for such high prices.

"It's a sign that maybe the bull market is losing strength," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.

Perhaps just as significant as the declines was the sudden increase in volatility. Prices whipsawed by more than $10 Tuesday and $7 Wednesday ahead of the expiration of options contracts this week.

"I think anyone you talk to would have to be surprised by the magnitude of these huge price swings. This is extreme price volatility that no one can predict," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. Such large up-and-down swings, he added, can indicate the market is nearing its top.

Sharply increased crude and gasoline supplies were the immediate cause of Wednesday's decline.

The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude oil supplies rose by 3 million barrels, or 1 percent, last week. That is the opposite of the 3 million barrel draw analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts expected. Gasoline supplies also leapt unexpectedly.

"The numbers were decidedly bearish on just about all fronts," Ritterbusch said.

Industry observers cautioned that prices could still bounce back, just as they have following large drops in recent weeks.

"I do expect this bubble to burst. Is this is it? It might be ... but I'm not ready to say so yet," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.

A number of market participants speculated that at least some of the week's sell-off was the result of cash-strapped banks selling energy contracts to raise money for other needs.

And widely used computers programed to sell once prices fall to certain thresholds can accelerate declines, much as an avalanche gains steam the further it slides.

"It absolutely adds a cascading effect," Schork said.

Yet concerns are growing that high energy prices are leading to real shifts in consumer behavior that could cause demand to shrivel considerably.

The Labor Department said consumer prices shot up 1.1 percent last month, the second fastest pace in 26 years. Rising energy prices accounted for two-thirds of that increase, which was far worse than expected.

Testifying before Congress for the second day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said central bank policymakers are facing "significant challenges" in righting the troubled U.S. economy, which is being buffeted by weak growth and inflation driven largely by rapidly rising food and energy prices.

"This is clearly a rough time," Bernanke said. "It is clear (economic) growth has been slow and the labor market is weak. So conditions are tough on average families."

American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, two of the three biggest U.S. carriers, each reported a loss of more than $1 billion in the second quarter, largely because of higher fuel costs.

"With each passing day, we are reading about more car companies cutting back on production, airlines slashing flights, and consumers driving less," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global. "Of course, these are not new factors, and energy markets have ignored them for several months now as they have relentlessly pushed higher, but we suspect that as the pace of demand destruction accelerates it will be harder to ignore."

The dollar strengthened against the euro, giving traders less reason to go bargain shopping in the suddenly discounted energy market. A weaker dollar has enticed investors to buy oil and other commodities as hedges against inflation and a weakening dollar, but that incentive diminishes when the dollar gains ground.

It will be some time before any declines -- assuming they hold -- show up at the gas pump, where prices continued to advance.

U.S. retail gasoline prices added half a cent to $4.114 per gallon, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. Diesel prices also marched higher, up nearly a penny to $4.839 a gallon.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures shed 7.8 cents to settle at $3.841 a gallon while gasoline futures lost 10.54 cents to settle at $3.2794 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 7.9 cents to settle at $11.398 per 1,000 cubic feet.

August Brent crude fell $2.56 to settle at $136.19 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Reuters
Merrill to sell Bloomberg stake for $4.5 bln: report
Wednesday July 16, 5:12 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE:MER - News) has agreed to sell its 20 percent stake in Bloomberg LP back to the news and financial data company for about $4.5 billion, CNBC reported on Wednesday.

In an attempt to preserve its credit rating, the Wall Street investment bank and brokerage has decided it will retain its 49.8 percent stake in money manager BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK - News) rather than sell a piece of it, CNBC said.

Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim and BlackRock spokesman Brian Beades declined to comment. Bloomberg did not immediately return a phone call and e-mail seeking comment.

Selling the Bloomberg or BlackRock stakes could help Merrill Chief Executive John Thain raise capital to make up for write-downs related in part to subprime mortgages.

Merrill is due to report results on Thursday, and analysts, on average, expect a second-quarter loss of $1.94 per share, according to Reuters Estimates, which would be its fourth straight quarterly loss.

Merrill may take write-downs totaling as much as $6 billion, analysts have said, on top of more than $30 billion in write-downs since the third quarter of 2007.

Bloomberg was founded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who is now New York's mayor and still owns about 70 percent of the company.

Thain told investors last month that Merrill's 20 percent stake in Bloomberg was worth roughly $5 billion to $6 billion.

Merrill took its stake in BlackRock when it sold the company its own investment management business in 2006.

It would plan to retain a strategic relationship with BlackRock even if it sold part of the stake, a person close to Merrill said earlier this month.

BlackRock is run by Laurence Fink, once considered a top candidate to run Merrill after the ouster last October of Stanley O'Neal. Thain took the job after previously running NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX - News; Paris:NYX.PA - News).

Merrill shares closed Wednesday at $28.00, up $3.31, or 13.4 percent, as financial stocks rallied broadly. The stock has fallen 47.8 percent this year.

(Reporting by Dan Wilchins; additional reporting by Murali Anantharaman, Robert MacMillan and Jonathan Stempel; editing by Mark Porter/Jeffrey Benkoe)

AP
FBI probes possible home-loan fraud at IndyMac
Wednesday July 16, 5:40 pm ET
By Lara Jakes Jordan, Associated Press Writer

FBI investigating possible home-loan fraud at defunct IndyMac Bancorp

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The FBI is investigating failed bank IndyMac Bancorp Inc. for possible fraud, an official said Wednesday of the government's latest target following the collapse of the nation's subprime mortgage market.

It was not immediately clear how long the FBI's probe of the bank has been ongoing -- or whether it was opened before last Friday's takeover of IndyMac by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The investigation appears to be is focused on the company and not individuals who ran it, a law enforcement official told The Associated Press. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the investigation.

IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.

The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail in the last 20 years, regulators said.

Across the country, reports of mortgage fraud have soared over the past year as the subprime mortgage market collapsed, and defaults and foreclosures soared.

IndyMac's operations were transferred to the FDIC because bank regulators did not think the lender could meet its depositors' demands. The FDIC is now running the bank under the name IndyMac Federal Bank, FSB.

FDIC spokesman David Barr declined comment Wednesday.

It's unclear what penalties IndyMac could face now that it has been taken over by the FDIC. Generally, companies guilty of illegal activity can face civil charges and be forced to pay sanctions. In some cases, investigations that uncover new information can lead to focusing on new targets -- like individuals. But it's unknown whether the FBI's case against IndyMac will do so, or how it could pursue charges against a now-defunct corporation.

Shortly after the FDIC took over operations, Barr said most depositors were given immediate access to up to $100,000 in their accounts and 50 percent of any money beyond that threshold. Depositors with joint accounts or retirement accounts could immediately withdraw greater sums.

Depositors were given receivership certificates for any money they couldn't immediately withdraw and may be able to receive some of that money after the bank's assets are sold off.

Early this week, hundreds of worried IndyMac customers lined up out of the bank's headquarters branch in Pasadena, Calif., demanding to withdraw as much money as they could or get answers about the fate of their funds.

Over the last year, and faced with a cratering housing market, the FBI has opened a wide-ranging probe of companies across the financial services industry, from mortgage lenders to investment banks that bundle home loans into securities sold to investors.

Countrywide Financial Corp., formerly the nation's largest mortgage lender and now owned by Bank of America Corp., is also under scrutiny.

Additionally, two former Bear Stearns managers were indicted last month on conspiracy and securities and wire fraud charges alleging they lied to investors in a hedge fund that tanked last year as the subprime market collapsed. Those charges marked the first criminal charges to arise on Wall Street from the subprime mortgage debacle.

In all, the FBI is now investigating 21 companies tied to the subprime mortgage crisis, up from 19 last month. Authorities are looking into at least 1,400 mortgage fraud cases nationwide, and more than 400 real estate industry players have been indicted since March.

FBI Director Robert Mueller has said the investigations focus on accounting fraud, insider trading, and failure to disclose the value of mortgage-related securities and other investments. Losses to homeowners and other borrowers are estimated at over $1 billion.

FBI: http://www.fbi.gov/

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp: http://www.fdic.gov/

IndyMac: http://www.indymac.com/

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