FNM/FRE会破产么？

FNM/FRE会破产么？

美元作为法币，发行的方式有三种，其中两种是显示的，一种是隐示的。
显示的两种：

1，美联储应美国政府的要求拿美国政府未拍卖出去的国债作抵押，发行债务美元。
2，具有特许经营权的机构有限度地发行按揭为抵押的债务美元。全美只有两家有特许经营权，那就是FNM和FRE。

隐示的一种：

3，各银行和信用卡机构发行信用或贷款为基础的债务美元。

泡沫成分1，2，3递减。

就这么两家宝贝跟美联储最紧密地穿着一条裤子，能让它玩完了？这不像玩麻将，一把玩完了，接着洗牌从新玩就行了。到时国会审批等等一堆程序要走。搞的普通美国人都知道了，就不妙了。

所以，美联储会力挺的。连区区一个长期资本公司都让格老费尽了心血，这两颗常青摇钱树伯南克怎不会尽心尽力呢？问题在于是让美联储买单还是让美国政府买单。从对美元的影响上来讲，美国政府买单的话会比美联储好，因为这样对通胀的压力小些。

所以这些日子Paulson和伯南克连连演双簧。

AP
Freddie, Fannie shares sink on bailout concerns
Friday July 11, 3:14 pm ET
By Alan Zibel, Associated Press Writer

Freddie, Fannie shares drop sharply amid rising fears of government intervention

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Shares of Freddie Mac recovered from a gut-wrenching plunge Friday on speculation that the mortgage company could soon see its finances stabilized with access to emergency Federal Reserve lending.

Shares of Freddie Mac's larger government-sponsored sibling Fannie Mae remained down more than 20 percent.

Shares of both companies, which have been trading at levels last seen in the early 1990s, recovered somewhat after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, President Bush and lawmakers scrambled to reassure the market about the companies' health.

In a Capitol Hill news conference, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman, raised the prospect that the companies could be given access to emergency Federal Reserve lending.

Dodd, who spoke Friday to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Paulson, said the two are "looking at various options" for propping up the firms if they ultimately need help. Those include giving them access to the Fed's emergency lending "discount window," Dodd said. Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve took the unprecedented step of offering direct loans to investment banks.

Freddie Mac's shares rose 5 cents to $8.05, after earlier plummeting falling to $3.89. Fannie Mae's shares fell $2.89, or 21.9 percent, to $10.31 in late-afternoon trading, after sinking as low as $6.68 earlier in the day.

Paulson sought for the second-straight day to calm investors panicked about out the financial state of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying the agency aims to keep the mortgage finance companies "in their current form" without a government takeover.

The financial health of the companies is of critical concern to Washington policymakers because of the crucial role Fannie and Freddie play in the housing market.

The pair hold or guarantee more than $5 trillion worth of mortgages. That's roughly half of the $9.5 trillion debt of the United States. The fear is that a failure of one or both would wreak havoc on the nation's financial system and the broader economy.

Paulson's comments came amid reports that the government was considering a plan to take over one or both of the companies and place them in a conservatorship.

The Treasury chief said his department is "maintaining a dialogue with regulators and with the companies." The companies' main regulator will continue to work with the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "as they take the steps necessary to allow them to continue to perform their important mission," Paulson said.

"I think everybody's just holding their breath in expectation that something substantive from the government will happen today or over the weekend," said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner of consulting firm Federal Financial Analytics in Washington.

The companies' troubles are more a result of market perceptions than a changed financial picture at the two companies, Petrou said.

"External reality doesn't warrant such an action, but external reality seems no longer to matter," she said.

Under a 1992 law, if either company fell into financial trouble, the government could take over their operations by placing it in a conservatorship. That process could be used to keep operations going at Fannie and Freddie, but shareholders would likely see their investments erased, and the companies' ability to support the mortgage market could be reduced.

"Typically when this happens the business is a shell of its former self," said Louisiana State University banking professor Joseph Mason. "Shareholders aren't going to like it, managers and directors aren't going to like it, but it's not about whether they like it."

Wachovia Corp. economist Jay Bryson said the two mortgage giants could face a replay of the near-collapse in March of investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. A lack of market confidence could make it difficult for Fannie and Freddie to raise funding through debt sales, he said.

"It becomes a liquidity issue, rather than a solvency issue," Bryson said.

Representatives from Fannie and Freddie had no immediate comment.

Fannie and Freddie play a crucial role in providing funding for home loans by buying up mortgages and packaging them as investments. If they are unable to operate, the implications could be dire.

"Without them, our economy would collapse," Piper Jaffray analyst Robert P. Napoli said in a note to clients. Napoli lowered his target on Freddie to $9 per share from $28, and on Fannie to $15 per share from $30.

On Thursday, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight -- the companies' chief regulator -- said both remain "adequately capitalized," after Paulson and Bernanke sought to calm investors jitters in testimony on Capitol Hill.

Reassurances by government officials do not appear to be working.

"We doubt anyone will listen as fear is so high," Napoli said.

Congress created Fannie in 1938 and Freddie in 1970 to keep money flowing into the home-loan market by buying up mortgages and bundling them into securities for sale to investors worldwide -- thereby making home ownership affordable for low- and middle-income Americans.

But under a 1992 law they are required to hold only a fraction of what is mandated for commercial banks as a financial cushion against risk.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. analyst Andrew Parmentier said in a note to clients that the question of capital-raising plans at either company remains a "moving target ... (but) it is clear to us that government action would be undertaken to ensure that the institutions would not fail."

Associated Press Writers Jeannine Aversa, Ernest Scheyder, Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Christopher S. Rugaber contributed to this report.