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Expect MSFT-YHOO Deal for $33/Share

(2008-07-11 12:20:28) 下一个

WSJ's Berman: Expect MSFT-YHOO Deal for $33/Share by Aug. 1

Posted Jul 11, 2008 02:33pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Internet, Newsmakers, Venture Capital, M and A, IPOs
The "Gordian knot" that is Yahoo-Microsoft-Icahn-Google will be unraveled with a deal for $33 per share prior to Yahoo's Aug. 1 shareholder meeting, predicts Dennis Berman, The Wall Street Journal's Global Deals Editor.

Berman's comments follow another week of drama in this nearly six-month long saga, featuring what Berman calls the "unholy alliance" between Steve Ballmer and Carl Icahn, as well as Jerry Yang's defiant response via Kara Swisher. They also contrast comments from his ultimate (corporate) boss Rupert Murdoch, who is quoted as saying there won't be a Microsoft-Yahoo deal because of "bad personal feelings" among the participants.

There is definitely a "middle-school lunchroom"  element to all this, Berman says, but the bottom line is, as always, the bottom line: Microsoft has rescinded its offer for Yahoo but the software giant still needs to buy Tech Ticker's parent, as much as Carl Icahn needs to see it sold.

Yahoo will certainly have a say in the matter but is running out of alternatives (Murdoch also said News Corp. is "very unlikely" to do a deal with Yahoo) and its board is under intense pressure from shareholders like Capital Re's Gordon Crawford to get a deal done.

Citing Anheuser-Busch's change of heart about the InBev offer as an example (and model for Microsoft), Berman says Yahoo's board would be hard-pressed to turn down an "attractive" takeover offer, if (another) one is put on the table. The board can't take the risk of Icahn winning the proxy fight and selling the company on the cheap, or Microsoft truly walking away, he says. 

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