LU(ALU)技术分析(ALA + LU = ALU)

LU(ALU)技术分析(ALA + LU = ALU)

之所以要做LU技术分析，是因为今天LU在交易价格窄幅的情况下，放巨量1B。而其流通盘只有4.48B。

LU流通盘4.48B，机构持有率48.60%，空头93.06M, market cap $11.43B。这些数字都不具有什么特别之处。

ALA流通盘1.31B，机构持有率10.70%，空头16.97M，market cap $18.23B。也没有什么特别之处。

需要注意的是LU和ALA过去四个月的技术走势基本一模一样，连续底部拉升四个月。现在都成欲突破状态。目前的调整都在20SMA之上。ALA平时的换手率相当小，因为此股是欧洲公司的ADR。兼并LU后ALU的成交会很活跃。今天ALA成交量是平常的6/7倍。但说明问题的是LU的巨量1B换手，应为机构的私下协议好的在公开市场上的筹码转换。1分钟图显示10-25M的巨量block成交很规则也很均匀。而且这么大的block成交根本就没有影响股价。对比LU一般日成交量只有20-50M，就可以显示出为什么这不一般。

巨量有意识地换手后，再加上两个个股的TA走势，结论只有一个：往上大涨！(2009年6月11日加注：结果证明随后一个月从13.50涨至15最高点)

接着会有消息接连不断地出来，比如layoff, restructure, department consolidation,patent consolidation,customer database shareing etc.这些都是公司合并后的优势，要么省了钱，要么加强了竞争力。而被laid off的雇员，就成了华尔街股价飙升的牺牲品...

百年老店MD麦道公司被BA波音合并后，连牌子都没得挂了...
现在轮到了LU，想当年LU多么风光，如今也随风而逝了，沦为垃圾股这么多年，也是没有办法的办法。资本市场的整合也很残酷。

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/france_alcatel_lucent.html?.v=11

Alcatel Completes Purchase of Lucent
Thursday November 30, 5:41 pm ET
By Laurence Frost, AP Business Writer Alcatel Completes Purchase of Lucent, Creating Telecom Equipment Powerhouse

PARIS (AP) -- Two of the world's biggest telecom gear makers have tied the knot, eight months after France's Alcatel SA announced plans to buy U.S. rival Lucent Technologies Inc. and create a global force that can cash in on hot "triple-play" services offering phone, TV and Internet together.

Thursday's completion of the $11.6 billion, all-stock acquisition, approved by shareholders of both companies on Sept. 7, came after the first meeting of the new combined board in Paris, headquarters to both Alcatel and the new Alcatel-Lucent, which begins operating Friday.

Whether the marriage will be happy is an open question.

"The Lucent-Alcatel merger is going to be difficult at best," said Edward Snyder, wireless technology analyst at Charter Equity Research. "You're blending two cultures and you're doing that on such a huge scale, there have to be layoffs and buyouts and that poisons the atmosphere."

Half of the $1.8 billion in annual pretax savings the partners are promising within three years will be made by cutting about 9,000 jobs, or 10 percent of the combined work force.

Snyder, who called the merger a "Hail Mary pass" by executives unable to produce growth by increasing sales, said the looming job cuts, likely to hit the staff at Murray Hill, N.J.-based Lucent hardest, will keep people from focusing on selling and designing products.

"Their competitors are going to start picking up the slack," Snyder said, with Nortel Networks Corp. a likely beneficiary.

Odon de Laporte, an analyst with Paris brokerage CA Cheuvreux, said "management seems extremely confident in its ability to achieve" the projected savings. He expects Lucent's pension fund, previously a worry for some Alcatel shareholders, to balance its books by the end of the year, after a $2.4 billion deficit at the close of 2005.

"We're rather reassured," he said.

With combined sales of $25 billion in 2005, excluding businesses sold off, Alcatel-Lucent overtakes LM Ericsson AB's $21.6 billion in revenue to control about 18 percent of the fiercely competitive market for telecom gear.

"This combination represents a strategic fit of vision, geography, solutions and people," said Lucent Chief Executive Patricia Russo, formally appointed Alcatel-Lucent CEO during Thursday's board meeting. Outgoing Alcatel boss Serge Tchuruk also stays on as non-executive chairman.

Although the tie-up was billed as a "merger of equals," former Alcatel shareholders control about 60 percent of the combined company, whose shares will trade on Euronext Paris and the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ALU.

The new 14-member board has six directors from each side and two independent European directors named Thursday: Jean-Cyril Spinetta, chairman and CEO of Air France-KLM, and businesswoman Sylvia Jay, also a director with a French construction materials maker Compagnie de Saint-Gobain and cosmetics maker L'Oreal's British arm.

Analysts say the Alcatel-Lucent product line is well suited to triple-play networks combining Internet, phone and TV, as well as services that blend fixed-line and mobile phone offerings -- another growth area. Orange, France Telecom SA's Internet and mobile arm, plans to roll out Alcatel-Lucent hardware next year allowing customers to use their cell phones at fixed-line prices when at home.

Alcatel has invested heavily in advanced fixed-line networks, said analyst Eric Carballeda of Paris brokerage Aurel Leven, and Lucent has developed switches that allow mobile phone users to move seamlessly between a cellular network and a wireless Internet connection in mid-call.

Their technological fit "will maximize their prospects of winning big contracts in fixed-mobile convergence," said Carballeda.

Building on earlier consolidation in the sector, the combination will also help telecom equipment makers resist growing pressure on prices after a wave of mergers and acquisitions among their customers, the phone network operators. Alcatel agreed to buy Nortel's third-generation UMTS mobile networks earlier this year. Nokia Corp. and Siemens AG announced a joint venture in June, eight months after Ericsson bought Marconi.

Consolidation is "very important for the equipment makers, as they were losing pricing power very quickly," Carballeda said.

Unlike either Alcatel or Lucent alone, the combined company will have a strong, evenly distributed presence around the globe. Europe, North America and Asia each supply close to one-third of revenue, spreading any risk from local economic shocks.

Alcatel-Lucent may look strong on paper, but Russo will have to work hard to integrate Lucent, the proud home of research dynamo Bell Labs, with its French rival and realize the benefits. The task could throw up as many cultural challenges as business problems, as shown by other recent trans-Atlantic mergers, including the 1998 acquisition of Chrysler by Germany's Daimler-Benz.

AP Business Writer Linda A. Johnson in Trenton, N.J., contributed to this report.