财经观察 1334 --- 经济减速正常，早定明年工作

On Tuesday, NDRC held a forum to review Yangtze-Delta 7 cities's 2008 GDP growth prospects in NanJing. Market expected that the meeting would be one of few such forums held in various regions in next few month, and the outputs of these forum would collect on-the-ground information for upcoming Economic Conference held in Dec. During the meeting, almost all cities have cut down their 2008 GDP growth by 0.5-2.6%.

In addition, Shi Gang, director of NDRC's Intergrated Departement, offers 4 points of requirements for the next step development, which I think it is very important and indicates what the government's attitude toward current economics and global financial crisis. My conclusion is that as said in Dr Ha's today report, I don't expect any imminent rescue plan would be rolled out any time soon, including those property related rules, plus the government may focus more on those long-term untouched issues.                                      

His points include:

To have a correct view on current economic situation - China economy's current slowdown is normal, given very tough global economic difficulty and financial system crisis.

(My personal interpretation: I think it shows that the government is not as frustrated or panic as what market originally imagined, instead, the government actually looks very calm and confident. This can help explain why the government is no hurry to roll out what market called "rescue plan", such as fiscal stimulas and ease of property market tighening rules, rather than to set the country-wide reform as its top priority in its annual part conference, which is regarded as a long-shot strategy to the economy. Even with the recent two IR cuts, it should be regarded only as show of China's good attiude to cooperate with US and other central banks in their crisis.)

To foster a sense of crisis and try to grasp any development opportunity in the currenty crisis.

(This point indicates that the government now focuses more on the development rather than emergency rescue, and try to use the current gold time window (in which most of developed countries are busy in save their banks out of big troubles) to solve those untouched old issues, such as country-wide reform and energy price mechanism, etc. In addition, it also help understand why the CSRC rolled out long-waited stock lending/margin business and the PBoC resumed mid-term CP issuance, which all are long-term systematic building plans.)

To enhance sensitivity and economic monitoring, and to take action as early as possible.

(This points say that even the government is not so concerned about current economic slowdown but it is still very cautious for any further impact from the global recession. And it is ready to take any further actions to avoid big economic issues.)                                                              

To nail down next year's work priority as early as possible.

The belows are the 2 major reports about this topic as your reference:    

“经济减速正常，早定明年工作”

在国家发改委召开的经济形势座谈会上，发改委综合司司长石刚对下一步工作提出了四点要求。

石刚首先要求正确看待当前经济形势。经济全球化的今天，我国经济与世界经济之间的联系越来越紧密，要在世界局势普遍困难的情况下保持“一枝独秀”难度较大，因而，我国经济适度回落是正常的，各地能保持当前的发展态势也是不易的，取得的成绩也表明我们与时俱进地调整宏观调控政策的正确性。

二要树立机遇意识。任何事物都存在两面性，挑战中孕育着机遇，谁能把握先机，抓住机遇，谁就能赢得主动，赢得好的发展空间，为此，各地要以宏观环境变化为契机，加快转变发展方式，推动经济结构优化升级。

三要增强敏感性。后几个月要加强经济预测监测，尽早发现苗头性、倾向性问题，及时采取调控措施，保持经济平稳较快发展。

四要及早明确明年工作重心。各地要对今后的发展坚定信心，在坚持“一保一控”主基调的同时，加速结构调整和产业升级，加快改革开放步伐，处理好民生和社会稳定的关系。

瑞银昨天发表研究报告称，决定将中国今年GDP增幅预测值下调至9.6%，2009年下调至8.0%。瑞银原先预测2008年中国GDP增幅为10%，2009年为8.8%。

不过该报告指出，即使在全球经济陷入衰退的情况下，中国的实际GDP增幅将维持在8%以上，从而实现经济软着陆。报告进一步预料，中国通胀形势将继续缓和，到今年底，CPI升幅将下降至4%，2009年更进一步降至2.6%。预料未来数月中国的出口与房地产投资增长将明显放缓，不过相关政府新政策将刺激国内需求，部分抵消外部需求大降带来的负面冲击。

上海今年GDP增速调低至10%

早报记者 周玲 吴正懿 

国家发改委网站昨天发布消息称，发改委综合司于9月20日在南京召开了部分省市发展改革委综合处长经济形势座谈会，江苏、安徽、山东、上海、重庆、南京、杭州等七个省市参加了会议。由于国际国内形势发生了深刻变化，加上国内股市、房市、车市“三碰头”不景气，在会上，各省市对全年经济走势存在不同程度的担忧，纷纷调低经济增长预期。上海、安徽等省市调低了全年GDP增幅，上海全年GDP增速调为10%，安徽调为13.7%，分别比今年上半年增幅下调了0.3和0.5个百分点。

知情人士透露，这次会议上各地对自身经济的判断，将为年底的中央经济工作会议定调做准备。发改委的消息也显示：此次会议是“为了正确判断当前形势，科学预测全年走势，探讨明年工作思路。”

沿海增长放缓

这篇题为《国家发展改革委奔赴重庆等7个省市专题调研经济运行问题》的文件转发自重庆市发展改革委。

上海上半年GDP增长10.3%，回落2.7个点，落后于全国平均增幅0.1个百分点，为近年来最低水平。其中服务业增长9.3%，回落4.8个点。会上认为，作为东部沿海经济的代表，上海因国际化程度较高，受外部环境影响相对较大，加上正处于结构调整、经济转型的阵痛期，经济波幅相对较大。

于此同时今年上半年多数省份经济增幅均出现不同程度回落，与会的其他沿海四个省市均呈现这一态势。1—6月，山东、江苏、杭州和南京的GDP分别增长13.8%、13.6%、12.4%和13%，与去年同期分别回落0.9、1.4、2、和2.6个百分点。

山东省去年底提出的今年GDP目标增长10%，江苏省今年初政府工作报告中提及全年GDP目标是11%。原本政府有些保守的预测放在目前，能实现目标也属不易。

浙江省发改委认为，企业应对市场变化的能力和竞争力有所增强，但中小企业生产经营仍相当困难，部分企业资金链断裂的风险仍然比较大，企业主要依靠低成本、低价格竞争的格局没有根本改变，产业层次低、布局散、竞争力弱的格局也没有根本改变，预计第三季度经济将比上半年进一步回落，经济下行趋势仍将延续。

另外，近年经济高速增长、受国际影响相对较小的安徽，目前也对全年经济走势担忧，把上半年GDP14.2%的增幅下调0.5个百分点。公开资料显示，安徽省信息中心今年初对安徽全年GDP发展目标预测是13%以上。

预期保守成为现实

复旦大学经济学教授张军昨天接受记者采访时表示，调低目标意味着上海对全年经济走势已经形成共识，从原来的恐惧下滑，变成现在的理性认识下滑。“下滑是正常的，没有必要回避，上海作为沿海经济，受到国际经济影响较大，同时上海自身面临经济结构转型，要认清这种现象。”

在本次会议上上海提出的全年GDP目标10%，这与上海市市长韩正在今年初政府工作报告中提到的2008年上海经济增幅预期相同。

 “从这种意义上讲，上海并没有调低全年经济预期，只是政府原有的预期相对保守，而现在可能会变成现实。”不过张军认为上海全年要实现10%增幅也是相当不容易。他表示，拉动上海经济高速增长的诸多条件都已不再存在，目前看来房地产和股市已经无法对GDP作出贡献；工业投资增速定下的目标是5%，这一目标较往年10%-25%增幅出现明显回落。“目前找不到有力支撑上海GDP保持两位数增长因素了。”

张军表示，目前国内国外经济大环境不好，虽然对东部影响大一些，但是对中部同样也有影响，各省市都要理性客观认识形势。不过张军对中部地区经济增幅抱有乐观态度，“中部经过7-8年的打基础阶段，现在应该是见效的时候了。”