The Desperation Lullaby: Casting Putin as Desperate Is the Mistake That Arms Him
By: Giorgio Provinciali
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Kyiv The fable of Russian attacks as bursts of frustration is pernicious as well as wrong: it comforts those who write it and disarms those who listen to it.
For four and a half years we have been hearing the same sermon. In 2022 the Kremlins premature coroners pronounced Putin sick, isolated and one step from a coup. Every massacre was revenge and every missile barrage was the senseless terror of a regime on its last legs.The man given up for dead is instead recruiting for his fifth consecutive winter campaign, while many mistakes repeat themselves identically, becoming ammunition for that regime. Calling a methodically run targeting campaign desperation is a verdict that acquits its author, comforts the criminal and lets the victim die.
Around 11:30 yesterday morning, the air-raid alert preceded by a few seconds the thunder of three ballistic missiles: theywereIskander-Ms launched from the north, aimed at the Kyiv region: one was intercepted, and two found their mark in the Bucha district, killing some ten people and wounding around a hundred, while 27 private homes and 44 vehicles were damaged. By early afternoon the picture had sharpened: the Russians had struck, in Kapitanivka, a private sports complexwhere the Defense Demo Day Defense Expo of Armada, the association of unmanned-systems manufacturers, was getting underway. Early official notes spoke of a training ground, but the Air Force, through Yurii Ihnat,deniedthat account, while the General Staff stressed that the civilian facility does not fall under its control, even as such events demand maximum security measures regardless of ownership. Although large gatherings have long been banned within the Armed Forces, that open-air event had beenannouncedthrough closed and shared chats, exactly like another one held in August 2023. Back then, in Chernihiv, a similar event was underway, devoted to showcasing drones equipped with cutting-edge technologies, and was announced the same way. Moscow hasclaimedthe strike as deliberate, against a drone exhibition hosted we now know inside a civilian facility, just as in Chernihiv.
Hitting a meeting in progress in the countrys best-defended region takes real-time surveillance, penetration of those chats and a kill chain compressed, in essence, into minutes. Such a capability should alarm anyone; instead, Western coverage once again wrote of an alleged frustration.
Also yesterday, shortly before dawn, three Russian KAB glide bombs rained down on Izium,hittingthe Nova Poshta depot and branch №6, another warehouse and an open area beside an optical-mechanical plant, a historic Soviet-era military glassworks. To be clear, the kind of installation the military maps of another age mark in red. That attack, too, was written up as the frustration of the Russian dictator, unable to get results at the front.
As we close these lines, from Slovianskcomesthe tally of the third massive attack in less than twenty-four hours: three Russian bombs glided, there as well, onto the city center, one unexploded and removed by sappers, the other two leaving sixteen wounded a child among them with a five-story residential building and a two-story office building partially destroyed. Sixteen apartment blocks damaged in all, twenty-three tons of rubble already cleared. In the morning, in the same city, other KABs had already left five dead and nine wounded. Three waves in a single day on a single Donbas city, with the cadence ofa pressure that is programmed and sustained, and yet the same old tune of attacks of desperation played on loop across Western media. A pernicious fable, as well as a wrong one.
For months, in fact, the same direction has been at work against the flows as well. As we have already documented, on June 15 a ballistic strikedamageda sorting terminal in Kyivs Obolon district, turning ten thousand parcels to ash. On July 2, that same logistics center was razed to the ground. The next day, in Zaporizhzhia, a Russian drone attackkilledan employee of one of the chains branches, and on the 5th it was Chernihivs turn. On the 19th, the Kharkiv terminal wasstruckthree times, with dead and wounded. As we have described from the burning hubs of Vyshneve, many of those gutted warehouses we documented in person, explaining that they belong to that war of flows and volumes we have beendescribingfor years. Not to desperation.The interdiction of the countrys internal circulatory system, now extended to the informational layer (chats, calendars, and announcements), is not a source of frustration. So much so that pro-Russian bulletinsclassifythe postal terminals as dual-use targets, that is, civilian and military at once, and the logistics centers as drone-assembly sites, listed alongside missile plants.
The enemys language is the language of method. Deliberate and criminal. Not desperation.It belongs, if anything, to a planning that prices in civilians and remains a matter for the courts: massacres like those now daily in Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk and Kyiv prove it beyond appeal.
The matrix repeats itself, and so do the mistakes. After the massacre at the Shevchenko theater which we documented three years ago in Chernihiv, and which left seven dead, among them a six-year-old girl, and more than 140 wounded another tragic error was committed that same year, on November 3, 2023, in Zarichne: the 128th Brigades award ceremony for Artillery Daycost19 gunners their lives. On September 3, 2024, in Poltava, after three minutes of flight, two Russian ballistic vectors came down on the Institute of Communications, tearing open that six-story building over people running for shelter: the toll soonclimbedto 55 dead and 328 wounded, and the Armed Forces themselvesopenedan inquiry into the protection of personnel. Palm Sunday 2025, Sumy: the 117th Brigades ceremony at the Congress Center, two Iskander-Ms fired two minutes apart one of them carrying submunitions killed 35 people, two children among them. Governor Artiukhadmittedhe had been present while denying any role in organizing it, and was removed within forty-eight hours, as MP Bezuhlaspokeof an information leak. Going further back, we could also cite the massacre we documented from Vinnytsia in 2022. Defense showcases inside civilian venues, exactly as in Kapitanivka. We are talking about ageometry that survives three commanders-in-chief Zaluzhnyi, Syrskyi and now Drapatyi and a systemic flaw with an old name: the culture of the muster.
A culture that comes from far back. As we documented from Mykolaiv, on March 18, 2022, some two hundred soldiers were asleep in their quarters when the missilesshatteredthem; they cowardly hit our soldiers in their sleep, said Governor Kim. At least fifty bodies were recovered, though the estimates of a toll never made official speak of a hundred fallen. May 17, 2022, Desna: four Russian missiles on the sleeping quarters of the training center, and Zelensky left toconfirmfrom Davos the 87 dead pulled from the rubble. Back then one could invoke the inexperience of the first months; today we are heading into the fifth winter of full-scale war.
The Ukrainian state treats them as mistakes, producing case files, removals and internal inquiries after every episode. But those mistakes are exploited methodically by an adversary that reads, listens and archives. Not out of desperation.
The enemy plans, and plans big. Andrii Kovalenko of the Center for Countering Disinformation haswarnedthat Moscow is preparing a mobilization of half a million men for the fall: one part will likely be funneled to the front within two weeks to plug its setbacks in the East; another will be trained for at least a month and then directed toward the possible opening of a new axis on the northern flank. Gerasimov and Kiriyenko haveguaranteedit to Putin as a decisive move, while the 2026 contract recruitment limps along at 195,000 signatures against the 204,500 planned. On July 22, the Dumapassedthe law opening Defense Ministry contracts to people with unexpunged criminal records during formal mobilization periods: they are legislating the infrastructure of the draft, hardly improvising. The HUR, in fact,readsthe Kremlins silence as pre-election tactics. Meanwhile on the northern flank, since April, Zelensky himself has beenflaggingroads under construction toward our border and new artillery positions on Belarusian territory. In July the border serviceconfirmedgrowing infrastructure along the Kyiv and Chernihiv axes (no troop concentrations for now), with Minsk in words alone supposedly resisting Moscows pressure. From that northern border we havereportedin person that what one sees there is no sign of frustration but, if anything, of construction.
This is why we find it necessary to nail certain Western analyses to the responsibility of their own words.The fable of frustration works as a moral ablution, absolving the West: by that harebrained theory the aid would be sufficient, the enemy would be on its last legs, the massacres would be venting and the anti-ballistic supplies would not be measured out with an eyedropper. The price is paid by those who live beneath the trajectories of vectors against which Kyiv still lacks a decent shield. Ceremonies, demo days and OPSEC itself, that is, the discipline of operational silence, are treated by Moscow as one more munition. In Belarus, roads are being built toward Ukraine, and the cities of the Donbas are turning into a gray zone. And yet the editorials on Russian desperation pile up wherever the bombs are not falling (yet).
Besides being pernicious, this lullaby is wrong, and it seems to sing louder than the sirens.
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绝望摇篮曲：把普京描绘成绝望者是在武装他
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻译：旺财球球
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基辅将俄罗斯袭击描述为挫败的爆发既有害又错误：它安慰了写这些的人，也使听这些的人解除了防备。
四年半来，我们一直听到同样的说教。2022年，克里姆林宫的不成熟届断者就断言普京病了、被孤立了、距离政变只差一步。每一次大屠杀都是复仇，每一次导弹轰击都是摇摇欲坠政权的毫无意义的恐怖袭击。那个被宣告已死的人反而正在为连续第五个冬季战役征兵，而许多失误一再完全重复，成了那个政权的弹药。把一个有条不紊的定点打击行动称为绝望，是对作者的无罪判决，是对罪犯的安慰，也任由受害者逝去。
（图：一座为乌克兰文尼察遭俄方袭击后无辜罹难者修建的纪念碑版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
昨日上午约11:30，空袭警报后短短几秒即响起了三枚弹道导弹的怒吼：它们是从北方发射的伊斯坎德尔-M导弹，目标为基辅地区：一枚被拦截，两枚命中布查区，造成约十人死亡、约一百人受伤，27处民宅和44辆车被毁。到下午早些时候，情况更清楚：俄军在卡皮塔尼夫卡击中了一个私人体育综合体，阿尔马达（无人系统制造商协会）的国防演示日与国防博览会正在那里进行。早期官方通报称是训练场，但空军通过尤里伊格纳特否认了这一说法，总参谋部强调该民用设施不在其管控范围内，尽管此类活动无论归谁所有都需要最高安全措施。尽管军队内部早都已经禁止大型集会，该露天活动通过封闭和共享的聊天群被公布，就像2023年8月在切尔尼戈夫举行的另一次活动一样。那次在切尔尼戈夫，类似活动正在进行，展示配备尖端技术的无人机，亦以同样方式发布消息。莫斯科宣称该次打击是蓄意的，目标是一个在民用设施内举办的无人机展，我们现在知道了，正如在切尔尼戈夫一样。
在国家防御最周密的地区打击正在进行的会议，需要实时监视、渗透那些聊天群和一个在本质上被压缩到几分钟内的终结链。这样的能力应当让所有人警觉；然而，西方媒体却再次把它写成所谓的挫败。
（图：Alla在切尔尼戈夫俄袭后发生悲剧的现场报道版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
昨日黎明前不久，三枚俄制KAB滑翔炸弹倾泻在伊久姆，击中新邮（Nova Poshta）仓库与6号分支、另一处仓库以及一处临近光学机械厂的空地，那是一座具有历史的苏联时期军用玻璃厂。明确一点：那类设施在旧时代的军事地图上通常用红色标注。那次攻击也被写成了俄国独裁者在前线无法取得成果的挫败。
在我们结束这些文字时，从斯洛维扬斯克传来不到24小时内第三次大规模袭击的统计：三枚俄制滑翔炸弹同样落在市中心，一枚未爆经排雷人员移除，另外两枚导致16人受伤，其中有一名儿童；一栋五层住宅楼和一栋两层办公楼部分被毁。16栋公寓楼完全受损，已有23吨废墟被清理。同一城市，同一天早晨，已有其他KAB已造成5死9伤。单日在顿巴斯某一城市发生三波攻击，节奏如同有计划且持续施压，然而西方媒体仍循环播放绝望式袭击的老论调。既有害又错误的寓言。
（图：我在俄袭文尼察后惨案现场报道版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
事实上，数月来，同一方向也在对物流流通展开攻击。正如我们已报道，6月15日，一次弹道打击摧毁了基辅奥博隆区的一个分拣终端，使一万件包裹化为灰烬。7月2日，同一物流中心被夷为平地。次日，在扎波罗热，一俄方无人机袭击造成连锁店一名员工死亡；5日，切尔尼戈夫遭袭。19日，哈尔科夫的终端被三次击中，造成伤亡。正如我们从维什内韦那些熊熊燃烧的中心所描述的，许多被焚毁的仓库是我们亲自记录的，我们指出，这些仓库属于我们多年来一直在描述的那场关于流动与体量的战争。不是什么绝望。对国家内部循环系统的封阻，现已扩展到了信息层（聊天、日历和通告），这并非单纯的让人沮丧的原因。以至于亲俄公报把邮政终端划为双重用途目标，即既是民用又是军事目标，并将物流中心列为无人机组装地点，与导弹工厂并列。
敌人的语言是方法论的语言。蓄意且犯罪。不是绝望。如果有什么话，这属于一种将平民计入成本的计划，应交由法庭裁决：像现如今每天在苏梅、扎波罗热、哈尔科夫、赫尔松、顿涅茨克和基辅发生的屠杀，已经无可争辩地证明了这一点。
（图：Alla在乌克兰尼科拉耶夫俄袭后发生悲剧的现场报道版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
模式在重复，错误也在重复。继舍甫琴科剧院大屠杀之后（我们三年前在切尔尼戈夫记录了该事件，造成7人死亡，其中包括一名六岁女孩，140余人受伤），同年另一起悲剧性错误发生在2023年11月3日，扎里奇内：第128旅的炮兵节授奖仪式造成19名炮手遇难。2024年9月3日，波尔塔瓦：两枚俄制弹道导弹在飞行三分钟后击中通信学院，一座六层楼在躲避的人群上方被撕开：死亡人数很快上升到55人，受伤328人，武装部队本身也对人员保护展开调查。2025年棕枝主日，苏梅：第117旅在会展中心举行仪式，两枚伊斯坎德尔导弹相隔两分钟依次发射，其中一枚携带集束弹，造成35人死亡，其中包括两名儿童。州长阿尔丘赫承认当时在场，但否认其担任了组织角色，并在48小时内被免职，议员贝祖赫拉称为信息泄露。再往前，我们还可以引述我们在2022年从文尼察记录的大屠杀。民用场所内的防务展示，正如在卡皮塔尼夫卡那样。我们谈论的是一种在三任总司令，扎卢日尼、斯尔斯基和现在的德拉帕蒂，下持续存在的构架，以及一个有着老名字的系统性缺陷：集结文化。
（视频：我们在俄袭后苏梅悲剧地记录的影像版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
这种文化源远流长。正如我们在尼科拉耶夫记录的，2022年3月18日，大约两百名士兵在宿舍睡觉时导弹将其炸碎；他们懦弱地在我们士兵睡觉时袭击了他们，州长金如是说。尽管从未正式公布的评估提示约一百人遇难，但至少回收了50具遗体，。2022年5月17日，德斯纳：四枚俄制导弹袭击训练中心的宿舍，泽连斯基在达沃斯确认从废墟中检出87名遇难者。那时人们或可以归因于头几个月的经验不足；如今我们正迈入全面战争的第五个寒冬。
乌克兰政府将这些事件视为失误，每次事件后都会产生案卷、免职和内部调查。但这些失误被敌方系统性地利用，敌方在阅读、监听与存档。绝非出于绝望。
敌人筹划周密而规模宏大。来自反虚假信息中心的安德里科瓦连科警告称，莫斯科正准备在秋季动员五十万兵力：一部分可能在两周内被输送到前线以填补东线挫折；另一部分将至少训练一个月，然后被部署往北翼开辟的新轴线。格拉西莫夫和基里延科已向普京保证这是决定性行动，而2026年的合同征兵进展缓慢，签约人数为195,000，与计划的204,500相比不足。7月22日，杜马通过法律，允许在正式动员期间征召有未被消除刑事记录的人签订国防部合同：他们正在立法动员基础设施，远非临时应变。军事情报局事实上把克里姆林宫的沉默解读为选前策略。与此同时在北翼，自4月以来，泽连斯基本人已指出向我方边境修建的道路以及在白俄罗斯领土上的新炮位。7月，边防部门确认基辅和切尔尼戈夫轴线上基础设施在增长（目前无部队集结），明斯克，仅在言辞上据称抵抗莫斯科压力。我们已亲自从那条北部边境报道，所见并非绝望迹象，若有的话，是在建设。
这就是为什么我们觉得有必要把某些西方分析按其语言追责。挫败寓言作为一种道德洗涤，赦免西方：按那荒唐理论，援助应当足够，敌人将走到尽头，屠杀只是发泄，反导物资无需被滴水式分配。付出代价的是生活在那些导弹弹道下、基辅仍缺乏体面防护的人们。各类庆典、演示日以及作战保密本身，即操作沉默的纪律，被莫斯科视为又一枚弹药。在白俄罗斯，通向乌克兰的道路正在修建，顿巴斯城市正变成灰色地带。尽管如此，关于俄方绝望的社论仍在那些炸弹尚未落下的地方大量堆积。
这种摇篮曲除了有害之外还是错误的，而且似乎比警报声唱得更响。
（图：撰写本文前，我在基辅现场报道版权所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
在1612天的战争中，我们从前线录制了300多段视频，并撰写了3000多篇文章其中至少1600篇为英文，1400篇为意大利文。
我们尽最大努力从几乎没有媒体敢进入的地带进行真实的一手报道，这意味着我们长期生活在杀伤区。我们承担风险，但若没有你们宝贵的支持，我们的声音将无从传出。若没有远方的勇敢的人们转发分享我们的文章，它们将无人问津。我们的报道会被忽视，我们的努力将付诸流水。这里还有大量工作要做，周围的人们境况同样艰难。
我们正在更新筹款活动，感谢每一位加入我们、帮助修复俄罗斯破坏的人们。仅靠一家勇敢的报纸为我们每篇文章支付微薄稿酬以维持前线报道极为困难。因此，我们感激所有支持并信任我们使命的善良人们。
哪怕是小小的捐助也有助益。
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