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凯利·麦克帕兰：贾斯汀·特鲁多幼稚的电动汽车计划将钥匙拱手让给了中国
北京利用燃煤发电生产的电动汽车充斥全球，无助于应对气候变化
凯利·麦克帕兰 2023年12月28日
The American ambassador to Canada is pushing back on Ottawa's travel advice, saying his country doesn't search phones at the border.
2023年4月19日，人们在上海国际汽车工业展览会上参观中国电动汽车巨头小鹏汽车的展位。凯利·麦克帕兰写道，加拿大自由党政府强制要求到2035年，加拿大所有销售的汽车都必须是电动汽车，但支持这一举措的基础设施却十分匮乏。
首先，我要明确一点，我并不反对电动汽车。且不说拯救地球，谁愿意在寒冬腊月把车停在肮脏的加油站前，冒着体温过低的风险，只为支付石油公司为再加满一箱“脏”燃料索要的赎金呢？
电力固然好，但说真的。加拿大是最新一个为未来设定明确日期的国家。在我们看来，是2035年，届时耗油量大的汽车将彻底消失。你无需承受任何考验！这将是一个新的曙光，一个电动汽车 (EV) 的世界。无论你准备好了没有，我们都来了。
或者呢？加拿大控制着零家大型汽车制造商。我们生产和购买来自其他国家公司的汽车。如果他们不能解决电动汽车市场仍然面临的诸多问题，未来的加拿大政府将无能为力。
在汽车巨头中，通用汽车一直是最坚定的电动汽车信徒之一。对于首席执行官玛丽·博拉来说，“EV” 就是“福音”的首字母。不要让怀疑阻碍你，只需坚定信念。
然而，这座汽车城如今却陷入困境。通用汽车已放弃到2024年中期销售40万辆电动汽车的承诺。它还放弃了与本田汽车联合开发更经济实惠电动汽车的价值50亿美元的计划。它推迟了密歇根工厂电动卡车的投产，并收购了其2000家别克经销店的一半，因为它们拒绝为实现全电动汽车的未来做出必要的投资。通用汽车暂停了其自动驾驶汽车Cruise部门的运营，并拨出100亿美元用于股票回购，以安抚紧张的投资者。
与此同时，电动汽车销量正在增长，但速度并未达到预期，导致大量未售出的汽车积压。福特要么削减要么推迟了120亿美元的电动汽车投资，并缩减了计划在密歇根州建设的电池厂的规模。《今日美国》报道称，由于价格高企、需求放缓、续航里程焦虑、充电站匮乏，以及消费者越来越意识到电动汽车维修成本可能远高于化石燃料汽车，电动汽车库存较去年同期增长了506%。
美国的报告显示，电动汽车需求主要集中在少数地区，通常是城市地区的富裕人群。据CarGurus Inc.称，尽管由于供应过剩导致价格下降，但新电动汽车的平均成本仍比内燃机汽车高出28%，停产时间也比一年前延长了24%。即使是市场绝对领导者特斯拉，也认为有必要大幅降价，以保持其获得政府补贴的资格。
汽车巨头可以缩减开支，而小公司却遭受重创。 《华尔街日报》对电动汽车初创企业的分析发现，在2020年至2022年期间成立的43家电动汽车初创企业中，已有5家破产，至少18家公司可能在2024年底前耗尽资金。其余一些公司则专注于高端市场，而这些市场的价格远超大多数买家的承受能力。
不知何故，贾斯汀·特鲁多领导的自由党选择在此时公布渥太华新的电动汽车可用性标准，规定自2035年起，在加拿大销售的所有新车都必须是电动汽车。目前，只有大约十分之一的加拿大人拥有电动汽车，这表明人们对电动汽车的兴趣正在减弱。但这并没有阻止环境部长史蒂文·吉尔博特坚持认为，如果有人生产电动汽车，就会有买家涌入。谁知道呢，他也许是对的，但如果是这样，那么生产这些汽车及其电池的工厂很有可能来自中国或由中国控制的某个地方。
欧盟对北京方面进军其至关重要的汽车市场的决心深感担忧，正对“巨额国家补贴”展开调查，称其让中国车型获得了不公平的优势。随后可能会加征关税。特朗普政府时期，美国对中国汽车征收了27.5%的关税，拜登总统任期内，美国正考虑提高这一税率。中国上汽集团（与通用汽车合资）生产的一款迷你车型在中国的售价约为5500加元，约为大多数欧盟电动汽车价格的四分之一。在英国——中国最大的海外市场——最便宜的替代电动汽车售价约为13000加元，最高时速为45公里/小时。
Nada 最便宜的电动汽车零售价约为 4 万加元。
除了廉价劳动力和制造能力外，中国还控制着生产电动汽车电池所必需的钴和稀土矿物。
全球约 70% 的钴矿产自刚果民主共和国，该国是全球最贫穷、最腐败、最不稳定的国家之一。在刚果 19 家钴矿企业中，有 15 家全部或部分由中国企业拥有。由于环境恶劣，采矿作业有时需要军事保护。北京努力维护和扩大其主导地位，最近禁止出口稀土矿物加工技术，而稀土矿物是其主导的另一种重要电池原料。
中国试图利用技术和商业渠道来获得对民主国家和西方竞争对手的影响力，这已不是什么秘密。在汽车行业的主导地位将极大地推进这一目标。CSIS 2023 年的一份报告警告称，中国在全球电动汽车市场的增长对欧洲和北美的就业和工业竞争力构成了威胁。报告指出，“增加对中国的依赖会带来风险”，因为中国曾利用其经济影响力“惩罚那些挑战其在国际事务中地位的国家”。此外，中国是迄今为止世界上最大的温室气体排放国，并且仍在燃烧大量煤炭。据数据机构全球能源监测组织 (Global Energy Monitor) 估计，中国正在建设的新建燃煤电厂数量是世界其他国家总和的六倍。
全球范围内大量使用燃煤生产的电动汽车几乎无助于应对气候变化。或许这种情况不会发生——或许欧洲、美国甚至加拿大能够找到新的重要矿产资源，并开发出开采这些矿产的手段和技术（更不用说环保审批了），从而能够与中国庞大的低收入人口进行竞争。或许可以降低价格，让低收入人群在2035年后也能买得起汽车。或许有人能想出办法，让数百万住在高层公寓楼和公寓楼里的居民无需建造单独的发电站就能为他们的汽车供电。
无论如何，特鲁多政府表示，这必须在12年内实现。如果情况并非如此，我们也没有已知的B计划。新的曙光是否应该就在悬崖边上？自由党告诉我们，只要对信仰保持信心就好。
Kelly McParland: Justin Trudeau's naive EV plan hands the keys to China
Flooding the world with electric vehicles that Beijing manufactures using power produced by burning coal hardly helps to fight climate change
By Kelly McParland Dec 28, 2023, The American ambassador to Canada is pushing back on Ottawa's travel advice, saying his country doesn't search phones at the border.
People visit a booth for the Chinese EV giant XPeng at the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition on April 19, 2023. Canada's Liberal government is mandating that all cars sold in this country be electric by 2035, but the basic infrastructure to support such a measure is lacking, writes Kelly McParland.
First off, let’s be clear that I have nothing against electric vehicles. Never mind saving the planet, who wants to pull up to a grimy gas pump on a howling winter day and risk hypothermia for the privilege of paying whatever ransom oil companies are demanding for another tankful of “dirty” fuel?
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Or what? Canada controls precisely zero major car manufacturers. We build and buy cars from companies based in other countries. Should they fail to solve the myriad issues still confronting the EV market, a future Canadian government can do nothing about it.
Among auto giants, General Motors has been among the truest of believers. For chief executive Mary Barra, EV constitutes the first two letters in evangelism. Don’t let doubt get in the way, just put your faith in faith.
But there’s trouble in Motor City. GM has backed off a pledge to sell 400,000 electric vehicles by the middle of 2024. It’s also abandoning a US$5-billion joint plan with Honda Motors to develop more affordable EVs. It’s delaying the start of production on electric trucks at a Michigan plant, and bought out half its 2,000 Buick dealerships after they declined to make the investments needed for an all-EV future. GM suspended operations at its self-driving Cruise unit and is diverting US$10 billion to share buybacks to appease nervous investors.
Meanwhile, EV sales are rising, but not at the pace anticipated, resulting in huge backlogs of unsold cars. Ford is either chopping or delaying US$12 billion in EV investments and scaling back a planned battery plant in Michigan. USA Today reported that EV inventories were up 506 per cent from a year ago due to high prices, slowing demand, range anxiety, lack of charging stations and buyers’ growing awareness that EV repair costs can be significantly higher than those for fossil-fuelled cars.
U.S. reports show demand heavily concentrated in a few regions, generally well-off populations in urban areas. According to CarGurus Inc., while prices are falling thanks to excess supply, the average new EV still costs 28 per cent more than an internal-combustion rival, and will sit on the lot 24 per cent longer than a year ago. Even Tesla, the overwhelming market leader, felt the need to slash vehicle prices to keep them eligible for government subsidies.
While the auto giants can retrench, the little guys are getting creamed. A Wall Street Journal analysis of EV startups found that of 43 companies launched between 2020 and 2022, five have gone bust, and at least 18 others are likely to run out of money by the end of 2024. The remainder includes firms strictly focused on the luxury market, well beyond the reach of most buyers.
For reasons left unexplained, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals chose this moment to unveil Ottawa’s new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, mandating that, as of 2035, all new vehicles sold in Canada must be electric. Only about one Canadian in 10 now owns an electric vehicle, amid signs of waning interest. That didn’t stop Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault from insisting that if someone builds them, buyers will come. Who knows, he may be right, but if so there’s a real chance the factory producing the cars and the batteries that run them will be from a plant located or controlled somewhere in China.
The European Union is so worried about Beijing’s determined push into its vital car market that it’s launching a probe into “huge state subsidies” it says give Chinese models an unfair advantage. Tariffs may follow. The U.S. imposed a 27.5 per cent levy under the Trump administration and is considering an increase under President Joe Biden. China’s SAIC Motors makes a mini-model (in a joint venture with GM) that sells in China for about C$5,500, about a quarter the cost of most EU electrics. The cheapest alternative EV in Britain, China’s largest foreign market, costs about C$13,000 with a top speed of 45 km/h. Canada’s cheapest EVs retail around C$40,000.
In addition to cheap labour and manufacturing capacity, China controls much of the cobalt and rare earth minerals essential to producing EV batteries.
About 70 per cent of the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the globe’s poorest, most corrupt and unstable countries. Of 19 Congo cobalt operations, 15 are owned in whole or part by Chinese powers. So harsh are conditions that mining operations sometimes require military protection. Beijing works hard to protect and expand its dominance, recently imposing a ban on the export of technology for processing rare earth minerals, another vital battery input it dominates.
It’s no secret that China aims to use technology and commercial access to gain leverage over democracies and western competitors. Dominance in the auto industry would greatly further that goal. A 2023 CSIS report warned that gains for China in global EV markets represents a threat to jobs and industrial competitiveness in Europe and North America. “Increased dependencies on China carry risks,” it noted, given China’s record of using its economic clout “to punish countries that challenge its position in international affairs.” As well, China is by far the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter and continues to burn vast amounts of coal. Data group Global Energy Monitor calculates China is building six times as many new coal plants as the rest of the world combined.
Flooding the world with EVs produced by burning coal hardly helps fight climate change. Maybe it won’t happen — maybe Europe or the U.S. or even Canada will find new sources of vital minerals and develop the means and technology (not to mention environmental approval) to extract them competitively with China’s vast low-wage population. Maybe prices can be lowered so people with lower incomes can also buy vehicles after 2035. Maybe someone will sort out how millions of people in high-rise condo towers and apartment blocks will all be able to power their vehicles without individual power stations.
In any case, the Trudeau government says it must happen within 12 years. If it doesn’t, we have no known Plan B. And should the new dawn prove to be beckoning just beyond a cliff? The Liberals are telling us to just have faith in faith.
