狼普失策 中国强硬关税，普京伊朗反击

特朗普失策：中国强硬施压关税，普京和伊朗反击，拉里·约翰逊和格伦·迪森联袂出击

2025年4月15日 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpICfa5dZ3c

普京不会坐等特朗普，在特朗普对中国和伊朗采取危险行动之际，他正在加速美国霸权的终结。地缘政治分析师拉里·约翰逊、格伦·迪森和特邀嘉宾前中央情报局分析师雷·麦戈文在这段关于美国帝国现状的必看视频中，解释了唐纳德·特朗普为何正在走向自我毁灭。

我们看到对全世界征收关税，然后在几个小时内，除中国外，所有关税都暂停90天。现在发生了很多事情，美国与伊朗的紧张局势升级，美国军队正在轰炸也门，乌克兰冲突仍在继续，俄罗斯和伊朗也在加快战略伙伴关系的进程。特朗普在其执政的头几个月里表现得非常敌对，现在局势已经崩溃，拉里，您如何看待这一切？就地缘政治形势而言，您认为现在的地缘政治走向与什么相关？因为形势似乎相当危险。

这时，您会说：“好吧，林肯夫人，除此之外，您觉得这部戏怎么样？”好吧，嗯，一些相当……相当……严峻的事情和可能充满希望的事情正在发生……最大的……最大的问题是，如果人们假设特朗普已经认真思考过这些问题，并且以一种批判性的方式提出问题，比如，如果我们对中国征收关税，谁会从关税中受益最多或损失最多？嗯，中国会受到更大的伤害，还是我们会受到更大的伤害？嗯，如果我在也门开始军事行动，我们是否有足够的防空导弹储备来维持我们的存在，同时实现我们在太平洋地区针对中国的目标？嗯，我们是否完全理解俄罗斯和伊朗的新伙伴关系在战略合作方面的含义？现在所有不同的问题，如果你假设特朗普正在……在每一个方面都提出尖锐的问题……嗯，他不是……嗯，我知道……嗯，我不会……我真的说不出我是怎么知道的，除了……呃，一个有权限的人，他的反应是情绪化的，呃，他是凭直觉做出的。就拿中国来说吧。嗯，中国，呃，就其总贸易额而言，美国对中国的重要性在过去三年里已经下降了。我听说，呃，我看到有人估计，美国占中国总贸易额的3%到9%以上。嗯，相比之下，美国对中国的贸易额要大得多。中国一直在抛售美国国债，购买黄金。换句话说，如果他们想与美国建立稳固的关系，他们就会买入美国国债，卖出黄金。恰恰相反。所以，呃，特朗普已经为一场贸易战做好了准备。根据他的假设，他认为他可以赢。但我要说的是，看看这些假设，你就会明白他赢不了。

因为，我以一个简单的例子来结束我的发言。呃，美国正在加大其……军事活动既试图支持以色列的种族灭绝，呃，仍在为乌克兰提供支持，试图轰炸也门人，然后还想准备对抗中国，呃，我们还需要导弹和炮弹，但我可以带你了解每一个类别，并向你展示，在所有主要的，无论是高空爆炸还是袭击，他们都不再制造那些炸药的关键成分之一叫做锑，啊，谁生产锑，那一定是中国，在中国之间有两种选择，如果我们不从中国获得，我们可以从伊朗或俄罗斯购买，所以如果你从战略角度来计算，说嘿，我们将增加我们的军事活动，我们将需要来自中国的这种关键矿物，因此，让我们采取一项政策，我们将尽一切努力激怒中国，这说得通吗？俄罗斯是如何处理的？现在特朗普的做法似乎是呃，伊朗局势升级，而且呃，本质上会给全球经济带来冲击波，引发与中国的贸易战。俄罗斯如何应对？嗯，我认为，他们可能正在失去一些最初对特朗普的希望，正如你在引言中所说，他不断给自己惹的麻烦，相当多，尤其是乌克兰问题，他又开始提供武器情报等等，而我们从《纽约时报》了解到，这场战争实际上是一场美国对德国发动的战争，当然，谈判进展不顺利，他们以制裁威胁俄罗斯，呃，再次提供更多武器，同时，你知道，他有野心要对加沙进行种族清洗，他已经对也门发动了战争，俄罗斯人非常担心伊朗可能会发生什么后果。伊朗开战的后果是，战争将变得难以预测，可能造成的混乱也将非常严重。现在，它当然会演变成一场与中国的经济战争。是的，这很荒谬。我同意拉里的说法。我认为，当我们审视经济战争时，它在很大程度上是一场操纵或改变依赖对称性的竞争。也就是说，当两个国家相互依存时，总会有一方更加依赖另一方。如果是这样，理想情况下，每个国家都希望其他国家都依赖自己，同时减少对其他国家的依赖。现在，你可以做很多事情来减少依赖。你可以拥有很大的战略自主权，中国就是这样的，所以它非常自给自足，你还可以实现经济伙伴关系的多元化。特朗普面临的问题是，他们实际上并没有同样的战略自主权。他们无法自给自足。达到这种程度，而且他们正在切断与世界许多权力中心的联系，所以他们并没有削弱多元化的能力。所以，如果你现在看看，不仅是中国，还有那些砖国家，俄罗斯现在又一次严重依赖它们，你知道，它们拥有所有的自然资源，可以进行所有的采矿和加工，拥有所有的工业能力，拥有自己的技术中心，就想要购买这些产品的人口而言，它们拥有巨大的市场。他们正在建立新的金融工具，所以，是的，砖国家可以完全自给自足。嗯，嗯，是的，为什么这如此荒谬，正如拉里所说，中国人可以实现多元化，摆脱对美国的依赖。我认为美国无法实现多元化，摆脱对中国的依赖。事实上，即使是稀土金属问题，比如锑，也是一个关键问题，那就是锑的供应不足。考虑到中国拥有这些资源，并且几乎完全主导了它的加工。所以，呃，我只是不明白中国如何在这场经济战中被击败。记住，中国拥有的不仅仅是关税武器，他们还可以开始抛售大量美国债务，他们可以制造很多问题，不仅仅是惩罚性行动，而是因为他们担心，如果你认为对手会开始扣押你的资金，就像他们对俄罗斯和欧洲人那样，顺便说一句，呃，你为什么要坐在这里呢？嗯，我认为是凯恩斯提出的论点。
一旦你知道如果有人欠你100美元，那么他们就会有问题。如果他们欠你100万美元，那么你就有问题了，因为你可能拿不到钱。我认为这是中国人和俄罗斯人都担心的问题。所以，呃，俄罗斯会如何回应呢？我认为我们现在看到了这一点，他们不再相信特朗普能够达成和平协议，这在很大程度上也是欧洲人的错。因此，如果没有外交途径，俄罗斯人现在正在准备发动大规模攻势，以便在战场上解决问题。目前很多事情都变得非常糟糕。除了他承诺不会发动的所有这些战争之外，还发生了与中国的经济战争。这真是一团糟。我不明白这背后的逻辑是什么。俄罗斯副外长谢尔盖·拉布科夫最近表示，他没有看到任何迹象表明美国正在采取行动结束乌克兰冲突。特朗普当选后，许多人认为他至少会重新参与拜登在多个战线上发动的一些战争。我的意思是，如果要说联合国和美国情报界有什么好话，那就是他们已经坚定立场20年了，嗯，2022年前，伊朗最高领导人说不制造核武器，2007年，嗯，三年四年后，美国情报界一致决定高度确信伊朗在2003年底就停止了核武器研制工作，如果需要进一步的证据，这一点自那以后每年都得到重申，包括两周前的年度威胁评估报告，报告称最高领导人哈米迪没有重新授权他22年前终止的计划。好吧，所以伊朗没有研制核武器。所以当内塔尼亚胡、特朗普以及所有人，包括他的兄弟姐妹们都说我们要确保伊朗不会……制造核武器时，他们到底想做什么？嗯，现在……游戏的名称……实际上就是内塔尼亚胡希望特朗普做的事情，这一点很明显，他们在周一会面了，好吗？内塔尼亚胡希望特朗普支持……如果有必要，对伊朗发动攻击，他……得到了什么？没有，他得到了什么？特朗普说，我们将开始直接……间接地说，伊朗……周六在阿曼就这个问题进行会谈……这是什么意思？好吧
谁会领导呢？那会是
我的私人朋友说，由怀特领导，特朗普
不是卢比奥，也不是那个叫迪克·特雷西的家伙，是什么？
是迪克·特雷西的头，迪克·特雷西的头，不，他们
他们不会这么做的那么，这到底是怎么回事？呃，还有谈判的空间。
我觉得有人对特朗普说：“你知道吗？伊朗人现在有自己的威慑力量。你知道吗？他们成功袭击了以色列的许多基地。呃，你知道吗？尽管你热爱以色列，但它终将被摧毁。它终将被摧毁。你听说特朗普先生，如果你发动战争，如果你让内塔尼亚胡发动战争，而你帮助他，它终将被摧毁。还有其他什么事吗？嗯，这里有一丝风吹草动。呃，两天前路透社报道称，一些武装民兵，一些伊朗支持的伊拉克人，其中八到十人说，你知道我们会暂停，呃，我们甚至可能解除武装，呃，我们不想再继续下去了。哇，这难道不是美国伸出的橄榄枝吗？我不知道以色列人的情况，但这确实很独特，可以用具体情况来解释。不过，在我看来，伊朗人
也愿意和以色列打交道。唯一需要做的就是让特朗普意识到，我认为他已经意识到，他不仅在乌克兰问题上，而且在中东问题上都拿了非常非常糟糕的牌。当WITCO与伊朗人对话时，他们会
说：“你看，我们说的是间接的，你们总统说的是直接的，他们就打算间接的。” 好吧，你有什么办法？
现在我认为惠特足够聪明，能够弄清楚以色列和伊朗真正需要什么，然后他会和特朗普通电话。我不知道卢比奥、沃尔兹或其他人会不会关注此事，但这就是正在发生的事情，这很好，很好，因为惠特已经证明自己有能力为特朗普说话。他可能不太了解伊朗，每个人都在小题大做，
他没必要这么做。他所要做的就是达成协议，他知道特朗普愿意接受的条件，所以我
现在看到一个持续数周的时期，至少相对来说，人们不会太担心特朗普是否会让自己陷入支持内塔尼亚胡的困境，而内塔尼亚胡有充分的理由与伊朗对伊朗发动战争。呃，是的，如果我们需要军事行动，我们就会动用军事力量，以色列显然会深度参与其中，他会成为其中的领导者，但没有人领导我们，我们做我们想做的事情。没有人领导我们，我们做我们想做的事情。在他刚刚说完，我们会让以色列领导，是的，所以他说，是的，这就是为什么我说特朗普完全掌控了局面，所以让我们退一步，客观地看看正在发生的事情。好消息是，特朗普唯一的要求，他说他们希望从谈判中获得的唯一东西，就是伊朗不能拥有核武器。伊朗会说“太好了，我们”没有。”我们让俄罗斯和中国来核实这一点，但我们会允许美国来核实，所以特朗普基本上会重新接受旧的《联合全面行动计划》，他现在已经退出了，谈判的重点是伊朗可以在多大程度上用于和平用途，伊朗可以浓缩铀，他们正在与俄罗斯合作，这是1月17日签署的战略合作协议的一部分，但基于本周在莫斯科与中国和俄罗斯的会晤，伊朗在谈判中处于更有利的地位，你知道，当伊朗坐在谈判桌前时，它可以把他拉到肩上说：“我想让你见见我的两个兄弟，我的大哥。”所以伊朗不会空手而归，特朗普过去曾暗示，他将要求伊朗切断对胡塞武装的所有援助。哈马斯和真主党，所有这些都是基于一个假设，那就是有大量的援助，我想说这是值得怀疑的，但我们只知道，这将是美国的要求之一，呃，目前尚不清楚，呃，伊朗是否会就此做出让步，但伊朗与该合作组织于1月17日签署了战略合作协议，该协议已获得杜马批准，呃，本周已批准，呃，现在表明，你知道，这是一项至少为期20年的协议，而且它非常重要，因为它涵盖了俄罗斯与伊朗的军事关系、情报关系、外交关系和经济关系等各个方面的影响，最重要的是，正如格伦和雷都指出的那样，你知道唐纳德·特朗普在这里没有任何王牌，呃，事实上，他可能能够出来宣布胜利，我认为我希望在一种情况下因为会谈结束后，他们会说，天哪，我们告诉伊朗人协议的内容，他们已经同意不会制造核武器，嗯，他们已经同意不制造核武器了，但特朗普却把他们的协议归功于自己，他可以吹捧这是一次外交成功，
而实际上，我认为他有点强硬，因为他有……你知道吗现在我有时也犯过粗鲁和庸俗的错误，但是你知道昨晚在共和党的筹款活动上，他说，对于全世界 70 个国家试图通过谈判避免征收关税，他们在拍我的马屁，他说现在我向你保证，至少 80% 甚至 100% 的国家排队拍特朗普声称要拍他的马屁，他们不会说“伙计，让我看看我是否可以买一些润唇膏，这样我就可以维持这种关系。”我喜欢拍特朗普的马屁，我觉得他已经激励更多国家想办法团结起来，摆脱美国这种欺凌和霸权主义的愚蠢行径。呃，俄罗斯、中国和伊朗正在真正扮演全球领导角色。呃，拉里刚才提到了核谈判，这在唐纳德·特朗普与伊朗代表会面之前就已经开始了。所以，这只是触及合作的表面。你如何看待这种发展趋势？特朗普似乎正在恶化这种趋势。特朗普实际上正在加速这一进程。是的，这三个国家是欧亚大陆上的三大巨头。现在，俄罗斯和中国的一个关键逻辑是，俄罗斯在西部边境面对以美国为首的北约，而中国在东部沿海面对美国，所以他们不得不背靠背以保持安全。现在，拉拢伊朗是有道理的。在某种程度上，你确实听到过几年特兰（Thran）说，他们的主要战略伙伴关系应该与莫斯科和北京建立，嗯，是的，这将允许他们建立替代的经济机构，这也是为什么伊朗现在也受到欢迎，并将获得加入上海合作组织和金砖国家的机会。所以现在俄罗斯和伊朗开展更多军事合作也是合理的，尤其是在他们在叙利亚的合作以及伊朗在乌克兰战争期间的支持之后，所以他们之间的关系越来越密切，这很有意义，因为为了减少对西方的依赖，同时也为了建立适当的国防，共同努力是合理的。话虽如此，值得注意的是，如果特朗普想与伊朗达成政治协议，那么俄罗斯可能是一个重要的合作伙伴，因为俄罗斯并不真的想伊朗也拥有核武器。中国也没有。所以他们可以成为重要的合作伙伴，遵守任何已达成的协议。但我认为，俄罗斯和中国都认为，与伊朗重新谈判《联合全面行动计划》的努力存在严重缺陷。请记住，现在要求伊朗放弃核威慑力，你知道他们之所以争论，是因为正如里和拉里所说，伊朗没有核武器。那么特朗普想要什么呢？他不希望伊朗成为门槛国家，所以他们必须消除其物质能力，他还希望伊朗削减导弹打击范围。他们希望伊朗削减对也门真主党和哈马斯的支持，这样实际上就等于放弃了安全保障，嗯，是的，把安全移交给美国和以色列，并希望他们通过屈服，嗯，
他们不会这么做。任何对伊朗不利的事情，这就是主要问题所在，你不能真正威胁别人放弃他们的威慑力量，因为威胁他们只会让他们明白为什么需要威慑力量，我的意思是，这应该是常识，嗯，所以，嗯，不，我认为，嗯，是的，与中国和俄罗斯的伙伴关系是双向的，一方面，如果美国决定加大制裁或使用军事力量，他们可以提供某种形式的支持，嗯，但如果美国想与伊朗达成协议，这不符合俄罗斯或中国的利益，嗯，你知道，让中国关闭重要的海上运输走廊，实际上关闭全球经济，这不符合他们的利益，所以，嗯，他们可以作为和平伙伴，或者，如果美国对伊朗开战，他们反而会成为伊朗的伙伴，嗯，他们在这件事上确实扮演着一个有趣的角色。

Trump MISFIRES: China CRUSHES Tariffs, Putin & Iran CLAP BACK w/ Larry Johnson & Glenn Diesen

2025年4月15日  #putin #tariffs #china
Putin won't wait around for Trump and is accelerating the end of US hegemony amid Trump's dangerous moves against China and Iran. Geopolitical analysts Larry Johnson, Glenn Diesen and special guest former CIA analyst Ray McGovern explain why Donald Trump is laying the path toward his own destruction in this must-watch video on the state of the American empire.

we saw tariffs on the entire world go into play and then immediately within hours we saw all of them be paused for 90 days except on china there's so much going on there's us escalations with iran the us military is bombing yemen we still have the ukraine conflict and we also have russia and iran speeding up their strategic partnerships trump melting down in what has been an incredibly hostile first couple of months under his reign what do you make of all of this larry uh what do you find to be uh uh pertinent right now in terms of where things are going geopolitically because it seems quite dangerous that's
one of those moments where you say "okay mrs lincoln other than that thing how did you like the play?" okay so uh some pretty uh some pretty uh grim things and potentially hopeful things going on uh the big the big problem is that if people are assuming that trump has sat down thought through these issues on in a critical fashion asking questions such as um who stands to benefit or or lose the most from the tariffs if if we impose tariffs on china uh is china going to be hurt worse or are we going to be hurt worse uh if i start military operations in yemen do we have the stockpiles of air defense missiles to sustain our presence while also meeting the goals that we
have set for ourselves in the pacific against china uh do we fully comprehend what uh russia and iran's new partnership is in terms of a strategic cooperation now all different issues and if you're assuming that trump is making uh is asking pointed questions in each of those categories uh he's not uh i i know that um is i won't i can't really say how i know that other than uh someone with access he is reacting emotionally uh he's reacting from his gut and let's just take the example of china um china uh a as a percentage of its total trade the us has become less important important to china over the last three years it's it's still i i've i've heard uh i've seen estimates between 3% of china's total cha trade and upwards of 9% um by contrast the united states sends a lot more in trade to china and china has been selling off us treasuries and buying gold in other words things that if they were looking
for a solid relationship with the united states they would be buying treasuries and selling gold just the opposite
so uh trump has set himself up for a trade war that based on his assumptions he thinks he can win but i what i come back and say is look at those assumptions and recognize he can't win
because just one i'll close with this one simple example uh the us is stepping up its military activities both trying to support israel's genocide uh stills providing support to ukraine bomb trying to bomb the stuffing out of the yemenes and then also wanting to be ready to go against china uh we need missiles yet and artillery shells but i can take you through each of the categories and show you that in in all the major whether they're talking highs or attacks they no longer make those one of the critical ingredients for the explosives is called antimony ah who produces antimony that would be china and between china there there there are two alternatives if we don't get it from china we can buy it from iran or from russia so if you're calculating from a strategic standpoint saying hey we're going to increase our military activity and we're going to need this critical mineral from china therefore let's adopt a policy where we're going to do everything in our power to piss off
china does that make sense no how is russia dealing with this what seems to be trump's approach now which is uh
escalate with iran and also uh essentially cause send shock waves throughout the global economy in a trade
war with china how is russia dealing
with this well i think there it might be
losing some of the initial hopes they
had for trump as you said in the
introduction uh the amount of trouble he
keeps bringing on himself is quite
extraordinary that is with ukraine the
fact that he's back at supplying the
weapons intelligence uh and all of this
while we learned from new york times
that this war has effectively been an
american war run out of germany now of
course the negotiations aren't going
well they they're responding by threatening russia with sanctions and uh again sending more weapons and at the
same time you know the he has his
ambitions to ethnically cleanse gaza
he's gone to war against yemen the
russians are quite worried about what could happen in iran the consequ ences of going to war in iran it's it's it will be too unpredictable and the possible chaos will be too great and now of course it's going to take on a e an economic war with china it's yeah it's quite absurd i i i agree with what uh larry said i i think when we look at the economic warfare it's to a large extent it's a competition to manipulate or shift the the symmetry of dependence that is you know when you have two countries who are nterdependent you always have one side which is more
dependent on the other so if so ideally each country would like for everyone to be dependent on them while they reduce their dependence on others now you can
do many things to reduce your dependence you can have a lot of strategic autonomy which china does so that is very self-sufficient and it can you can also diversify your economic partnerships the problem for trump is that they don't really have the same um strategic autonomy uh they're not self-sufficient to this extent and also they're cutting themselves off from a lot of centers of
power in the world so they're not reducing the ability to diversify so if you look now at not just china but the
bricks countries which again russia's leaning heavily into now is you know they have all the natural resources to
do all the mining the processing they have all the industrial capabilities they have their own tech centers they have a huge market in terms of the population who wants to buy this uh theyhave they're setting up new  financial instruments uh so yeah across the board
bricks can be a very self-sufficient to grouping and uh and uh yeah why this is so absurd is again as larry suggested this is uh the the chinese can diversify away from the us i don't see the us being able to diversify away from china indeed even the rare earth met metal issues such as antimony is is is a is a key problem there's not enough of it and given that china has this and also almost completely dominates on the processing of it so it's uh i i just don't see how how china can be beat in this economic war and keep in mind that china has more than a tariff weapon they can begin to dump a lot of the us debts and they can cause a lot of problems not just as punitive or punishing action but indeed because they're fearful if you think that the adversary will start to seize your funds steal it like they did with russia the europeans as well by the way uh why why would you want to sit on this um i think it was kanes who made the who argued
once you know if someone own owes you $100 uh then uh they have a problem if they owe you a million then you have a problem because you might not get the money and i think this is what is concerning the chinese as well as the russians so uh so how do russia respond well i think we see this now they they don't believe anymore that the trump can deliver on a a peace deal which is largely the european's fault as well so the russians are now building up for a massive offensive to well solve things on the battlefield if there's no diplomatic path so a lot of things are going very wrong at the moment so having this economic war with china on top of all of these wars which he promised he wouldn't start it's uh it's just a huge mess i i don't understand what the logic is behind a lot of this sergey rabkov the deputy foreign minister of russia recently said that he's seen no indications that the united states is moving to end the ukraine conflict when trump was elected many people believed he was going to at least re in some of the wars that biden had launched essentially on multiple fronts i mean if you can say something good about the un us intelligence community is that they have stood firm for 20 well uh 20 22 years ago the iranian um supreme leader said no nukes we don't build nukes and in 2007 what uh three four years later the us intelligence community decided unanimously with high confidence that iran stopped working on a nuclear weapon right then at the end of 2003 and if further proof were needed that has been reaffirmed every year since including two weeks ago at the annual threat assessment saying that hami the supreme leader has not reauthorized the program that he killed 22 years ago well okay so iran is not working on a nuclear weapon so when netanyahu and trump and everybody and his brother and sister say we're going to make sure that iran doesn't doesn't
make a nuclear weapon what are they trying to do okay now um the name of the
game really is what netanyahu wanted trump to do and that was clear they met on monday okay netanyu wanted trump to bless sto voce
if necessary an attack on iran did he
get that no what did he get instead
we're going to start direct says trump
indirect say the iranian uh talks on this very issue uh in oman on saturday what does that mean well who's going to be led that's going to be
led by whit my personal guy says trump
not rubio or that guy dick tracy what is
it dick tracy head dick tracy head there no they
they're not going to do that so what's what's up here uh there's room for talks
here i think that somebody got to uh to trump and said "look you know did you know that the iranians have their own deterrent now did you know that they successfully hit many bases in in in israel uh did you know as much as you love israel it's going to be destroyed it's going to be destroyed you hear that mr trump it's going to be destroyed if you start a war if you let netanyahu start a war and you you help him what other things there there was some well there's a wisp in the wind here uh there
were reports reuters carried them two days ago that some of the armed militias some of the iranian supported people in iraq many of them like eight or 10 of them said you know we're going to hold off uh we might even disarm uh we don't want to pursue this anymore whoa is that a kind of an olive branch dished out by the israelians i don't know but it certainly is unique and it can be explained by circumstances but uh it seems to me that the iranians are
willing to deal too the only thing necessary is for trump to realize as i think he has that he's gotten very very bad cards not only on ukraine but on the middle east and that when witco gets to talk to the iranians they're going to
say "look we said indirect your president said direct they're going to be indirect." all right what do you got
now i think whit is going to be smart enough to find out what the israeli what the iranians really need and he'll be on the phone with trump i don't know if rubio or waltz or that other guy heads will be tuned in or not but that's what's happening and that's good that's good because whit has shown himself able to speak for trump he's he may not know much about iran everybody's make a big
deal of that he doesn't have to all he has to do is deal and he knows the terms that trump is willing to settle for so i
see a protracted period now several weeks at least a relative less anxiety with respect to whether trump is going to let himself be sucked in mousetrapped into supporting netanyahu in a war that he has lots of reasons to wage against iran with iran uh yeah if we if it requires military we're going to have military israel will obviously be very much involved in that he'll be the leader of that but nobody leads us we do what we want to do nobody leads us we do what we want to do after he just got through saying we'll let uh israel lead yes so he says so yeah that's why i said trump is all over the board so let's uh let's step back and look you know objectively at what's going on well the good news was trump's only demand the only thing he said that they wanted out of the negotiations was that iran can't have a nuke iran would go "great we don't have one." and we got russia and china to verify that but we will allow you the united states to come in and verify so basically trump's going to go back to accepting the old jcpoa uh which he he withdrew from now uh items to be negotiated in that are at what level of for peaceful use can uh iran enriched uranium and they're doing that collaboratively with russia as part of the strategic cooperation agreement that was signed on january 17th but uh iran's coming into these negotiations in a in a much stronger position based upon the meetings this week in moscow with the chinese and the russians you know they're when when iran sits down at the table it can pull him over his shoulder and said "i'd like you to meet my two brothers my big brothers." so iran's not going in there with an empty hand uh in in the past trump has intimated that he was going to demand that iran cut off all assistance to the houthis and hamas and hezbollah all of that's predicated on the assumption that there's a significant amount of assistance i would i would say that's questionable but let's just you know go with it that that would be one of the us demands uh it's not clear that uh iran will concede on that but the alliance that iran signed with that cooperative the strategic cooperative agreement on january 17th which the duma approved uh ratified this week uh now puts that you know that's that's envisioned at least a 20-year deal and and it is it's it's extremely important because it covers all aspects effects of both a military relationship that russia has with iran intelligence relationship diplomatic relationship and economic relationship most of all so the united states uh as you know has been pointed out by both glenn and ray you know donald trump's not holding any trump cards here uh he's in fact he may be able to come out and declare a victory i i think one one scenario i hope for is after the meeting they're going to say by god we we told those iranians what the deal was and that they've agreed they're not going to build a nuclear weapon well they'd
already agreed not to do that but trump gets to take credit for their agreement he can tout it as a diplomatic successnow i i've been guilty of being crude and vulgar sometime but you know last night uh at that republican fundraiser where he said was with respect to the 70 nations around the world that are trying to negotiate to not have the tariffs imposed they're kissing my ass he said now i guarantee you uh at least 80% if not a 100% of those countries that are lining up says trump claims to kiss his ass are not going out saying "man let me see if i can buy some chapstick so i can maintain this kind of relationship." i love kissing trump's ass i think he has
incentivized more countries to figure out how to join bricks to separate from this kind of us bullying and hgemonic imbeic imbeicility uh russia china and
iran are really moving into a global leadership role uh larry just mentioned the nuclear talks which have started
before donald trump can even uh meet with uh uh the uh iranian uh representatives so uh and this only touches the surface of the cooperation what do you make of of this development this trend and it seems like trump is worsening this trump is actually making this process accelerate yeah well these are three large giants on the eurasian continent now the a key logic for russia and china was that the the russians face nato led by the us on its western borders china faces the us off its coast on the east so they kind of had to have their backto back as a way of staying safe now it makes sense to pull in iran to some extent in into this and indeed you heard this coming from thran for a few years now that their main strategic
partnerships should be organized with
moscow and beijing as uh yeah this would
allow them to set up alternative economic institutions indeed this is why iran also has been embraced
now with and will gain access to the
shanghai cooperation organization as
well as brics so it also makes sense now
for the russians and the iranians to do
more more military cooperation
especially after uh the way they cooperated in syria and also iran's support during the ukraine war so
they're getting much uh yeah much closer
and it it just makes sense in order to have yeah collectively to be able to reduce dependence on on the west but also to build up um proper defense of
defense now this being said it's worth noting that if uh trump wants a political or a deal with the iranians
that russia could be an important partner because russia doesn't really want iran to have nuclear weapons either
neither does china so they could be important partners to to observe any agreement which is made but uh i think
the yeah the russians like as well as the chinese for sake they they look at this effort to renegotiate the jcpoa
with the iranians as being um yeah deeply flawed keep in mind that what is being asked now of iran is largely to give up its deterrent that is uh you know they arguing because as both ry and larry said there's no they don't have a nuclear weapon so what what is it that trump wants well he doesn't want them to be a threshold state so they have to eliminate their material capabilities they also want them to reduce their their their missiles the the distance they can reach uh they want them to cut support for yemen hezbollah hamas so effectively to give up its security and uh yeah hand it over to the united states and israel and hope that uh by subordinating self that uh
they won't do anything bad to iran and this is the main problem you can't really threaten someone to give up their deterrent because by threatening them you only make it clear why they need a deterrent i mean this should be common sense and uh so um no i i i think uh the yeah the partnership with china and russia it has it can work both ways on one hand if the us decides to increase sanctions or use military force then they can provide some form of support um but also if the us wants to might make a deal with iran it's it's not in russia's or china's interest to have um you know the to have china sorry to have iran close down important maritime transportation corridors and shut down effectively the global economy it's not there in their interest so uh they they can function as a partner for peace or they can if the us goes to war against
iran they would be yeah an an partner of iran instead so uh it's they do have an interesting role in this