克里斯托夫•金 (Christopher Jing)

20世纪80年代末赴美留学,从事金融投资与危机管理、高科技风险基金和跨国企业战略。近期访问中国和日本,旅途中博文断续,敬请谅解。
正文

“中美开战”的几率小于“中印再战”

(2009-04-18 13:57:42) 下一个


美国,是一个生活在严重“危机意识”阴霾下的警醒民族,似乎每一天都在你死我活的刀尖口迎送着世界末日,以此凝聚举国上下朝野各派的民心共识、激发众志成城励精图治的战斗氛围。

中国人,“危机意识”相对淡薄,传统上高调、张扬,喜歌功颂德,争天下第一、崇太平盛世,只有当外敌的入侵深入到刀架在脖子上,才会引起警觉。

中美、中印,是否开战或再战,是一个无法回避的悠关国家和民族“危机意识”的真实话题。

中美开战?

21世纪的今天,世界各国,无论大小和强弱,正在经历和见证一场仍在发酵、升温、远未消逝的结构性经济危机,在经济全球化的框架下,中国和美国两个本职属性完全不同的大国,破天荒地跨越社会主义和资本主义的森严壁垒走到一起,同舟共济,共克时艰。


2009年4月4日,G20高峰会期间、美国《金融时报》和《华尔街日报》头版热点新闻上不约而同地刊登了一张十分有趣的照片。

照片中,美国总统奥巴马、意大利总理贝卢斯科尼以及俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫三位首脑嬉笑逗乐地拥作一团,奥巴马刻意地笑对镜头举起大拇指,梅德韦杰夫也举掌诙谐地致意,而前排正中的中国国家主席胡锦涛则面露自信的微笑,显得轻松愉快。

照片有趣,因为它释出这样一个明确的气息,即中国的国际形象在世人心目中发生了根本性变化,其国际地位在金融风暴中骤然得到了空前的提升,中国以外汇储备两万亿美元雄居世界之最,以气势磅礴地推出4万亿人民币刺激内需经济计划的大手笔,一跃成为G20高峰会众星捧月的主角。

中美关系,随之翩翩起舞,首次从经济合作入手,结成从未有过的互相依赖的利益伙伴关系,历史性地在G20高峰会上定格,合影留存这样一张寓意深刻的“密月照”。

尽管中美两国在整体实力上仍然具有相当的差距,如比较两国2008年的国民生产总值(GDP),美国14.33万亿美元,中国4.22万亿美元,美国是中国的3.3倍,但从动态的历史发展来看,两国之间原有的巨大差距正在不断缩小是一个不争的事实。

中美之间,抛开正在逐步减弱的意识形态方面的较真,经济上已经扎扎实实地捆绑在一起,相互需求超过任何其它国家,具体而言,美国是中国最大的消费国,中国是美国最大的债权国,中国不仅为美国生产物美价廉的中低档产品,还提供其他任何国家和国际组织无法提供的美元货币。

从近30年来两国领导人之间的友好互动和“肢体语言”来看,美国历届总统下台后均不约而同地变身为民间促进中美友好力量中最活跃的分子 —— 尼克松、里根、福特、卡特、老布什、克林顿、小布什,可以切实感受到两国人民之间的示好和尊重并不如境外某些异见媒体所一直渲染的那样,充满敌意和水火不容。

理论上,美国需要一个虽不是不堪一击但决不是强大到武装到牙齿的敌人来增强危机意识和军备扩展,以美国人历次战争的充分谋略和战前准备来看,“绝对的胜算”是战争的最高目标,因此,美国军队从来不屑国际间“以石击卵”的讥笑,胜者王败者寇,毫不犹豫地“大炮打蚊子”,集中优势兵力各个击破,将伤亡减少到最小,确保战争的全胜。

实际上,追求中美两国人民之间的互惠一直是朝野两党和民心的主流趋势,美国是一个多元化民族的“大熔炉”,是崇尚技能集成人才的移民国家,如果没有特别的理由,绝顶聪明的美国不会直接地在军事上挑战一个地缘上远隔千山万水的国家,特别是这个国家一直主动施以美国人友好和妥协的“笑脸”,史实上曾经与美国在韩战和越战上激烈厮杀而且不相上下,综合实力使所有对手为之胆寒。

中美之间在今天的百年一遇的金融危机演变的经济危机中,全方位合作都来不及,短期和中期兵戎相见的可能性几乎为零。

当然,美国基于长期的国家战略利益对于中国的遏制企图和“敲打动作”决不会因此沉寂,马放南山,仍然会推波助澜,“坐山观虎斗”,根据在自身发展的某一个特定的危机阶段从现实和长远利益的层面做战略性调整。

问题是,这样一个几乎是常态规律性的调整,是否一定要透过惨烈的战争厮杀两败俱伤的方式来进行,还是通过非战争手段的零星摩擦针锋相对的途径来解决?

在经济危机肆虐的现阶段,中美之间的经济利益决定了“避免大战”的几率。

为了巩固和发展这一重要历史时期的和平稳定,抓住机遇,中国完全有能力化百年一遇的危机为百年不遇的契机,以相对自由灵活的股权、资产和人才并购的方式逆向操作,登陆美国核心支柱性相关产业高滩阵地,囤积中国所需的稀缺性战略资源,与美国形成与经济利益挂钩的不可分割的战略伙伴关系。

当然,聪明的美国人不会眼看着“中国龙”势如破竹地做大,他可以技巧地换一种方式在背后怂恿和操纵一个有能力有动机与中国抗衡的“核大国”,对中国实施直接和间接地挑衅和牵制。

比如说,打一场代理人的战争,让“中国龙”后院起火,顾此失彼。

这个代理人或代理国,除了已经拥有12亿人口、多核弹头、并充分自傲在“自由民主、高端人才和技术资源”上更胜中国一筹的印度,别无它国。

印度人口2008年超过11.3亿,此前,联合国人口基金会在其公布的《2008世界人口状况报告》中预测,到2050年时印度人口将达16.58亿人,超过中国同年的14.08亿人,成为世界人口第一大国。

更何况中印两国边境毗邻相连,极易引发战争冲突的导火索。

毋庸置疑,中国通过印度的“宿敌”巴基斯坦接招,“打前站”,缓冲来自印方的直接威胁,一直是印度对中国无法再起战火的根本原因。

巴基斯坦对印度的恩怨,不亚于印度对中国的仇恨,特别是印度1971年悍然出兵侵略东巴基斯坦并使之永久性地被肢解成一个再不附属于巴基斯坦的国家。

印巴之间的冲突由来已久,一触即发,随时都有失控的危险。

尽管对巴基斯坦的强硬政策和战争恐吓可瞬间掀起印度民族一致对外的战争狂热,印度同时清晰地认识到,与巴基斯坦之战即与中国一战,中国才是巴基斯坦的坚强后盾。

中国,协助巴基斯坦发展核子武器,在历次印巴战争中扮演的“大后方”角色,中巴之间的军事交流非常态的密切,中巴领导人在国际舞台上从不否认相互之间的全力合作和亲密无间。

中巴是公认的全天候“铁哥儿们”,中国不会坐视巴基斯坦在自己的眼皮底下狼烟四起。

中印再战?

中印之间,完全呈现一番波云诡谲战争风云时隐时现的态势。

中国和印度是世代“冤家”,民间的友好是个别现象,不足以弥补两国之间深深的鸿沟和恩怨。

印度与中国,地源上具有极易擦枪走火触发大规模军事冲突的有争议的漫长边境,历史上因1962年边境战争败于中国在印度国民心中烙下的国家恩怨和深仇大恨,政治上因长期公开庇护和纵容达赖喇嘛不断挑起的一波波全球性反华逆流愈演愈烈,经济上与中国激烈角逐共争“金砖领袖”实力相当互不相让,军事上更是核弹头全方位对准中国决一雌雄……

印度,具有一切与中国一战的动机和理由。

中印必有一战,不是明天,便是后天,或是不远的将来。

中印历史上的一战,中国虽胜,却付出了沉重的代价,不仅永远失去了西藏的精华 —— 藏南最肥沃的9万平方公里的祖国土地,还埋下了战败国印度世世与中国相克、较劲和冲突的“种子”。

中国的痛,中国人最清楚。

中印之间的角逐和争斗早已暗潮汹涌,印度高层不时放话强调不惜再战的决心,而中国总是在克制和退让中迂回展示自己的实力和意志,然而,下面就不同了,印方军事领袖们屡屡恶语中伤中国的经济发展和防卫能力,挑战中国致力于改革开放和和平建设的底线。

为什么?

这是势均力敌的“中国龙”和“印度象”在同一个级别和同一条边界上的决斗,不可避免!

印度,是货真价实的人口大国和核大国,是一个自信心极强的民族,格外“记仇”,视1962中印战争中的落败为“国耻”和“国仇”,一直耿耿于怀,事实上,印度所有的核武器建造和部署都是为了遏制中国而不是防范其他国家和“天敌”巴基斯坦。

印度为达赖喇嘛在达兰萨拉建国,其目的昭然若揭,最令中国耿耿于怀如鲠在喉的是印度至今都在为达赖喇嘛的西藏独立摇旗呐喊,提供叛乱分子以中印边界为桥梁、阴谋出逃和武装潜入中国国境的“大后方”,旨在与中国势不两立,伺图透过其宗教势力的国际影响永远地致衡中国。

 


回顾一下中印战争的始末: 中国与印度的边界约2000公里,分西、中、东三段。

到1951年前后,印军侵占中国历届政府从未承认过的“麦克马洪线”以南约9万平方公里的英国殖民者所占的领土,此外,在中段和西段,印度亦侵占部分中国领土,1959年,印军越过双方实际控制线建立了43个据点,中国政府提出谈判解决边境问题,未得印度方面的接受。


所谓的“麦克马洪线”是英国人自己定的,是英国殖民政府强加於西藏南部的分界线,任何时候的中国政府都没承认过,是西方肢解中国的一部分,就像英国在巴基斯坦和印度之间的所作所为一样,1947年印度立国后,认为他们有权利继承英国殖民者占据的中国领土,宣称藏南地区属于印度。


1950年,趁中国忙于朝鲜战争,印度占领了“麦克马洪线”以南地区,单方面改变边界现状。

1954年,印度修改官方地图,将“麦克马洪线”作为中印之间的边界线。

1962年,中印边境战争在多年的局部冲突后正式爆发,从印度军队侵略挑衅开始,以中国军队自卫反击大获全胜结束。

美联社报道,“中共军队在喜马拉雅山南麓像快刀切奶油一样横扫印军”,遗憾的是,中国总是见好就收,中国军队单方面宣布停火,并主动撤退到1959年11月中印实际控制线后20公里,希望以此推进谈判,然而,直到1981年12月,中印两国才重新恢复边界谈判。

目前,中印边界长约2000公里,从未正式划定,双方争议地区约12.5万平方公里。

虽然赢了战争,但结果是惨痛的……

中国方面:从“麦克马洪线”上,再向北撤退20公里。

印度方面:印度官方将藏南和达旺纳入版图。

中印两国历史上的恩恩怨怨一直延续到今天,而且可能需要更长的时间才能从根本上化解,印度的海外企业家和学者几乎一面倒地难以掩饰其对中国崛起的暧昧和憎恨,真正敬佩和服气中华文化、历史和实力的印度人少之又少。

中国与印度,同样在为挤入世界强国之列而奋斗,都自信将在21世纪步入繁荣,不过,在中印崛起的过程中,两国政府所扮演的角色截然不同。

中国将是在强势政府的导向下逐步达到目标,印度则是在一个松散的民主制度下迟缓地期待繁荣,中国企业结构的基础是国企民企和外资,印度主要与世界级大企业建立高效率的战略伙伴关系。

当印度完成新一轮的改革之后,或象它所说在20年后超越中国,它将变成一个令中国敬畏的国家,这也许会成为中国在政治,经济和军事层面不可忽视的、有可能一触即发的危机。

文明古国的印度,实力不可低估,2004年至2008年经济连续保持年均9%左右的高增长速度,外汇储备位列世界第五,达2800亿美元,经济总量超过1万亿美元,与巴西、俄罗斯、中国成为“金砖四国”,同属新兴市场国家。

作为世界上陆地边界最长、陆上邻国最多、边界问题最复杂的国家之一,中国用60年的时间,改变了几千年来“有边无界”的状况,结束了几百年来的边界纷争,目前,除印度和不丹(未与中国建立外交关系)外,中国已与12个邻国确定了陆地边界。

中国的边界曾被西方称为“ 动荡之源”,如今它们不得不承认,中国边界的稳定已成为亚洲安全与发展之本。

印度军方近来向中国频频发出战争威胁,最近在西藏南部边境地区对中国挑衅不断,在靠近中印边境的地区大规模修建军事设施,并积极进行军事演习,大叫甚至不惜和中国一战。

中印之间既有历史恩怨,又有领土争议,更有现实争端,印度至今仍然强占着中国藏南9万方公里的领土,对藏独势力明纵暗护,尤其是对六十年代的边界战争失败耿耿于怀,早就想报一箭之仇。

印度精英们一直都有南亚“霸主”之梦,不仅要“恢复”英国当年的“风光”(控制从伊朗南部到缅甸),又妄图进取中国新疆、西藏两地区,但是印度的冒险每次都遭到中国的多方面的有力回击。

面对印度赤裸裸的挑衅,中国高挂免战牌,大打和平牌,外交部发言人称感到“惊讶”,大谈双方伙伴关係“互不威胁”,实底下,则忧心忡忡。

印度军方高层称“中印十年间必有一战”,是发自内心的实话实说,绝非空穴来风,必须认真对待,两个人口居多的国家之间的战争似乎难以避免……

应该说,印度对1962边境战争的落败一直刻骨铭心,卧薪尝胆,对中国发自内心的仇恨加上达赖喇嘛的从中作梗推波助澜,以及两国间经济利益的激烈角逐和对抗,其军备和核武器一直以中国为假想敌,使局部甚至全面战争爆发的几率不断升高。

迟浩田上将曾写到:“在战国时代,一国的发展就意味着对另一国的威胁,这是世界历史上的通则,也是西方外交的核心和基石。在国家利益这一残忍的领域,容不得任何温情,谁要是抱着一丝一毫的幻想,谁就会遭到大历史残酷的惩罚。”

中国在设法避免两个毗邻边境人口密度世界数一数二的核大国之间任何战争的同时,情愿也好,不情愿也好,必须面对!

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群思 回复 悄悄话 依我看全世界的无产者没能联合起来,但资本家们却在全球经济化中联合了起来,在中美,中印之间打仗的可能都不大,当权者都是保护资本家利益的。中俄的资本关系不太清初。俄是个地源,资源大国,为资源而去挑战的可能性似乎也不那抹大。
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 很多中国人的母语已经差到无可比拟的程度,可能比从前小学五年级的学生都差!
看看国内们的记者报道即知:用字错误,介绍新闻时不知介绍什么东西,数字单位常常错...又夸大不实;
一次,说某地的降雨量是[0.2到5.1毫米],明明是厘米都不知道,我特一打越洋电话,跟他们的编辑吵了一通,他当时还不太懂...
自己的语言都弄不通,而现在拼命学英语...大脑有问题!
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 近来哈佛教授说出中美国观念,就是:中国一直供应廉价物品给美国人消费,这平等吗? 中国都快成大垃圾桶了!中国能够一直这样继续下去吗? 明显的不可能!
这位哈佛大学经济史教授是尼尔·弗格森(?Neal Fergusen?/spelling?)
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 中国过分的强调英文是错误的!
好像全国人都在学,大多数人根本用不着,威吓浪费时间精力去做这事?完全不合市场学原则!
而对邻国的语言不重视,真实岂有此理!(与邻国用英语谈话真是太糟糕了!)
奥运会时,胡锦涛对一位韩国运动员讲了句韩国话,使得他们高兴了很久;
用他们的语言,才能建立国民外交,建立友好关系;
如今中国与邻国用第三者语言/英语交谈,这是天大的笑话!
看起来,中国现在急需西班牙和葡萄牙语人才...
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
谢谢。你也是。
晚安
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Clinton, you got me back to the blog. You are the man.

You seems to believe in China-Russia conflict. Keep digging...
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
Another scenario of thinking could be:

China and India are neighboring so closely and therefore so easily for 擦枪走火 to induce the war。
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小小边界摩擦也许有,但不会演变为全面冲突。特别是印度没这个胆量。

中印隔着喜马拉雅山,山的两侧,一个荒芜人烟,兔子不拉屎;一个人满为患,过两年挤得人都只能单脚站立,没有太大的价值。除非哪天在珠峰钻探出了油什么的。
中俄就不一样了,西伯利亚有着中国生存和发展不可或缺的资源,何况本来就是中国的,理应回归中国。可这老毛子是个不讲理的蛮子,不来点真刀真枪,土地是回不来的。日本北方四岛就是一个例子。日本人唧唧歪歪的和俄国人要了几十年,磕头下跪,威逼利诱招术全用遍,俄国人就是把岛荒着,也不还给他。
所以结论是,中俄20年内必有一战。海外父老兄弟姐妹们,有钱的出钱,有力的出力,到时候您就往外掏吧。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复Wiserman的评论:

Enjoyable night. Keep in touch. Good night.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

I did the follow for the book.

高端人才资源面临严峻挑战

国际著名咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)2006年公布的一份报告显示,由于中国经过良好职业训练的大学毕业生十分短缺,其经济增长可能因此受阻,工业领域的更新换代也可能停滞不前,中国大学毕业生缺乏实际应用技巧以及糟糕的非实用英语水平,使其在发展诸如外包等以服务为基础的信息科技方面,远远落后于印度。

由于缺少合格的人力资源,那些已进入中国的跨国企业在招聘高标准的雇员方面,也将会遭遇到更多的不顺,中国仅有10%的大学毕业生具有在某一家外国公司工作的技能,麦肯锡强调指出,许多中国大学生所接受的教育类型,都无法给他们提供实用的和团队工作的技巧,而这种技巧正是全球化公司不可缺少的。

传统的大学教育只注重理论教育、书本教育、基于事实教育和教与学的方法,英语教学也是纸上谈兵,不适当地强调对话训练,尽管中国每年“诞生”60万名新工程师,比美国多出9倍,但仅有1.6万拥有在外国公司工作的实用能力和语言能力。

麦肯锡发出的警讯,将不断地对中国未来几十年的可持续发展敲响警钟,伴随中国政府大力推动海内外优秀人才回国效力的阳光政策和激励措施,实施国际化高端人才战略的行动在全球危机中举足轻重,迫在眉睫。
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 引:"...印度,具有一切与中国一战的动机和理由。...中印必有一战,不是明天,便是后天,或是不远的将来"
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有再考虑的余地.
另有看法.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Precisely right.
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
不过说到底,多数流行作家挣地还是小钱。比比那些御用经济学家算什么?听说很多这样的人在公司董事会中任职,光是股票期权,钱就多得数不过来,吃稿费的人是无法比的。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

When America is declining, China do the same, even worse. By the way, I am very pro-China, unequivocally, but never hold from being critical of their challenges, nevertheless.

Education is one of the worst nightmares in China. I have been teaching in China's top universities, so I can tell that the quality is well beyond deterioration. To get into Beida and Qinghua, as long as you have money, you can by giving a unique way. Very popular there. Professors are busy making money that not many focus on teaching and researching.

To catch up with the high-end on the global value chain, you need the quality massively.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Another scenario of thinking could be:

China and India are neighboring so closely and therefore so easily for 擦枪走火 to induce the war.

The danger is that, both nuclear powers are not as well-prepared for the war as US usually goes. In a sense, US could prepare for years to start a "Shock and owe" before a full assault, while China and India might just do it on the spur of inspiration, by simply pushing a button.

We know the history, that Chairman Mao gave the order to cross the 鸭怒江 and assist the Korean War, everything just follow through, even airplanes with no experienced pilots, say 100 hours flight training.

That is the most dangerous part to mull over.
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
American is in control of the essence to design (IP) and marketing at high-end, while Chinese is in manufacturing and processing at low-end. This paradigm is very hard to change, unless China has reached to the level where it can pave the way for its design and manufacturing to prevail as a while line without orders from US. You can image how hard it is.
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我不这么认为。现在虽然中国产品多数处于低端,但很快就会变了。看看中国没年6百万的大学毕业生,而美国只有不到4百万(还包括了很多学理工的外国学生),美国的衰落只是时间问题。十年也许就能看到。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:

Sorry, a mistake, should be "I am doing the book not for the money!"
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

是真实战争,不是冷战!

I love this sharp expression in contrast.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Thanks. I was told that only the hottest book is profitable, namely, 98% books is losing money. However, after-book effect works. For example, invited speeches, media interviews, etc. indeed make very handsome money.

I am doing book for the money, believe or not. I am interested in driving my ideas to the public then impact the world. Not young, but still ambitious.

I am talking about how to taking advantage of market crisis to bottom-fish the Wall Street, for instance, to bottom fish Goldman Sachs when it drops from 248 to 47 less than a year. I did this ideas as recorded, rather than 马后炮 or "cannon after horse".So the book is about real action, about the only way for China to be streamlined with US to eventually avoid the conflict.

The sense is that, when you tie together in the best interests to each sides, it is hard to break.
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
我相信,只要有决心,天下无难事.
若是,自己就认了,那就没救了.
1830???年美国门罗(MONROE)总统就是用闭关自守的政策,把美国立下基业的.
很多人在怀疑,到底邓小平的"无计划"大开放,是利是害?
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复ewatcher的评论:
With the collapse of the Soviet empire, the US has shifted its sight on its next target, China. The ultimate goal of the US towards China is no different than the one towards the Soviets, which is to destroy China so as to maintain its eternal supremacy and dominance in the world. On the other hand, there is absolutely no basis for making a similar argument in the India-China scenario. India, like Japan, is nothing more than a pawn or a proxy at the disposal of the USA to be used against China.
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你所说的这一切,仅见于某些学者的论述,是一种理论而已。不知是否有美国官方的文件证明?美国总统仅是一个在位为期四年的政客,怀疑他们是否能认真的考虑任何超过四年的长远计划。而且我们讨论的是真实战争,不是冷战。现在西方可能也明白,用不流血的办法是无法搞垮中国的。热战的成本,美国也无法承担。伊拉克这么弱的国家都搞不定,其它也就可想而知。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复Wiserman的评论:

Chinese are always doing this kind of foolish things, inconsistent inside and outside. Win is win, why retreat after win? You think you did a right thing to show to the world how generous and mighty, but no one go with it.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

The question is that, if no more readers, who will know you? where the impact to come from.

Honestly, I am advised to open a blog online that I did just a few weeks ago in order to coop with book selling. Everything is pertinent to market to sell. If you don't do it, no matter how good you are, you are deem to lose money. When that happens, it is a losing game.
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 礼尚往来也是重要的;中国人喜用怀柔政策,打胜印度后,又多撤回20公里,当然印度就占过去了(我若是印度,我也会向前冲20KM).自讨苦吃.后人见(悲苦的)笑.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复Wiserman的评论:

全球化产业链的分工一旦定型,几乎很难改变.

American is in control of the essence to design (IP) and marketing at high-end, while Chinese is in manufacturing and processing at low-end. This paradigm is very hard to change, unless China has reached to the level where it can pave the way for its design and manufacturing to prevail as a while line without orders from US. You can image how hard it is.

There is one thing China can do better than anyone else, as it starts right now to meet the domestic demand by investing 4 trillion RMB inside China.It can design, assemble, market, distribute, whatever it wants. Beyond that, it is different story.
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 总之,"假设"要从全方位看! 然后,随机应变!
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 Not only the Chinese and the Americans see Globalization differently, but also its impact to both societies are at totally different levels.
[中美对全球化的看法决然不同,更有甚者,它对两个社会所产生的影响有天大的差别!]
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 1) In reality, the cold war will NEVER disappear from the human society.
The fundamental thinking of the Western nations will not change over night. There is a basic belief that separate the Chinese and the Western ideologies. In short, the Chinese(India also can) can co-exist with different cultures, yet the Westerns are very self-righteous.
[东西的基本想法根本不同,中国的文化是包容的,西方是非常排斥异己的.不能说苏联被斗倒了/新世纪来了,西方的思想一下子就改过来了,这是不可能的!]

2) per:"...Globalization has surfaced to the level where US and China have gradually become inseparable commercial partnership, where Americans is happily to design and consume while China is equally excited to manufacture and deliver. "
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The Chinese and the Americans see Globalization different!
Please try to define it precisely for both!
This is the concept from a Harvard professor's Chiamerica idea. Do you think it will be a fair thing for China keeps on providing the low cost products to the Americans to spend? It will not last long in this way. Not only because it is not equal, but also China just can not afford doing this way for a long time!
[近来哈佛教授说出中美国观念,就是:中国一直供应廉价物品给美国人消费,这平等吗? 中国都快成大垃圾桶了!中国能够一直这样继续下去吗? 明显的不可能!
很多教授学者实在缺少实际生活经验,说些不着边际的话,大问题是中国不少的领导人,还会听这些人的话.莫名其妙呀!]
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 我期待阅读你的剑指华尔街,到时我定以一个普通读者的眼光发表评论。
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
回复克里斯托夫的评论:
好主意,大家经常的讨论辩论也能为诸位在美国枯燥的生活增加点活力和色彩。

谢谢你推荐的年轻作家郭敬明,是个天才。一定要找找他的作品看看。

学术作品读者少,照样能家喻户晓。爱因斯坦曾经写信给友人抱怨说,全世界只有不到一打的人理解相对论。阳春白雪,魅力更长久。

我期待阅读你的,到时我定以一个普通读者的眼光发表评论。

也谢谢你的EMAIL地址和网页连接,有时间联系。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复ewatcher的评论:

Respectively, I am focusing on Sino-US relations from non expert view of point, as to the war potential between two powers.

you might neglect the fact the world has been changed since the cold war. Back to the old days, no one was capable then of predicting what took to be reshaped to what would be today. Particularly in the recent days, the whole landscape has been redrawn to the very different one and so the intellectuals' brains need to be rewashed in order to adapt to the new challenging environment.

I probably would go with you if it were right after the breakdown of the Soviet Union to 15 republics. At that time, the entire world was stilled over clouded by the misguidance of concept of the "cold war forever", so overwhelm and so real.

There is no doubt that the US was then desperately seeking to replace enemy target in efforts to strengthen and legitimize its military muscle and weaponry expansion. China was ideal drawn to the map considering its then-ambitious different communist ideology and strong regime, history conflicts (the presumed winner to both Korean War and Vietnam War against US and its allies), as well as its overcapacity of military resources and emerging power in Asia.

Worth a note, I am not a guru of military science and international relations, but simply a consulting business professor and venture capitalist in Silicon Valley.

To a surprise not only to the world, but to the US and China as well, the table is starting to turn 180 degrees when it entered to the new century that the old thinking of perfect confrontation target between US (active to take) and China (passive to accept) is hard to maintain and therefore no longer workable. Globalization has surfaced to the level where US and China have gradually become inseparable commercial partnership, where Americans is happily to design and consume while China is equally excited to manufacture and deliver. Further,real economy has stepped into virtual financial economy where China also become a creditor to the currency demand of American.

When you trace back to the old days, there is neither such thing as globalization, nor as the transformation of easy-to-break then to hard-to-bend now in terms of relationship. The politics is plain talk and empty-handed and so is the military if without solid economic support as cornerstone.

A No.1 (1 trillion $) debtor of US owning to China, I could not image how US comes up with any excuse to wage a war by excusing and off-setting the entire debt with China. For any bloody war with China, you need the strongest "why" to mobilize the people, simply because it is the people who are going to wound and die for you. Where is that? I can't see it at all.

There is great deal of challenges facing two super powers. The American's ability to resolve these challenges won't choose an only to wage a war, but rather, to be deeply affected by the policies pursued by China too, which is a home to one of fourth of the earth's population. Beyond Asia, the role China chooses to play in preventing or abetting the spread of weapons of mass destruction, combating or ignoring international crime, protecting or degrading the environment, tearing the or building up trade barriers, managing the financial institutions or green-lighting the unlimited application of derivatives levers, or abusing human rights will help shape the new relationship between US and China in the next century.

Old thinking for unstoppable war lies in the fact that some Americans believe China's interests and US's inexorably are in conflict that they should work to contain China before it becomes stronger. But in isolating China, they would only encourage China to turn inward and to act in opposition to US's interest and values.

That is how the tide was changing with the passage for time accompanied by globalization.Americans are smart enough not to challenge a already grow-up of power and instead, to choose a pragmatic and principled course: expanding areas to cooperation with China while dealing directly with their difference. It works. It works well.

A quick summary, I would not agree with you equally that the US is permanently targeting China as an enemy, and if any, that is only to the extreme thinking with eyes blinded.

Thanks for your views.
ewatcher 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
I appreciate your response. However, I do not share your perspective at all.

I think we can all agree that rivalry between great powers is a given, but it does not mean it will play out in all-out wars, which was amply demonstrated by the US and the Soviet Union during the 40 plus years of Cold War until 1989. But the Cold War ended with the demise of the Soviet Union. How? The answer is obvious. The US destroyed the Soviet Union without starting a hot war. The US will now try to do the same to the Chinese.

With the collapse of the Soviet empire, the US has shifted its sight on its next target, China. The ultimate goal of the US towards China is no different than the one towards the Soviets, which is to destroy China so as to maintain its eternal supremacy and dominance in the world. On the other hand, there is absolutely no basis for making a similar argument in the India-China scenario. India, like Japan, is nothing more than a pawn or a proxy at the disposal of the USA to be used against China.

This is where I think you are very misguided.

Thanks for your response.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

I have a more detailed blog in China.

http://blog.ifeng.com/index.php?action=home&uid=2050792
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

挺好的, 英中交替也是海外学人的风格。咱们可逐步形成一个自由的讨论时政, 经济, 军事, 社会和其他社会热点的论坛, 茶余饭后闲谈或深究, 激烈辩论,会非常有趣。我的博客中有我的简历。

我的邮箱: chris_jing@yahoo.com
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
喜欢你的写作风格--严肃,认真,辩论能够扣住要点。

不同的作家写作风格不一样。俺喜欢一句格言"上帝喜欢简单."(忘了是不是牛顿说的)。所以发帖时也力求简单。

希望今后能够和你多多辩论探讨,越激烈越好。不过我用中文,你用英文,好象对你有点不公平啊。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Can't agree with you more than I have... rational thought and exploration always assemble great friends together and allow for upgrading and improving. You may find my writing different from others, since I intentionally tailor myself to insulate from academic style, instead, to write poetic and cultural, and to turn under-to-understand to easy-to-read, even for very serious politics and wars. You will see next couple of months.

I "arrogantly" classify it as "Wall Street Literature".

I found one phenomena amazing when it comes to writing. In China, the popularity of a lot of young writers, most of them around 20-30s, is much influential than older generation writers. For example, 郭敬明, just 24, writing mostly fiction or novels, is a quick writer and sell his book for averaging 500K to 5M copies. You guess, how many copies for those academic and technical, 2000, 5000, 10K is a given.

Why? You have to turn complex to simple if you wish to more readers to be attracted to your landscape.
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
呵呵,很喜欢和你理性探讨,这对双方深入的参考都有益。
祝你中国旅途愉快。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复Wiserman的评论:

Hi Wiserman, don't read you for a while. I have time now to put something in ink before dispatching for China on 5/19 through July. Means will be slow coming out with something valuable during that period. Look forward to your insightful views always.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Thanks for your argument. Through heated debates, cloudy sky can be cleared to certain degrees. I enjoy being pushed back and forth in order to improve myself for issues critical to China, US and the world as well. You are great!
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
Bill Gate once said, which I remember, Microsoft is living on the crisis everyday. It means one day delay of the products delivery, its market share could be taken away from peers. Just give a thinking.
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做为一个企业家,提醒自己的下属保持危机意识是一种企业管理手法。就好象幼儿园的阿姨吓唬小朋友,如果不听话,大灰狼就要把你抓走一样。
从微软官司的实际所为来看,他的骄傲自大是有目共睹的。Vista,window me这么烂的产品都敢推出到市场,如果不是他所处的垄断地位和消费者的容忍,早就该完蛋了。
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As for Russian's occupation of China's large territories, I am curious about why Chinese government is not as showing strongly to Russians as to Indians. There should be something behind. You go figure out.
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中国领导现在是不提俄国对中国的侵略,那是因为现在中国没实力,说了白说,还给自己惹麻烦。请相信,如果中国有一天大声地说出来了,那就是收复失地的日子。
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
Russia and China still belongs to the brotherhood circle. Ideologically, they still believe, by large measurement, in the same of socialist ideas and essences. Russia's challenger is not Chinese but US, and most importantly, Russians are hateful and very reminiscent of US's betrayal after Gorbachev's overnight "Sky Change". They hate US more than anyone else.
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世界上没有永远的朋友,也没有永远的敌人。在国家关系上更是如此。当年中越两国是同志加兄弟,共同对付美国可以说是唇齿相依的战友。美国撤出越南后不到十年,战友变仇敌,大打出手。而这一切的发生之前,谁能想得到呢?其实这一切也并非没有前兆。越南的刊物早就宣扬他们的祖先如何抗击汉朝的入侵,只是专家学者和领导阶层不愿意看到这些。

中俄两国的利益冲突早晚要爆发,现在的友好并无深厚的历史基础。至于说中国人喜欢俄国的歌曲舞蹈等,那也是50,60年代的事了,而70年代中苏冲突时,这个因素也没起到正面的减缓作用。
更别提现在的中国青年喜欢的是欧美文化。

中印见存在达赖和其它一些观念的冲突,但自从十字军远征之后,世界上重大的冲突没有一次是因为意识形态不同所引起的,而全部是国家利益冲突引起的。
Wiserman 回复 悄悄话 1) 美国,是一个生活在严重“危机意识”阴霾下的警醒民族,整天怀疑,表面装的很漂亮.
2) 印度和美国在比他人强大时,不如意,都必然会先动手修理别人.这是英国格式.他们都捡弱小的打...
3) 印度人好像没有那么"恨"中国人.中印说不准还可以加强合作.不见得是可靠的伙伴.
中国如何能与印度巴基斯坦同时做友好?
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Being a veteran Silicon based venture capitalist, I understand how crisis works its way through an enterprise's development process from startup, funding, marketing, IPO, continuing... Crisis is embedded in every phase of its process. If you miss one quarter, you will perhaps miss the whole and you will thereby get punished perhaps the whole year or longer. Repercussion could be substantial. That is how crisis given in technology field.

Bill Gate once said, which I remember, Microsoft is living on the crisis everyday. It means one day delay of the products delivery, its market share could be taken away from peers. Just give a thinking.

As for Russian's occupation of China's large territories, I am curious about why Chinese government is not as showing strongly to Russians as to Indians. There should be something behind. You go figure out.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:

Russia and China still belongs to the brotherhood circle. Ideologically, they still believe, by large measurement, in the same of socialist ideas and essences. Russia's challenger is not Chinese but US, and most importantly, Russians are hateful and very reminiscent of US's betrayal after Gorbachev's overnight "Sky Change". They hate US more than anyone else.

Historically and culturally, Russian and Chinese are fond of each other, started from Red Army era, through National Party and Communist Party phases. You can easily see, how many Chinese seniors leaders and young people are trained and culitivated in Russia, the former Soviet Union, the past, now and years to come.

Yes, Russia and China engaged a lot of small-scale sporadic bordering conflicts, absolutely "No"wars, but only at certain special and sensitive points of time, when both countries went crazy against each other. However, when the wind blown out, quickly, it was recovery right after.

Not to say, there is no huge obstacle in front of both countries, such issues as Tibet.

Seems to me, India will never give up Dala and his independent-minded followers.

I went to Moscow University as consulting professor twice and I know Russians are basically highly appreciative and admiring of Chinese history and culture, particularly, the modernization of today's China.

Vice versa, Chinese enjoy Russia's culture, music, dance,too.

That is also never the case of C with I.
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复ewatcher的评论:

Really respect your views toward who would be the most right rivals to China and appreciate for your time given to the argument. Here is my quick feedback as to why I pull my trigger to shot China-India issue instead of US-China.

Briefly, a potential war between US and China, as derived from historical record, say Wars in Korean Peninsula War and Viet Nam with Chinese "heavy involvement" against US, seems inevitable in open arguments for decades. That is a out-of-date thinking.

As history turns to the new page in 21th century, there are only two superpowers still alive on the planet, one is truly paramount superpower, US, while the other an emerging disputable superpower, China. Leaders of both powers come together with new thinking encroaching new actions. Survival is the first to consider, in as sense economic ties are rightly positioned and predominant over anything else, so that basically, China sell and US buy to keep going of the world by large. As economy draws them together, and consequently, either side can't afford to breaking out without serious price paying. Equally and more or less, both powers maintains the nuclear arsenals enough to destroy either sides along with the world, without a doubt. When such close ties and serious threats is weighed in balance, neither US nor China is willing to let go ever-growing goodwill and kill the best for worst, in efforts to engage in something beyond their best interest.

I believe in the geographically factor, simply because most major wars, whatever happened in history, were stemmed from bordering conflicts. Neighboring countries, regions and tribes are prone and have countless reasons to fight for the sake of religion beliefs, territories, immigrant flows, dissident protection, etc.

All wars were so started as of bordering conflicts, Koren War, India-China War, Iraq-Iran War, Iraq War (actually of Iraq's invasion into bordering Kuwait), China-Viet Nam War, are all such, not to mention of as far the early 20th century as the first and the second World Wars broke out. Almost all major wars were initiated from bordering conflicts.

China and India are bordered for too long to reconcile, and both countries has virtually no close economic ties strong enough to support each's growth and stability. Rather than, there existed too many uncertain factors to wage a war, big or small, say, religion, Tibet issue, nuclear pile-up, Pakistan touching point, population overflow...

Indians are not compatible with Chinese culturally, if not to hate, while not really true the other side, Chinese toward Indians. China has no strong reason to be provocative against India when it focuses entirely on sustaining its high economic growth. China is already surrounded by so many challenging countries, for example, Japan, even Russia, Viet Nam, Philippine, Indonesia, etc.

However, that is not the case of China with India. India's only enemy is China. In their mind, Pakistan is part of China so that anything with P is with C.
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 回复克里斯托夫的评论:
危机本身是危机意识的展示? 这句话含义模糊,what is your point?
从历史上看,俄国侵占了我大片疆土,中俄冲突不可调和,20年之内必有一战。
ewatcher 回复 悄悄话 India lost a war to China in 1962, but ended up winning a huge tract of the most fertile land in Southern Tibet. India was indisputably the true winner of the war. As a winner, Indians would certainly want to make sure that they get to keep possession of what they have gained. On the other hand, China would naturally look for ways to regain its lost territories, which is entirely justified as China is regaining its world power status. Indians' recent noisy sabre-rattling about another war within the next 10 years is nothing but a reflection of its nervousness and its inferiority complex. In another word, India is becoming afraid that one day China wants to take its land back.

India is not a true threat to China, simply because it is not a power to be reckoned with in the new century. The United States, on the other hand, is the source of all China's international problems, such as with the Indians and the Japanese, not to mention small frictions with countries around the South China Sea, such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

The real rival for and threat to China, both geo-politically and strategically in the 21st century, is none other than the USA, not India. I don't think the author of the article got it right.
笑什么笑 回复 悄悄话 中国的领导人警醒,中国就警醒。并不一定是刀架到脖子上才警醒。要不然你如何解释汉武帝的作为?还是浅。
kakoku 回复 悄悄话 共产党最怕死了,战争了,国家经济不能发展了,他们想贪污也贪不到钱了。这几年经济大发展,虽然百姓乐见国家富有,可是当官的更加高兴。所以,我觉得改革开放了,国家虽然富有了,但战斗力降低了。
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复clinton-2007的评论:
Don't you think the crisis itself is a demonstration of crisis consciousness?
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 "美国,是一个生活在严重“危机意识”阴霾下的警醒民族,似乎每一天都在你死我活的刀尖口迎送着世界末日,以此凝聚举国上下朝野各派的民心共识、激发众志成城励精图治的战斗氛围。"
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别逗了。如果是警醒民族,怎么会发生金融危机?如果举国上下朝野各派民心共识,怎么伊拉克问题上摇摆不定?
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 回复donotlike的评论:

If you go human history deeper, war seems easily being triggered if several irrational powers hand in together and become loose canon in face of the unavoidable crisis, while the same can be avoided when the otherwise. India likes to go tough with Pakistan decisively but it can't, unfortunately, China is the key behind. I am here talking about the possibility, the sense and the warning. Thanks.
pladxhy 回复 悄悄话 战胜不了的敌人就是朋友----中印无战事。

更别说都是有核国家,印度现在连巴基斯坦都不敢动,何谈与中国施以颜色?!
donotlike 回复 悄悄话 Power talks. India has been used by the west to fight with China for a decade. None of them gets what they wanted. If you are powerful enough, it doesn't matter who is your alliance with whom, everyone wants to be your friend, either voluntarily or forcefully.
大陆百姓 回复 悄悄话 同意楼下山谷风暴兄,东方文明要想压倒西方文明,首先要创造出一套比西方民主,人权更高的东方"普世价值"
clinton-2007 回复 悄悄话 中美不可能打起来---双方有足够的理智,否则两败俱伤。
中印不会打起来---印度没那胆量和实力,除非中国先动手。
sheep123 回复 悄悄话 http://www.youyardsale.com
克里斯托夫 回复 悄悄话 危机意识,有备无患,朋友来了有美酒,豺狼来了有猎枪.

山谷风暴 回复 悄悄话 印度极可能成为美国用来遏制中国的筹码。也就是 美+印 vs 中,来代替 30 年前 美+中 vs 苏 及后来的 美+日 vs 中。中国在全世界特别是南亚加强和其它小国的合作同时,更应该设法把印度纳入和中国共同发展的轨道。比邻之国,即意味着冲突的可能性大增,也意味着合作的现实性很大。中国和印度的关系,将决定着这两个发展中国家最后能否成功实现自身的崛起。中国在和印度的竞争中有许多先行权,应该仔细选择自身需要的产业,让印度着重发展其它产业。

中国对美国要斗智。美国是遏制中国的总后台。但美中的直接大冲突不符合双方利益。美国挑拨煽动的行为不会停止。中国真正的赶超美国,不仅是经济总量的赶超,更应该在制度上进行赶超。要在纠错能力上强于美国。没有完美的制度,但有不断完善的方式。


山哥 回复 悄悄话 中国如何对印备战?
首要一点就是需要作出国防战略调整。变武力收台为武力制独,真正着眼于和平统
一,逐步减少对台军事部署。一批中短程导弹可以考虑调防西南部和青藏新疆地区。
让印军的一线陆空军设施置于我军的远程大炮和导弹的火力控制之下。
加紧在西南西北部署更多武装直升机部队和先进空军部队。加强对印空降军部队部
署。加紧山地战演练。开发适合山地战的新型轻型坦克。
对印度可能的核攻击应该有所警惕。
加强与巴基斯坦的军事联盟。特别是让巴拥有比较先进的坦克部队,维持对印度的
军事压力。
尽快建立印度洋舰队。把中国海军的核潜艇,航空母舰的主力战舰早日开进印度洋,
确保中国海上运输的生命线安全,同时在中印可能的战争时期威摄印度的西海岸线,
让它首尾不能相顾。
如果印度敢于挑起二次中印战争,中国应该把握机遇,消灭印军有生力量,借机收
复藏南国土,铲除西藏藏独在印基地。
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