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(2006-07-12 20:17:11)
1.bigmkttrend:dow/sp.naz:90%stockswillfollowthebigmktupordown
2.leadingstocks:gapup/hotstocks
3;100%margin
4.target:30-100%inarun
5.timing:2-4weeks-3months
6:TA(rsi,macd,10/20/50/100/200emas,daily/weeklycharts,top/bottmreversal)
7,mktsentiment:vix/vxo/vxn(>20%above10ema,bottom);bullish-bearishration(0orminus),put/call(21day,nearorabove.70;5dayabove1.1)
8:toptobottom:atl...[阅读全文]
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(2006-06-10 20:00:23)

OverthepastfewweekstherehasbeenagraduallyincreaseinpessimismamonginvestorsasthePuttoCallRatiohasbeenwellabovethe1.0levelwhiletheVolatilityIndex(VIX)hasrisensubstantiallyaswell.Oneindicatorthathasbeenusefulinsignalingameaningfulbottomduringthepastseveralyearshasbeenthe%differencebetweentheBullishandBearishInvestmentAdvisors.Inthepastwhenthe%ofBearishInvestmentAdvisorshasequaledorexceededthe%ofBulli...[阅读全文]
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(2006-06-10 19:58:33)

Themajoraverageshavebeeninacorrectionduringthepastfiveweeks.TheDowhasdroppedaround900pointsor7.8%sincepeakinginearlyMayandfailedtoholdsupportatits40WeeklyEMA(blueline)thisweek.IftheDowremainsundermoresellingpressurethenextareaofsupportappearstobeatits50%RetracementLevel(calculatedfromtheOctober2004lowtoitsmostrecenthigh)near10700.The10700levelisalsowheretheDowfoundsupportatinthelatepartof2005intot...[阅读全文]
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(2006-05-07 04:41:35)
5/18.badtradingbetween5/8-5/16.nazdropped8daysinarowfrom2350-2165,dowdroppedfrom11650to10650goodplay:soldallbeforefedannouncementandwhenrsiofdowreached80bad:stilllosealottocatchfallingknife.lesson:1.nobuybeforeindex'srsireach20,2.nobuybeforeyouseeafinalhourreversal3.usesmallammount,notrading,orsellshort4.nomatterhowhotitis,whenmediareportiteveryday,itisnearthetop.oil72in9/05,gold735in5/06.thebestt...[阅读全文]
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(2006-04-09 06:11:07)
Shorttermtop(1-4weeks):1.rsiofindexsuchasnaz,dow,spyreacharound802.macdnearprevioushigh3.k%/d%near904.williamr%05.vixnear11/vxonear10/vxnnear146.put/call(5dayema)nearorbelow0.6.dailyput/callbelow0.67.moststockshadnicegain,largardstocksbecomemktleadertimetotakeprofitandshort.usuallywhenrsiofdowreachedabove80,itwilldropbacktoits50emainnext1-4weeks.samethinghappenedtonazmanytimes(sometimesdroppedtors...[阅读全文]
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MKTSentiment(Autoupdate)


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(2006-03-28 14:56:00)
a.男人可怜啊!1.事业是党的,成绩是领导的,荣誉是亲友的,收入是老婆的,财产是儿女的,奖金是小姐的,只有缺点和错误是自己的。2.新唯物论:没老公没情人=废物;有老公没情人=植物;没老公有情人=动物;一个老公一个情人=人物;一个老公几个情人=宠物;分不清老公情人=怪物。3.现代男人的一天:上班工作是思来想去,下班电话是约来约去,晚上吃饭是眉来眼去,饭[阅读全文]
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原物料多头总司令罗杰斯的投资心法
商品多头市场至少有十年
张聪杰
原物料行情再度蠢动,究竟是另一波多头的开端,或只是迴光返照?本文将摘要多头总司令罗杰斯过去对于原物料的一些重点看法,相信将对目前行情的研判有所助益。
  近期国际原物料多头势力又有蠢动迹象,多项具指标性的商品价格再度攀升,甚至创下历史新高,前一波原物料行情回档整[阅读全文]
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1,记住该记住的,忘记该忘记的。改变能改变的,接受不能改变的。2,能冲刷一切的除了眼泪,就是时间,以时间来推移感情,时间越长,冲突越淡,仿佛不断稀释的茶。3,怨言是上天得至人类最大的供物,也是人类祷告中最真诚的部分。4,智慧的代价是矛盾。这是人生对人生观开的玩笑。5,世上的姑娘总以为自己是骄傲的公主(除了少数极丑和少数极聪明的姑娘[阅读全文]
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