今早Plosser访谈时先是提到2016年底利率该升到3％，美股期指闻声大涨。如果是那样，应该是明年下半年加息。股市开盘不到10分钟，他澄清：应该2015年底利率升到3％，2016年底到4％。这样一来，即使明年春天开始升息，从0到3％，也要升得很急，必须有0.5%一次的加息幅度。或者今年冬天开始行动。需要指出他是联储里的鹰派人物。折衷地看，应该是明年春天加息，明年年底到2.5%，2016年底4％。

Fed's Plosser sees end-2016 funds rate at 4%, not 3%


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, on Tuesday clarified his interest rate forecast, saying he sees the federal funds rate at 4% at the end of 2016. Earlier in an interview on CNBC, Plosser said he projected the funds rate at 3% at the end of 2016. But CNBC said that Plosser contacted the network after the interview to amend his forecast. He said he sees the funds rate at 3% at the end of 2015, instead of his earlier comment of "two-something," CNBC said. Plosser is a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-plosser-sees-end-2016-funds-rate-at-4-not-3-2014-03-25?link=MW_latest_news