(See pictures of the making of modern China.)
[谷歌翻译]
60年前，毛泽东站在了天安门城楼之上宣布人山人海，在他高调湖南方言，是人民共和国的成立和中国的“人民已经站起来了！”目前的特点是充满自豪和希望。共产党人的胜利，打败了国民党政权，经历了日本侵略的恶性冲击和推翻了对中国领土的外国侵略的世纪。此外，毛泽东和共产党（中共）上台后没有重大的外部支持-他们基本上是一个土生土长的革命
Mao brought a vision for China that has resonated from the 19th century Qing dynasty reformers to this day: to regain China's fu qiang (wealth and power), dignity, international respect and territorial integrity. In this regard, Mao and the CCP positioned themselves squarely with a deep yearning among Chinese — thus earning their loyalty and the party's legitimacy. His successors have not wavered from this singular vision and mission. (Read "Where China Goes Next.")
毛泽东为中国带来了具有远见从19清代改革者这一天世纪共鸣：恢复中国的傅强（财富和权力），尊严，国际尊严和领土完整。在这方面，毛泽东和中共正视自己的定位与中国之间极其渴望-从而赢得他们的忠诚和党的合法性。他的继任者并没有动摇这一独特的理念和使命。
Tragically, Mao's belief in restoring China's greatness and achieving modernity was inextricably intertwined with his ideological desire to transform China into a socialist and revolutionary society. Mao's social engineering continually convulsed China in unrelenting political campaigns. These movements disrupted productivity and caused horrific loss of life. Yet, despite the chaos, the People's Republic embarked on industrialization and stood up. By many measures, 60 years on, China has achieved significant progress toward becoming a major and global power. Mao may recognize it, but he would not be wholly happy with it.
As the People's Republic of China commemorates its 60th anniversary, it seemingly has much to celebrate. China is the world's most populous and industrious nation, is the world's third largest economy and trading nation, has become a global innovator in science and technology, and is building a world-class university system. It has an increasingly modern military and commands diplomatic respect. It is at peace with its neighbors and all major powers. Its hybrid model of quasi-state capitalism and semidemocratic authoritarianism — sometimes dubbed the "Beijing Consensus" — has attracted attention across the developing world.
This growing soft power of China was strengthened by the 2008 Olympics extravaganza, and the Shanghai Expo next year will similarly dazzle. The 60th anniversary celebration in Beijing on Oct. 1 will impress, if not frighten, the world with an arresting display of military hardware and goose-stepping soldiers. Less visible is the fact that China is the first major economy to recover from the global recession and, indeed, is leading the world out of it. (Read "Mission Accomplished. Now What?")
可悲的是，毛泽东的信仰，在恢复中国的伟大和实现现代化是交织在一起的愿望，他的思想转变为社会主义和革命社会的中国。毛泽东的社会工程，在不断震撼中国不屈不挠的政治运动。这些运动的破坏生产力，造成可怕的生命损失。然而，尽管混乱，中华人民共和国开始对工业化和站了起来。通过多种措施，60年来，中国取得了朝着成为一个主要的和全球的能力有了显着的进展。毛可能承认，但他不会完全满意的。
作为人民共和国的中国纪念其成立60周年之际，似乎有许多值得庆祝。中国是世界上人口最多和勤劳的民族，是世界第三大经济体和贸易国，已成为全球科技创新，是建设世界一流大学的系统。它有一个日益现代化的军事和外交方面的命令。正是在与邻国和各大国的和平。它的混合模式的准国家资本主义和semidemocratic权威-有时被称为“北京共识” -已引起整个发展中世界的关注。
这种不断增长的中国软实力得到了加强2008年奥运会特备节目，以及上海世博会明年将同样耀眼。北京的60周年庆祝10月1日将留下深刻印象，如果不是吓唬，与的军事硬件和鹅逮捕显示加强士兵的世界。不太明显的事实是，中国是第一个主要经济体从全球经济衰退中恢复，而事实上，是利用它领先世界。
China is on a roll, particularly when viewed over time. Visiting or living in China every year over the past three decades, I have had the personal opportunity to witness dramatic transformations. When I first went to China in 1979, vestiges of the Cultural Revolution were still evident: revolutionary slogans painted on walls and pockmarks on university buildings from bullets and howitzer shells shot by dueling Red Guards. Camouflaged, but just as evident, were the personal scars borne by intellectuals and officials whom I met at the time. I heard stories of beatings and humiliations, confiscations of personal possessions and loss of living quarters, and forced hard labor.
I then witnessed the dramatic blossoming of personal freedoms and economic growth in the 1980s, punctuated by periodic countercampaigns launched by neo-Maoists in the leadership. One could literally feel and see Chinese society come alive after its long Maoist trauma, only to have people quickly recoil when the conservatives in the leadership reasserted themselves. This seesaw pattern persisted throughout the decade, culminating in the dramatic Tiananmen demonstrations and their suppression in June 1989.
In the early 1990s, I again experienced China as a society traumatized, this time by the aftermath of Tiananmen. But by mid-decade Deng Xiaoping had reignited domestic economic reforms and China had normalized its place in the world after its post-Tiananmen isolation. Politics, however, remained frozen and the heavy hand of the state remained evident. Only during the present decade, in the waning years of Jiang Zemin's rule and under Hu Jintao, has the Communist Party begun to experiment with very limited political reforms. My discussions with those party officials involved with crafting the "democratic" reforms makes clear that there are strict boundaries to how far they will proceed.
Thus, when considering the totality of six decades, the record of the PRC is decidedly mixed. While its achievements have been momentous, so are the contrasts and contradictions exposed by those very same achievements. In many sectors, each reform breeds new problems and challenges. China has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go. See pictures of Remembering Tiananmen Square.
中国进入了高速发展，特别是在随着时间的推移观看。访问或居住在中国过去3年每年，我曾亲眼目睹的个人机会的急剧转变。当我第一次在1979年到中国，文革残余仍然明显：在墙壁上画和凹坑从子弹和决斗红卫兵榴弹炮炮弹击落大学建筑革命口号。伪装，但同样显而易见的，是个人伤痕由知识分子承担和官员当时我满足。我听到的殴打和羞辱，对个人财产和住所损失没收的故事，和强迫劳动改造。
然后，我亲眼目睹了个人自由和80年代经济增长的新推出的定期countercampaigns在领导毛派打断，戏剧性的花朵。人们可以从字面上看中国的感觉和社会来后，其长期毛派创伤活着，只是让人们迅速退缩时，在领导的保守派重新抬头。这场拉锯战格局始终坚持十年，终于在天安门示威的戏剧性和在1989年6月镇压。
在1990年代初，我再次经历了一个社会的创伤，这个由天安门之后的时间中国。但是，十年中期邓小平点燃了国内经济改革，中国已经在世界正常化后，后天安门孤立的地位。政治，但是，仍然冻结和国家仍然存在明显的重手。只有在本十年期间，在江泽民的统治下光复初期和胡锦涛，有共产党开始以非常有限的政治改革试验。与各具特色的“民主”改革涉及的党的官员我的讨论表明，我们之间有多远，他们将进行严格的界限。
因此，当考虑到60年，中华人民共和国的记录全部是喜忧参半。虽然它取得了重大的，所以是对比和那些同样的成就，揭露矛盾。在许多部门，每一项改革滋生新的问题和挑战。中国走过了漫长的道路，但它仍然有很长的路要走。
The question for China's leaders was never whether to modernize — but how. During the Maoist era a variety of economic models were experimented with, each of which achieving some modicum of growth. Yet all of them left China lagging far behind the West and East Asia. The costs of some initiatives, like the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960, were catastrophic in human and environmental terms. It was not until Deng and Chen Yun, another reform-minded Politburo member, returned to power in 1978 from internal exile that the economic course was changed. (See pictures of a new look at old Shanghai.)
对中国领导人的问题从来是否现代化-而是如何。在毛泽东时代的经济模式了各种试行，其中每取得了一些少量的增长。然而，这些人都离开中国远远落后于西方和东亚。一些措施的成本，如大跃进58年至60年，是灾难性的，在人类和环境条件。直到邓小平和陈云，另一项改革意识政治局委员，回到1978年的权力内部流放，经济过程中被更改
Three decades later, the world witnesses the extraordinary results. China is now the world's third largest economy, after the U.S. and Japan, and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation. Its GNP is on course to overtake Japan's by 2010 and perhaps that of the U.S. by 2020. (Read "Why the China-U.S. Trade Dispute Is Heating Up.")
30年后，世界目睹了非凡的成果。中国目前是世界第三大经济体，仅次于美国和日本，最近超过美国成为最大出口国德国。它的国民生产总值将超越日本的2010年，也许是美国在2020年。
Much of this dynamic growth has been export-driven, benefiting the low- and medium-technology sectors of the economy. But China is beginning to move up the technological ladder and is becoming more innovative in certain sectors such as electronics and biotechnology. The country has become a manufacturing superpower and the workshop of the world, producing two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes; 60% of cell phones; 55% of DVDs; over half of all digital cameras; 30% of personal computers; and 75% of children's toys, plus a wide variety of other goods.
As a result of its economic boom, China has amassed a staggering $2 trillion in foreign exchange — the largest reserves in the world — and is beginning to invest significant amounts abroad. Today, 37 Chinese multinational corporations rank among FORTUNE's top 500 global companies, up from just six a decade ago, while 450 out of the FORTUNE 500 American companies have production lines and a business presence in China. China has become the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment. To fuel its economic boom, China's voracious and insatiable appetite for raw materials has led it to absorb large amounts of global commodities. China now consumes 16% of global energy resources and is the world's third largest consumer of oil. (Read "Can China Save the World's Economy?")
这种动态的增长大多是出口导向型，有利于低的经济和中等技术领域。但是，中国目前开始转向了科技水平，日益创新，在某些行业，如电子和生物技术。该国已经成为制造业超级大国，世界工厂，生产三分之二的复印机，微波炉和鞋的三分之二，60％的手机，55％的DVD，超过了所有的数码相机的一半，30％的个人电脑;和75％的儿童玩具，加上其他商品种类繁多。
由于其经济繁荣的结果，中国积累了惊人的外汇2万亿-世界上最大的储备-并开始大量投资海外。今天，37个跨国公司中位列财富500强的全球性公司，从只有10年前的6个，而走出的美国财富500强企业450家生产线，在中国业务。中国已成为世界上最大的外国直接投资最多。为了推动它的经济繁荣，中国的贪婪和对原材料贪得无厌的胃口导致它吸收大量的全球商品。中国现在消费的16％，全球能源资源，是世界第三大石油消费国。
But the economic explosion has come at a high environmental cost. China's air and water are among the most polluted on earth and it is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases. The environmental nightmare is hurting public health. Malignant cancer now accounts for 28.5% of deaths while respiratory diseases account for 13.1%, according to the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook. China's growth has been dynamic, but it is also double-edged.
Reinventing a Nation
Mao spent his lifetime trying to transform Chinese society in his utopian, socialist and revolutionary vision. He tried to create a "new socialist man" and an equitable society. His regime succeeded in providing the world's largest population with food to eat, housing and basic services. Social vices were eliminated, literacy was expanded, life expectancy increased and infant mortality decreased. These were no small achievements. But Mao's efforts to impose socialism had a deadening effect on urban and rural society alike, as political movements repeatedly harassed different groups of people.
By the time Deng and his compatriots came to power in 1978, China was traumatized, tired and alienated by 30 years of Maoist experiments and totalitarian controls. Deng's wisdom was to recognize that the state needed to retreat from society and the economy if the creative and entrepreneurial spirits of ordinary Chinese were to be unleashed.
Three decades later, Chinese society has fully blossomed. Chinese today experience a wide variety of personal freedoms in daily life that they and their ancestors had never known. Chinese state and society have also reconnected with the past, emphasizing Confucian and Buddhist values. More than 200 million people have been lifted out of poverty and the members of a growing middle class with disposable income travel abroad, invest in the stock market, dine out and decorate their stylish apartments with furniture purchased from stores like Ikea. Access to education has become far more widespread. Some 21 million students attend university today, while an estimated 300,000 study abroad every year. Approximately 206 million Chinese children attend primary and secondary schools. Basic literacy is almost universal in China today, while it was roughly 20% in 1949. Still, China remains a poor country by global standards: some 207 million people still live below World Bank poverty levels on less than $1.25 per day. See pictures of China's infrastructure boom.
但经济爆炸，会产生很高的环境成本。中国的空气和水都属于地球上最污染，它是温室气体排放国。对环境的噩梦伤害公众健康。恶性肿瘤现在占死亡人数的28.5％，而呼吸系统疾病的占13.1％，根据2008年中国统计年鉴。中国的发展一直充满活力，但它也是双刃剑。
重塑一个国家
毛泽东度过了他一生中，努力改变他的空想的社会主义和革命理想中的社会。他试图建立一个“社会主义新人”和一个公平的社会。他的政权成功地提供世界上最大的人口吃的食物，住房和基本服务。社会丑恶现象被市场淘汰，识字扩大，预期寿命增加，婴儿死亡率下降。这些都是不小的成就。但是毛泽东的努力，对社会主义对城市和农村社会的隔音效果同样，作为政治运动一再骚扰不同的人群。
等到邓小平和他的同胞在1978年上台，中国是创伤，疲倦和30毛派控制实验和极权年疏远。邓小平的智慧是承认，国家需要退出社会和经济中，如果普通的创造性和创业精神将被释放。
30年后，中国社会全面开花。中国今天的经验是在日常生活中的个人自由，种类繁多，他们和他们的祖先从来没有过。中国国家和社会也与过去重新连接，强调儒教和佛教的价值观。超过200万人摆脱了贫困和不断增长的可支配收入的国外旅行的中产阶级的成员，投资于股票市场，外出吃饭，并与来自装饰商店购买宜家家具的时尚公寓。受教育的机会已经变得更加普遍。大约21万学生上大学的今天，尽管估计有30万，每年出国留学。大约2.060亿中国儿童接受小学和中学。基本的识字是在中国几乎是普遍的今天，虽然它在1949年20％左右。尽管如此，中国仍然是一个由全球标准贫穷的国家：一些2.07亿人仍低于世界银行贫困水平的生活费不到每天$ 1.25。
With economic growth have come demographic shifts and life improvements. Live expectancy has shot up while infant mortality has plummeted. In 1949 more than 90% of the population lived in rural areas; given the expansion of urban areas, slightly more than half (721 million) do today, according to official statistics. But China's increasing urbanization and spreading industrialization have resulted in a considerable loss of arable land and forcible evictions, sparking much resentment against local officials.
Chinese intellectual life has also improved, although over time this remains one of the real dark spots of Chinese communist rule. For six decades intellectuals have been persecuted, harassed and forced to conform and create within various boundaries set by the state. They continually probe the boundaries — until the state pushes back. Despite continuing controls, public and private discourse in China has never been so free. The blogosphere and Internet are alive with unbridled discussion — unless and until it crosses the state censor's invisible hand. (Read "Avoiding Censors, Chinese Authors Go Online.")
随着经济的增长也带来人口变化和生活改善。现场寿命已上升，而婴儿死亡率大幅下降。在1949年超过90％的人口居住在农村地区，由于城市扩张，略多于一半（721万）今天做，根据官方的统计数字。但是，中国日益增加的城市化和工业化的蔓延，导致可耕地和武力驱逐相当大的损失，引发对地方官员很大的反感。
中国知识分子的生活也有所改善，但随着时间的推移这仍然是中共统治的黑暗现实景点之一。 60年来的知识分子受到迫害，骚扰和被迫遵守和创造在国家规定的各种界限。他们不断探索边界-直到国家往前推。尽管继续控制，公共和私人话语在中国从未如此自由。博客和互联网的活着的肆无忌惮的讨论-除非它跨越国家检查员的无形之手。
While China has made much progress, it still has many blemishes. Treatment of ethnic minorities — particularly Tibetans and Uighurs — is the Achilles' heel of the regime, as violent riots last year and in recent months have clearly demonstrated. Crime and corruption remain serious problems, while cities struggle to provide basic services to the huge "floating population" of 100 million or so migrants. Income disparities (as measured by the Gini coefficient) are now approaching the highest in the world. China has again become a stratified society — just what Mao sought to eliminate. Still, given the unprecedented scale and nature of China's socioeconomic change over the past 30 years, the country's relative stability is commendable.
Politics Not as Usual
At first glance, China's political system has not changed much since 1949. It is still a Leninist system, dominated by the CCP and an oligarchy of its self-selected leaders, which tolerates no opposition. The Party's powerful Organization Department oversees all major appointments in the country, and one must really be a party member to get ahead professionally. Party and government organs remain essentially as they were six decades ago, copied from the Soviet Union.
But while much of the structure and essential nature of the system remains largely the same, the substance and process of politics has changed quite a lot. The leadership and the 76 million party members are better educated and their recruitment and promotion is much more meritocratic. Competence is now rewarded. In the past, there existed only two exit paths from officialdom: purges and death. Now mandatory retirement is firmly implemented. Instead of being a totalitarian party dominated by a single leader, the CCP today is an authoritarian party with a collective leadership. The leaders themselves — at least those I have witnessed — are now remarkably self-assured and relatively sophisticated. Marxist-Leninist ideology plays little, if any, role in their decision-making. The policy process is more consultative, although still lacking in transparency. Much emphasis is put on governance and officials at all levels undergo required training in public administration.
On the whole, the Communist Party has proven itself to be remarkably adaptable and open to borrowing elements from different countries and political systems. As a result it is becoming a hybrid party with elements of East Asian neo-authoritarianism, Latin American corporatism and European social democracy all grafted to Confucianist-Leninist roots. The uprising in Tiananmen and across China in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of communist systems in Europe and the Soviet Union were instructive experiences for the CCP. Many lessons were drawn, but the principal one was to remain flexible and adaptable, not dogmatic and rigid. (Read "Beijing Clamps Down After Call for Democracy.")
虽然中国已取得了很大进展，但仍然有许多污点。处理少数民族-特别是藏族和维吾尔人-是致命的制度脚跟，因为暴力骚乱去年，在最近几个月已清楚地表明。犯罪和腐败仍是严重问题，而城市斗争提供基本服务的巨大的“流动人口100多万移民”。收入差距（衡量的基尼系数）正接近世界上最高的。中国再次成为等级森严的社会-这是毛泽东设法消除。尽管如此，由于规模空前，中国在过去30年来的社会经济变化的性质，该国的相对稳定，是值得赞扬的。
政治不作为常住
乍一看，中国的政治体制并没有太大的改变自1949年以来。这仍然是一个列宁主义的制度，主要由中共和寡头政治的自我选择的领导人，而不容反对。党的强大组织部负责该国所有主要的任命，而必须是一个真正共产党员的专业获得成功。党政机关基本上与他们60年前，从苏联复制。
但在大部分的结构和制度的本质仍然是大致相同的物质和政治进程已经改变了很多。的领导和76万名党员受到更好的教育和他们的招聘和晋升得多任人唯才。现在是回报能力。在过去，只存在两个官场退出路径：肃清和死亡。现在强制退休是坚决贯彻执行。而不是一党极权由一个领导者占主导地位，今天的共产党是一个独裁党的集体领导。领导人自己-至少是那些我亲眼看到-现在非常自信，相当复杂。马克思列宁主义思想少了，在他们的决定如有方面的作用。该政策更广泛协商的过程，但仍然缺乏透明度。许多重点放在治理和各级需要接受公共管理培训官员。
整体而言，共产党已经证明自己是显着的适应性和开放的来自不同国家和政治制度的借款要素。因此，它已成为东亚地区其他国家新的元素，权威，拉丁美洲社团和所有嫁接到儒家欧洲的社会民主列宁主义的党的基层混合。在天安门起义，在中国于1989年，共产主义制度在欧洲和苏联瓦解，随后为中共的指导经验。许多教训，得出，但主要之一是保持灵活性和适应性，而不是教条和僵化。
Will the Party's adaptability and the nation's continuing economic growth be sufficient to sustain it in power indefinitely? Perhaps. The CCP's sustenance to date has certainly surprised many leading China watchers. But, going forward, the major challenge to the Party will likely be its ability to deliver adequate "public goods" to the population: health care, education, environmental protection and other social services. Providing stability and ever increasing personal wealth will not be enough to guarantee the Party indefinite legitimacy — it must continuously improve the quality of life of its citizens. This is China's new revolution: the revolution of rising expectations.
Taking On the World
Any consideration of China's transformation since 1949 must recognize the dramatic improvement in China's global posture. Sixty years ago the new People's Republic was cut off from the world, having diplomatic recognition only from a relatively small number of nations. It was excluded from the U.N. It soon became embroiled in the Korean War and the Cold War, which brought further isolation. Despite some marginal trade with Western Europe following the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina, China was cut off from international trade, finance and aid. As a result, its economy stagnated. See pictures of "China Goes to Africa."
将党的适应性和国家经济的持续增长，足以维持其权力无限期？或许。中共迄今寄托一定惊讶许多领先的中国观察家。但是，前进的重大挑战党很可能是，它能够提供足够的“公共物品”的人口：保健，教育，环境保护和其他社会服务。提供稳定和不断增加的个人财富将不足以保证党的无限期的合法性-它必须不断提高其公民的生活质量。这是中国的新革命：革命的不断提高的期望。
以在世界
任何中国的转型考虑1949年以来必须认识到，在中国的全球态势显着改善。 60年前，新的人民共和国被切断世界，而只从数量相对较少的国家的外交承认。它被排除在联合国很快就卷入了朝鲜战争和冷战，这使进一步孤立。尽管出现了一些与西欧之后，1954年日内瓦会议印度支那的边际贸易，中国被切断的国际贸易，金融和援助。因此，经济停滞不前。
Six decades later, China has fully embraced globalization at home and has burst onto the world's stage in a largely positive fashion. It now has both interests and a presence in parts of the world completely new to China — such as Latin America and the Middle East — and enjoys rising international prestige. Beijing has generally managed its relations well with the major world powers: the U.S., Russia and the E.U. It has transformed its regional diplomacy in Asia, reasserted a role in Africa and become much more deeply engaged with international organizations and across a range of global-governance issues. China used to eschew multilateralism, distrusting it as some kind of (Western) conspiracy. While Beijing remains a selective multilateralist globally — engaging on some issues and not others — the broad trend has been positive and in the direction of deeper contributions to the world community.
China is also more proactive on global security issues ("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them). When natural disasters now strike, such as the South and Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004 and the Pakistan earthquake the following year, China is there to provide physical and financial assistance. China now has over 2,100 peacekeeping personnel deployed in about a dozen nations worldwide — more than any other member of the U.N. Security Council. This is one tangible expression of China's strong commitment to the U.N. Today, indeed, the PRC may be the greatest advocate of the U.N. among the major powers. (Read "China Takes on the World.")
60年后，中国已全面接受在家全球化和如今已走上世界舞台爆裂的大多是积极的方式。现在有两种利益在世界全新的中国零部件和存在-如拉丁美洲和中东地区-并享有国际威望不断上升。北京普遍管理与世界主要大国的关系很好：美国，俄罗斯和欧盟它改变了其在亚洲地区外交，重申在非洲的作用，变得更加深刻与国际组织的参与和横跨全球治理的一系列问题。中国用于避开多边主义，不信任的一些（西方）阴谋是什么种类。尽管北京依然是全球多边主义的选择-在某些问题上，而不是其他人-的大趋势是积极的和更深的贡献国际社会的方向进行。
中国也更在全球安全问题（“热点作为中国分析家”积极描述一下它们）。现在当自然灾害袭击，如南亚和东南亚海啸在2004年和巴基斯坦地震的第二年，中国是否有提供物质和财政援助。中国目前已经拥有超过2,100维持和平行动的大约12个国家的全球-比任何联合国安理会其他成员更部署人员。这是一个明确的表达了中国坚定地致力于联合国的今天，事实上，中共可能是在大国之间的最大主张联合国
In the field of arms control, China used to be a serious proliferator of missiles and missile components, and a significant seller of conventional arms. But, over time, China has signed or ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Biological and Conventional Weapons Convention, has joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group and has essentially adhered to the Missile Technology Control Regime (although it is not a member). This is not the China that the world used to know: a "revisionist" destabilizing power that sought to overturn the international order. Today, the People's Republic of China is deeply involved across the globe and is increasingly an upholder of, and contributor to, the existing international order. China has been a considerable beneficiary of the post – Cold War order, which has allowed Beijing to establish a presence in regions and international institutions that was not previously possible.
China's strategic posture is also changing. Its military modernization program has made giant strides in recent years — and they will be on display in the massive military parade in central Beijing on Oct. 1. In many categories China's military is the best in Asia and in some sectors is approaching NATO standards. The People's Liberation Army still has no global strike capacity, however, other than its intercontinental ballistic missiles and cyberwarfare capabilities.
Still, many countries worry about China's rise and global expansion, even though it has, to date, been outwardly peaceful. Public opinion polls in Europe and the U.S. regularly reflect a negative image of China, while concerns over economic competition and job losses are growing in Europe, Africa and Latin America. Substantial strains remain in Beijing's ties with three of China's most important neighbors: Australia, India and Japan. Even relations with Russia, which have achieved historic highs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have run into obstacles. This is unsurprising. As Beijing expands its influence and begins to flex its new muscle on the world stage, it's to be expected that China will engender occasional discord with other nations. (Read "The China-India Rivalry: Watching the Border.")
在军控领域，中国曾经是一个导弹和导弹部件严重增殖，以及重大的常规武器销售。但是，随着时间的推移，中国已签署或批准了核不扩散条约，全面禁止核试验条约，生物和常规武器公约，已经加入了核供应国集团基本上遵守导弹技术控制制度（尽管它是不是成员）。这不是中国所用知道的世界：一个“修正主义”破坏稳定的力量，试图推翻国际秩序。今天，人民共和国的中国深入参与全球和正越来越成为一个维护者，贡献者，现有的国际秩序。中国一直是该职位相当的受益者-冷战秩序，使北京建立一个地区，而过去是无法实现的国际机构的存在。
中国的战略态势也在发生变化。它的军事现代化计划已在最近几年阔步前进-他们将在中部的大规模阅兵展示北京将于10月1日。在许多类别的中国军队是亚洲最好的，在某些行业已接近北约标准。在解放军仍没有全球打击能力，但是，除了它的洲际弹道导弹和网络战能力。
尽管如此，许多国家担心中国的崛起和全球扩张，即使它，迄今为止，被表面的和平。在欧洲的民意调查，美国经常反映了中国的负面形象，而对经济竞争和就业的担忧在欧洲，非洲和拉丁美洲的增长。大量菌株继续与三个中国最重要的邻国：澳大利亚，印度和日本北京的关系。即使与俄罗斯的关系，取得了自苏联解体的历史高位，已经遇到的困难。这并不令人奇怪。随着北京扩大其影响力，并开始在世界舞台上展示其新的肌肉，这可以预料，中国将与其他国家产生分歧偶尔
Future Shock?
Some historians of China think they see the telltale signs of dynastic decline: government corruption, social discontent (especially in the countryside), autocratic rulers and a militarizing state. Some contemporary China experts also voice their doubts — proclaiming the regime fragile and the political system ossified — while economists question how long the dynamic growth can continue.
While the system and country have weaknesses and challenges, the Sinological landscape is littered with its naysayers and critics. The People's Republic of China has endured for six decades and has overcome a wide variety of serious domestic crises, border wars and international isolation. Its strengths and adaptability have repeatedly been underestimated by outside observers. One thing is certain: China will remain a country of complexity and contradictions — which will keep China watchers and Chinese alike guessing about its future indefinitely.
Shambaugh is professor and director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and currently a visiting scholar at the China Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. His latest book is China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation
未来的冲击？
在中国一些历史学家认为他们看到了王朝衰落的蛛丝马迹：政府腐败，社会不满（特别是在农村），专制统治者和军事化状态。当代中国的一些专家也表达他们的疑虑-脆弱，宣布政权和政治体制僵化-而经济学家的问题多久可以继续蓬勃发展。
虽然系统和国家的弱点和挑战，汉学到处都是它的反对者和批评者。在中国人民共和国已持续了60年，并克服了严重的国内危机，边界战争和各种国际孤立。其优势和适应性一再被低估了外部观察员。有一点是肯定的：中国将仍然是复杂和矛盾的国家-这将保证中国观察家和中国都对未来的猜测下去。
沈大伟是教授和中国政策项目主任乔治华盛顿大学在华盛顿特区，非居民在布鲁金斯学会高级研究员，现为北京社会科学院中国研究院访问学者。他的最新著作是中国共产党：萎缩性和适应
