交易的六种境界
文章来源: mojoe2011-12-03 08:08:23


一、神秘阶段

新手开始交易时,很少或根本不了解市场,不知道各类市场之间,以及市场与经济之间的相互关系。价格图就像是一个毫无意义的彩色线条波浪线,看起来更像是一个现代艺术博物馆的绘画。

通过观察了解,新手慢慢开始有一点感觉。

二、被火锅烫阶段

看到一个不断重复的价格形态之后,开始试着交易,不幸被套。不断试,不断被套。最终放弃这个简单的交易策略。

三、怀疑阶段

开始怀疑书上所说的、怀疑交易课程,怀疑交易商、庄家、“市场操纵者”、等等。

四、价格图充满了弯弯曲曲的指标

开始寻找“秘密武器”、“圣杯”。发疯似的试验各种方法和指标。买各种书籍,参加各种课程,订阅各种通讯和咨询服务,访问各种网站和各种各样的聊天室。买高级交易软件。

不幸的是,图表搞的很复杂,很难得出一致的交易信号

五、阶段

开始意识到什么交易方式,技术,技巧在市场中流行。不再把全部注意力放在外在因素上,而是开始问自己一些问题:
我目标是什么?我要完成什么?

什么样的交易适合我?长线,中线,还是短线交易?日内交易?

趋势交易?快速倒卖交易(
scalping)?最喜欢哪种?
选择交易品种:期货,股票,
ETF,债券,期权哪个品种提供了所需的波动范围,同时又在风险承受能力之内?

使用“科学方法”制定交易计划,包括风险管理和寸头管理。

意识到好奇心,超然的兴趣,恒心和毅力,以及点点滴滴的知识积累,在制定交易计划和交易策略中的重要性。交易计划具有独特性,完全是自己的。对此充满信心,因为已经彻底地测试过,并且从自己的经验中知道,这个交易计划是可以持续盈利的。

对交易的方方面面全部负责,包括亏损。知道亏损是交易的必然的一部分。明白市场交易的风险完全控制在自己手里。

不再报怨庄家、交易商、或者其他骗钱的“阴谋家”。不再企图报复市场。不再烦恼。不再发火。不再屈从于希望、恐惧、贪婪。冲动,情绪化的交易不见了。相反,只是平静地交易。

六、融会贯通阶段

到了这个阶段,交易进入了一种象禅一样状态。计划、分析、研究成为支配时间和精力的重点。每当交易时间开始,我已经准备好了。很平静,轻松,专注,高效率。

交易变得毫不费力。我完完全全熟悉自己的交易计划。在任何情况下我都知道我该做什么,包括在意想不到的情况下立即退出交易。我明白不可避免的亏损是交易的自然的一部分。没有人能够伤到我,因为我已经用我的交易规则和交易纪律把自己保护起来了。

我对市场的潮起潮落有了知觉。我时刻准备着I am available。我不需要知道市场下一步会做什么,因为我知道不管市场在做什么,我将如何反应。我对自己如何反应很有信心。

我明白无为而治Active Inaction而且照此执行。我知道我要的是什么,在寻找什么。我耐心地等待,等待绝佳的机会。当机会来临时,我会毫不犹豫地果断出击。然后我又开始耐心地等待下一个机会。

我不试图说服自己是正确的。我通过仔细观察价格运动来下结论。当价格行为改变时,我也改变我的战术。价格运动是绝对真理。我不试图耍小聪明或者过度猜测市场。

在某种意义上讲,我把自己一分为二,观察者和执行者。外面的观察者,作为教练,问我问题,同时我以不自圆其说的方式,向观察者自己解释我在等待什么,在做什么,并且时刻提醒自己这样或那样会发生的事情,让自己专注在重点上,对分心的事泰然处之。

对赢利交易,我不过度兴奋,面对亏损交易,我不郁闷。我知道价钱该怎么样就怎么样,市场该怎么样就怎么样。我的交易业绩与我的自我价值无关。

在这个阶段,直觉开始出现。也许不是很频繁,但我开始试验用我的直觉,慢慢学会信任并且利用我的直觉。

每天我都会复审这一天的交易。根据结果,如果需要,我会对交易策略做出必要的调整,然后开始为下一天的交易做准备。

做完这一切后,我对自己这一天的工作感到满意。



读到arabbitter的博文,很受启发,摘录几点如下:
原文在此:http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201112&postID=3557

初级阶段收益风险结构上有两种基本特征:1:风险变小。对风险很敏感,控制力越来越强。2:赚钱也少。拿不起放不下,早早止损,快快止赢。亏损固然截短了,利润也不会奔跑。因而,职业交易的初级阶段是告别了暴利和大亏。

入门阶段。大势的意识和感觉,慢慢学会做波段和长线。做波段和长线难在安全边际的界定。有了安全边际,时间会把安全边际和仓位逐渐转换为可观的利润。短线交易性机会拿交易性的利润,时间的威力就很难发挥出来。能截短亏损,让利润奔跑。

准成功阶段。一般也就是每天大致看看盘,每周有一两次分析分析数据和市场,检查检查安全边际和仓位合理性。

最大的敌人不是贪婪,不是恐惧,而是侥幸。侥幸希望偶然性小概率事件发生或不发生,爆仓就是这样发生的。

交易者的灵感来自于凝神聚力,精神的高度集中,也就是进入入定状态。仿佛自己与时间都不存在了,完全进入到一个境界里,并在那个境界中效率很高地获得灵感。越是水平高的人,越是比一般人更多地在入定状态。看盘时,使自己和市场融为一体,能把握住微妙细节。好的交易状态,时刻需要健康的身体、心理和心态的配合。

交易是博弈的艺术,沧桑繁华要历经几度循环才能返璞归真,终致奥妙于心。经受了大喜大悲,顿悟之后豁然开朗。原来,交易本就简单,输赢皆由心生。极度紧张痛苦到极度放松超脱,来回往复,最终凝结成涅磐似的安详和平和,那是内心世界无法言传的精神满足!

 


Stage Five: The Inwardly-Bound Stage

The trader who is able to pry himself out of Stage Four uses his experiences there productively. The trader learns, as stated earlier, what styles, techniques, and tactics are popular. But instead of focusing entirely on what’s “out there”, he begins to ask himself some questions:

What exactly does he want? What is he trying to accomplish?

What sort of trading makes the most sense to him? Long or intermediate-term trading? Short-term trading? Day-trading? Trend-trading? Scalping? Which is most comfortable?

What instrument — futures, stocks, ETFs, bonds, options — provides the range and volatility he requires but is not outside his risk tolerance? Did he learn anything at all about indicators in Stage Four that he might be able to use?

And so he “auditions” all of this in order to determine what suits him, taking all that he has learned so far and experimenting with it.

He begins to incorporate the “scientific method” into his efforts in order to develop a trading plan, including risk management and trade management. He learns the value of curiosity, of detached interest, of persistence and perseverance, of taking bits and pieces from here and there in order to fashion a trading plan and strategy that are uniquely his, one in which he has complete confidence because he has tested it thoroughly and knows from his own experience that it is consistently profitable.

He accepts fully the responsibility for his trades, including the losses, which is to say that he understands that losses are inevitable and unavoidable. Rather than be thrown by them, he accepts them for what they are, a part of the natural course of business. He examines them, of course, in order to determine whether or not some error was made, particularly one that can be corrected, though true trading errors are rare. But, if not, he simply shrugs off the loss and goes on about his business. He understands, after all, that he is in control of his risk in the market.

He doesn’t rant about his broker or the specialist or the market maker or that vast conspiracy of everyone who’s trying to cheat him out of his money. He doesn’t attempt revenge against the market. He doesn’t fret. He doesn’t fume. He doesn’t succumb to hope, fear, greed. Impulsive, emotional trades are gone. Instead, he just trades.

Stage Six: Mastery

At this level, the trader achieves an almost Zen-like trading state. Planning, analysis, research are the focus of his time and his effort. When the trading day opens, he’s ready for it. He’s calm, he’s relaxed, he’s centered.

Trading becomes effortless. He is thoroughly familiar with his plan. He knows exactly what he will do in any given situation, even if the doing means exiting immediately upon a completely unexpected development. He understands the inevitability of loss and accepts it as a natural part of the business of trading. No one can hurt him because he’s protected by his rules and his discipline.

He is sensitive to and in tune with the ebb and flow of market behavior and the natural actions and reactions to it that his research has taught him will optimize his edge*. He is “available”. He doesn’t have to know what the market will do next because he knows how he will react to anything the market does and is confident in his ability to react correctly.

He understands and practices “active inaction”, knowing exactly what it is he wants, exactly what it is he’s looking for, and waiting, patiently, for exactly the right opportunity. If and when that opportunity presents itself, he acts decisively and without hesitation, then waits, patiently, again, for the next opportunity.

He does not convince himself that he is right. He watches price movement and draws his conclusions. When market behavior changes, so do his tactics. He acknowledges that market movement is the ultimate truth. He doesn’t try to outsmart or outguess it.

He is, in a sense, outside himself, acting as his own coach, asking himself questions and explaining to himself without rationalization what he’s waiting for, what he’s doing, reminding himself of this or that, keeping himself centered and focused, taking distractions in stride. He doesn’t get overexcited about winning trades; he doesn’t get depressed about losing trades. He accepts that price does what it does and the market is what it is. His performance has nothing to do with his self-worth.

It is during this stage that the “intuitive” sense begins to manifest itself. As infrequent as it may be, he learns to experiment with it and to build trust in it.

And at the end of the day, he reviews his work, makes whatever adjustments are necessary, if any, and begins his preparation for the following day, satisfied with himself for having traded well.