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中国决胜台海三部曲(一)----引蛇出动
正如我差不多两年前预计的那样，台湾会在2008年把统独公投与总统大选绑在一起。入联公投实际上就是统独公投。
2008的台独时间表决不是台湾当局单独可以来确定的。2008年北京举办奥运会，2009年高雄举办世界运动会和2010年上海举办世界博览会的安排也决不是巧合，而是台独势力和东西方反中国势力的精心安排。
只要中国政府和中国人民有与统一共存亡的坚强决心并以实际行动向世人证明这一点，中国就一定能够粉碎台独企图，完成统一大业。
为夺取台海决战的胜利，我认为中国可把台海决战分三个阶段进行.
(一)第一阶段: 引蛇出动
中国在这一阶段可做一下事情:
(1)宣布中国再次进入内战状态(the resumption of civil war)
这个想法来自一位美籍华人的文章(原文见后).
宣布的时间应等台湾正式确定入联公投与总统大选绑在一起的第二天。
这样做的好处是:
(i) 界定台海之战是一国之内战,外人不应干涉;
(ii) 宣布中国再次进入内战状态,但先不采取行动,无人能谴责中国;
(iii) 既然中国再次进入内战状态,中国就可以在需要的时候采取行动,不需要的时候就不动,中国可以灵活进行台海之战.
(2)宣布台湾的一部分人为战犯或恐怖分子;
(3)中国军方做好攻台准备并防止有人对中国偷袭;
(4)既然中国再次进入内战状态,在中国的某些地区是不安全的,通知有关国家从中国领土的危险地区撤走;
这可起到敲山震虎,一石双鸟的作用.有关国家撤不撤人随他们去.
我估计有些国家又会搞军演或派军舰进入台海,如果那样,中国13亿人民对谁是中国的敌人谁是中国的朋友就一目了然了,全国上下也就能更好形成同仇敌慨的凝聚力，中国在台海决战第一阶段(引蛇出动)的目的就达到了.
接下来中国就可做第二阶段的事情.
再次提一下中国决胜台海的三张牌: 大陆民意，国际外交和军事斗争。
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*美籍华人的文章
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There are many things Mainland can do regarding the gradual independence of Taiwan by CSB.
We ought to realize that it is a game played by CSB, step-by-step, little-by-little towards independence. If Mainland did not respond to a small step, then another small step follows. This way he will not get the condemnation by USA. Eventually, the independent Taiwan is a fact not a political argument anymore. This is his strategy.
Well, if he plays the game, why not mainland also plays the same game, if independence is gradual, unification can be gradual too. Force can be gradual too. The first thing mainland can do is to declare the resumption of civil war. The civil war between the PRC government and ROC government was never officially ended. Simply declare the war again and make no military move, so nobody will condemn you anything.
Many people say President Bush is stupid. Actually, I think he is really smart politically, he declared the war on terrorism. If he needs it, it is a war, if he doesn’t need it, it is not a war. Why not Mainland does the same thing, declare the resumption of civil war, life goes on as usual, if CSB does something politically, then Mainland does something militarily too.
The second thing Mainland can do is to prosecute CSB under the anti-secession law in the Mainland. Let the world know that it is one country, the law applies to him too.
I do not know how to input Chinese. I wish someone will translate this into Chinese and post to as many places as possible so that the Mainland government will get the idea.
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Ask the Two Conferences to authorize the resumption of the civil war.
You do not need to have any military movement at this moment. After declaring war, in the future, if he do something towards independence, shoot a missile or two to a no-man place in Taiwan as response, since it is a war, you will not have the blame neither the high pressure from other countries.
Here is another story.
Several years I was working in a university. The university Foundation has a lady from Taiwan. She was married to a Japanese. She organized a meeting called “Formosa Independence Forum”. At that time, many Chinese students went to the forum to protest, there was even a little violence. When I found out she was the organizer, I wrote a letter to the Foundation. “As a citizen, taxpayer and alumni, I strongly feel she abused her power and abused public resources for her personal political agenda. I demand an investigation on this incident. Or I will request the State Budgeting Office to do the investigation and I reserve all legal rights to pursue it further.”
After some time, the Foundation replied me “Our investigation found no wrong-doing of her, however, she moved to another position in the university and is no longer with the Foundation.” The forum was never held again. |
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