华尔街知名大空头投降认输!喊美股明年Q2上看5400点
随著美股再度挑战新高,华尔街著名大空头摩根士丹利投资长威尔森(Michael
Wilson)倒戈支持多头,预估到明年第2季,标普500指数将达到5400点,大幅上调2成。
外媒报导,随着美股近几个月来的持续上涨,再创新高,多家大型投行纷纷上调标普500目标价,其中又以BMO投资策略师Brian
Belski将标普500指数年底目标提高至5600点,是目前华尔街主流投行中目标价最高,其次是富国银行,从原4625点上调到5535点,第3则是德意志银行,目标价从5100点调高到5500点,至于弃械投降的大摩则从4500点大幅高到5400点,而目前目标价估最低者则是加拿大皇家银行,从5150点提高到5300点。
摩根士丹利在最新发佈的全球策略年中展望报告中,威尔森倒戈支持多头,并指出,首先需要认识到,对于美国经济将在联准会的紧缩週期中实现硬著陆、软著陆还是无著陆,存在不同看法,这使得可能的结果范围相当广泛。
他指出,“过去几个月是这方面的1个缩影,因为在一段强劲增长后,经济增长数据再次降温,而通膨数据则波动较大”,简而言之,由于数据变得更加不稳定,宏观结果变得越来越难以预测。
儘管如此,威尔森的基准预测是,在收入增长和利润率扩张的推动下,2024年和2025年的盈利增长率分别爲8%和13%。
因此,到2025年第2季度,标普500指数的12个月远期本益比将是2026年6月预期总收益283美元的19倍,相当于5400点。
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