▲美国前总统川普虽面临法律官司,但在最新的民调中,他仍稳定领先现任总统拜登。
尽管美国前总统川普(Donald
Trump)虽面临法律官司,但在最新的民调中,他仍稳定领先现任总统拜登。不过,曾连续40年准确预测总统当选人的历史专家李奇曼(Allan
Lichtman)仍看好拜登会连任,并称现阶段的民调毫无参考价值。
根据《卫报》报导,美国美利坚大学(American University)历史学者李奇曼(Allan
Lichtman)自从1984年的大选开始,精准预测每次总统大选的选情,包含2016年希拉蕊败选输给川普。
李奇曼依照其设计的「13个关键因素」模型来预测选情。他表示,尽管民调显示拜登在全国范围陷入困境,但仍有很大的机会连任,「拜登要在11月输给川普,必须要发生很多差错。」
「13个关键因素」模型主要是根据历史因素来预期选举结果,而非依赖民调、策略或竞选活动。模型包含13个是非题,若有6个以上的问题对执政党不利,那么执政党候选人将会输掉选举;如果对执政党不利的问题少于6个,那么执政党候选人将会胜出。
李奇曼表示,有2个关键问题对拜登的连任大有帮助,分别是他在党内初选中没有遇到重要的挑战者,以及他是现任的总统,「他们被民调迷惑了。选前6至7个月的民调,预测价值为零。」
不过他也强调,这并不意味着拜登必定会赢,有一些关键因素仍对川普有利,包含民主党有第三方挑战者小罗勃.甘迺迪(Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.)、以色列与巴勒斯坦问题,还有另外2项与经济有关的因素也偏向川普。
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