2011年一位女网友在大千问了我一个关于TD的投资问题 七

"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."  - 巴菲特

"I think diversification and all the stuff they're teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere,"
Stan Druckenmiller said during a speech on January 18th at the Lone Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida.
 

我个人是完全认同Diversification的投资思想的，也认可指数投资的方法的，但是在实际投资中，我选择集中投资模式，因为这是主动型投资取得好成绩的理想方法。

TD是我长期以来关注和思考的一个投资标的，在最近的思考中我发现如果我这些年只投资了TD，将所有的精力和资金都集中投资在TD上，那么我现在的投资回报会高出许多，而且投资的过程会更轻松。但是要做到高度集中是非常困难的，因为这是违背人的本性的。

在女网友开始投资时，因为资金量不大，不会有太大的问题，但当资金数量达到一定规模时（对于投资者而言），会非常容易放弃高度集中方式，这是人的天性，不容易克服。

为什么如果集中投资TD一个股票，投资回报会比整个投资回报高出许多？事实上TD的股价波动要小于整体市场的波动，出现超高性价比的机会并不多。

芒格：

“Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you're not going to make much different than a six percent return - even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with one hell of a result.”

TD 过去十年的ROE



在加国市场中能够长期达到TD的ROE水平的公司并不多，所以一个加股的组合，即使是在买入的时候有比较大的性价比优势，长期（三年以上）依然会落后于TD的投资回报表现，这与赌场中的ODDS意义相同，决定长期结果的是生意模式的优势和博弈游戏的赌场优势，而不是个人的“技巧”。

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects. - 芒格


如果选择了集中投资方式，在长期的持有等待过程中能做些什么？

 

2011年，老巴印度之行的谈话

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

市场波动必然会出现低风险高回报的机会，即使是优质的长期蓝筹股也一样，因为市场中有非常大的资金和参与者只愿意或只能够关注短期市场表现。这是投资者值得重视的投资机会。

世界顶尖投资者，巴菲特，芒格，索罗斯，伊坎等等对待投资机遇的态度都是完全一致的。

 They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple

 一个普通投资者，在遇到市场大幅波动时，可能会经常完全忘却投资基本常识，而投资大师的做法是：

伊坎：大选之夜，提早离开庆功宴回家投入十亿。

巴菲特 ：Buy American, I am.

索罗斯：We should have 200 percent of our net worth in this trade, not 100 percent.

“在投资的世界里，一次大机会的成果远超过千百次的小折腾。同样的时代大家其实面临的机会都差不多，区别只在于把握度。真正的大机会，把握住一次足以改变境遇；把握住两次将开启全新的人生；把握住三次整个家族都会不同。从a股历史规律来看，其实每3-5年都大概率的会碰到一次好机会，然而大多数人早已在各种小折腾中荒废了。“ -  水晶苍蝇拍