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轮到中国高举贸易大旗了

(2016-11-21 07:53:42) 下一个
变天了。
 
西方清一色民粹,从英脱欧到美国大选,法国排外潮、大选,意大利公投,荷兰的北欧的,反外族,反贸易(虽然说是所谓反“不公平贸易”【注1】),自由资本主义的基础被自己推翻了。
 
以前共产党担心什么“第三四代‘变色’”之类的,现在资本主义和平革命了。不是说西方都变成社会主义了,而是西方把自己给砸了。
 
西方还是好,还是强大,不过发展中国家也希望过着西方国家一样的好日子,制度社会机制科学教育技术还没跟上,就指望贱价出口点土特产到发达国家赚点外汇,现在西方说你们这不公平,不干了。
 
不公平?不就是按西方的规矩玩儿吗?有人脱贫有人致富,也有人被拉下了,希望大家都过好日子,不过难;有人转空子的,大家都转,不仅仅是发展中国家,不仅仅是中国,发达国家也转,看看吧,操作货币,哪家啊?日本首当其冲。欧洲美国保护主义不如发展中国家,不如中国,但也玩儿。所以自贸其实对西方是好处更大,大家更加依赖,更加向往,更认识龙头大哥,不过当大哥是有代价的,西方国内的上层阶层不愿意平均分配,贫富分化越来越大,一部分人很惨,这自贸是罪魁祸首?瞎掰。
 
我在狗屁不通的淳朴经济政策 一文里解释了这其中的奥妙,这是国内财富争夺互不相让的结果,中国有冲击,但意料之中的,问题是(西方)国内如何处置,如何对应,如果上次阶层不愿意分羹,只怪中国,就只能到今天的极端局面,最后自找苦吃。关注过我的文章的人知道,贸易其实是淳阵的一个小事,过半人在美国的日子挺不错,大部分人没受自贸的害,可是自贸却是个替罪羊,宰了叫不出声来,然而抑或不是伤了自己呢?
 
最典型的北美自贸协议,几乎按所有估计,北美自贸协议最美国基本打平(对中国的贸易制造业有损失),美国有失去的部分职业在其他领域产生回来了,但主流政客不敢说,而北美自贸协议对墨西哥的巨大打击,算是活该:
 
 
美国依靠自己的贸易保护和非法政府补贴摧毁了墨西哥的农业,几百人失业,美国人在乎吗?
 
美国2亿3千5百万投票人口,2亿(注了册的)投票人9千万人没投票,克林顿(Hillary Clinton)占了47.7%,淳朴(Donald Trump)46.7%,淳朴击败克林顿。这结果,我几个月前已经预料了:美国内斗的第一个牺牲品?美国。然而就是这结果,决定了美国对世界选择。
 
 
轮到中国来了。
 
中国是这么说的(亚洲太平洋经济合作组织年会):
 
中国能为世界经济复苏做什么?有四个着力点
第一,着力推进供给侧结构性改革,加快转变经济发展方式。
第二,着力促进创新发展,实现新旧动能转换。
第三,着力推进高水平双向开放,坚持互利共赢。
第四,着力实现共享发展、绿色发展,增进人民福祉。
 
“我多次强调,中国开放的大门永远不会关上,只会越开越大。”
 
虽然我对习近平有意见,但这话说得响。
 
 
习近平“希望双方共同努力,注重合作,管控分歧,确保两国关系的平稳过渡,并持续向前发展”,但习近平没有放弃暗示“我们在两国关系的“关键时刻(a hinge moment)”(彭博德国之声)。
 
习近平在亚洲太平洋经济合作组织年会签名
 
 
连新华社都用这样的口气,你还以为是英国广播公司的腔调,这世道。
“中国开放的大门永远不会关上,只会越开越大。”
 
十年后美国人回想此时此刻,大概会黯然觉得淳朴是如何将世界拱手推给了中国。
中国目前的经济实体、消费能力和进口规模都比不过美国,但这很快会变得,问问马云就行了。一年前马云给世界做了个报告,十年后中国将有6亿中产,那是个什么概念?那是中国会吃空世界,也就是说再多的出口中国也要,中国将超越任何一个国家成为世界头号进口国,也就是说世界货物向往之处。
 
一失足成千古恨,一失身成万世怨,是啥都有个开头,有时是往好的走,有时是往坏的走,在于人是否能有个长远的计划、盘算。光靠军事是不行的,大家最后还得要吃饭、过日子,有人来看家护院大家没意见,不过要是你动了我的饭碗,那就不能置之不理了。
 
只有贸易,互利的关系才能把大家连在一起,吓唬短期内有用,长期大家就不买账了。
 
《金融时报》特朗普的美国与新全球秩序(福山)
“特朗普击败克林顿,不仅对美国政治而言标志着一个分水岭,对整个世界秩序也是如此”。

换言之,美国一统世界的时代开始变了。

 
《观察者》弗朗西斯·福山:美国政治——衰败抑或更新?
 
浏览一下西方媒体,大家都只有一个话题:中国要高举世贸的大旗了。
 
 
 
 
大家是如何失落?
 
《合众社》
没了美国,泛太协议狗屁不是,安倍如是说。
 
恰如《石英钟》网站叹道(As Trump tweets about SNL and Broadway shows, China’s Xi Jinping embraces a new, powerful role),一边是咱的待任总统忙着用微信跟娱乐界吵架,另一边习近平正琢磨着如何建立个世界新次序。
 
曾几何时?
 
【注】
【1】西方说“贸易不公平”,简直是倒打一耙、颠倒黑白,多少国家被迫接受西方主宰的条约,开放市场,丧失国家民族工业。
 
 
 
《金融时报》China pledges to lead the way on global trade
President Xi outlines vision amid fears of US disengagement from Asia under Trump
 
China manoeuvres to fill US free-trade role
 
Chinese president Xi Jinping vowed on Saturday to open the door even wider to foreign business and play an even greater role in the process of globalisation as Beijing moved to take advantage of Donald Trump’s election and fears that he may herald a new era of US disengagement from Asia.
 
Speaking to business leaders on the sidelines of a 21-country Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru, Mr Xi offered a vision of a Chinese-led order marked by openness to trade and the free flow of investment. In a thinly-veiled rebuke of US President Barack Obama’s push to create a Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other economies that excluded China he also vowed to pursue trade agreements open to all.
 
“China will not shut the door to the outside world but will open it even wider,” Mr Xi said, vowing to "fully involve ourselves in economic globalisation".
 
"Close and exclusive arrangements are not the right choice,” he said.
 
Mr Xi’s invocation came as this month’s surprise election of Mr Trump, who has vowed to pull the US out of the TPP and threatened to take a more combative approach to trade with China, Mexico and other major partners, dominated discussions at the annual Pacific Rim summit.
 
It also reinforced what has become the main theme at this year’s APEC meeting with China moving quickly to take a leadership role that many see being abdicated by the US as the advocate of free trade and open economies in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific.
 
Speaking at a meeting with Mr Obama later on Saturday, the Chinese leader said relations between China and the US were now at an important juncture.
 
“We meet at a hinge moment in the China-US relationship,” he said. “I hope the two sides will work together to focus on cooperation, manage our differences, and make sure there is a smooth transition in the relationship and that it will continue to grow going forward.”
 
With the future of the TPP in doubt, China has been pushing a rival Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and an even broader Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.
 
Importantly, the RCEP has been attracting new interest from countries such as Peru who are keen to plug into fast-growing economies in Asia.
 
Mr Xi said on Saturday that he expected to conclude the RCEP soon. He also opened the door to Latin American countries joining China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which was launched to revive the ancient Silk Road to Europe but has become a much bigger strategic project.
 
“We like the US being in the region. But if the US is not there that void needs to be filled, and it will be filled by China.”
John Key, New Zealand’s prime minister, said he would work to try and convince Mr Trump of the value of the TPP and the importance of US engagement in Asia. But he also warned that his country and others would not wait forever.
 
“There needs to be a realisation [in Washington],” he said. “The reason that President Obama pursued the TPP was all about the United States showing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. We like the US being in the region. But if the US is not there that void needs to be filled, and it will be filled by China.”
 
Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president, took a more conciliatory approach to Mr Trump, saying that while he believed in the TPP and would work to try and convince the new US president to back it he was prepared to discuss “modernising” the North American Free Trade Agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico. Mr Trump has promised to begin renegotiating the 23-year-old agreement in his first 100 days in office.
 
“Mexico’s position on Nafta is that instead of talking of a renegotiation, let’s talk of a modernisation of Nafta,” Mr Peña Nieto said. “Let's modernise Nafta, let's make it a much more potent vehicle, a much more modern vehicle that could allow us to really consolidate this strategic relationship between Mexico, the US and Canada, as a much more productive and competitive region before the world.”
 
“I want to be emphatic: for Mexico, due to its geopolitical position, without a doubt its central relationship is with the US,” the Mexican leader said. “We are not here to recognise a particular leadership … We are not here to pick between black and white. We believe in openness, we believe in integration, we believe in globalisation.”
 
Eric Farnsworth, vice-president of the Council of the Americas, said Saturday’s speech by Mr Xi looked like the announcement of a “strategic realignment” in the Pacific Rim.
 
“He clearly said we are open for business and we want you to come along … You compare and contrast that with where the United States is heading — and we may be looking more inward — it is a moment where if you are on the fence in terms of what direction you want to go or where your future lies you have to look at China.”
 
 
 
 
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