傅莹文

这是傅莹在美网站Huff Post上刊登的文章、采访录。

【摘要/读后感】
【1】不能只从北京、上海、广州来看这个。中国目前还是一个发展中国家。
【2】中国发展是个两个世纪的事。
【3】中国非常有意识、坚定地选择”和平崛起“，中国主张平等、互利。
【4】中国现在是世界上120以上的国家最大贸易伙伴（得查查资料，好家伙，厉害），年进口量过两万亿美元，对世界发展是个重要的支柱。
【5】过去三十年，中国总产值翻了95遍（真的？），而军费才涨了45%。中国意识到海外市场和资源是无需军队的。中国民众对世界争霸毫无兴趣。
【6】亚洲模式（东盟）。中国支持东盟。
【7】军事同盟问题很多（暗指美日），第一，同盟排外，第二，盟友耍赖，你怎么办？第三，日本政府拒绝承认历史（侵略史），反而大肆宣扬”中国威胁论“。
【8】亚洲的问题最重要的是中美关系。中美必须建立一个”新型的大国关系“，
【9】第二篇，翻译见此文。

傅莹文章像是比多年前在英国电视上成熟的多。



Answering Four Key Questions About China's Rise
10/17/2014
 

"Is China going to compete for world power?"

Most people in China, if asked such a question, would show little interest in seeing the country fighting for world power with the U.S., and still less in becoming another U.S.

However, in the U.S. and some European countries, many may ask: How can we trust that China won't be like that? They are concerned that China may try to set up a new regional order under its rule.

In a recent conversation with Henry Kissinger, he told me that he thought more people should know what the Chinese are thinking. I have therefore chosen a few hotly discussed topics below to share some of the views in China.

First, is China a world power?

For most in the U.S., and the world for that matter, China is undoubtedly already a newly rising world power.

According to the latest IMF purchasing power parity calculation, China's GDP overtook the U.S.' to be the number one economy of the world. However, such a story did not raise much excitement in China. Most see it simply as too flattering.

Foreigners see China's progress mainly from the images of China based on skylines in Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou. But if you drive out of these megacities 100 km, you will easily find people living at very basic levels. By the U.N. poverty standard of U.S.$ 1.25 a day, there are still about 200 million Chinese, or roughly 14 percent of the Chinese population, living under that line.

In China, urbanization has reached 51 percent. But when measured at the human level, people who are living in city conditions are no more than 37 percent. That is to say, more people in China are yet to enjoy urban quality of life like clean water and proper medical care.

China is a country that has just come out of overall poverty. Those born in the 1980s were the first generation of Chinese who have grown up with a full stomach and who started to enjoy the freedom of choices.

But at the national level, more challenges are waiting to be addressed, such as more hospitals, schools and better environment. The country is on a steep upward slope, confronting difficulties sometimes beyond imagination for the outside world.

That is why we state that China is a developing country, and for a long time to come, the country will focus on its reform and opening to the outside world in order to promote development.

We have two centenary objectives. The first is to double the GDP as well as both urban and rural average income based on 2010 figures in time for the 100 year anniversary of the Communist Party in 2020.

The second is to turn the country into a modernized socialist society, with per capita income levels reaching that of a moderate developed country for the 100 year anniversary of the People's Republic of China at the middle of this century.

Second, does China have to compete for world power and might this even lead to war?

According to Hans Morgenthau, the theorist of realism in international politics, countries will inevitably fight for international power as they become stronger. John Mearsheimer, who developed the "offensive neorealism" theory for the post-Cold War international situation, also sees unavoidable, tragic competition among powers.

But it is important for the world to realize that China is consciously shaping a new paradigm that follows a path of peaceful development.

China's foreign trade grew 300 times in RMB terms in the 30 years from 1983 to 2013. But this was not achieved with "flag before trade." Rather, it was the fruit of mutually beneficial cooperation on an equal footing and within the existing rule-based international free trade environment.

Especially after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, international trade grew at an average rate of 18.2 percent annually. China is now the largest trading partner for over 120 countries, importing more than U.S. $2 trillion worth of goods, and creating jobs and investment opportunities around the world. This factor also anchors China's relations with its partners.

During the past three decades, China's GDP expanded 95 times, while the increase in its military spending was only 42 percent of that rate. China follows a constitutionally stipulated national defense policy that is defensive in nature. Grabbing capital, resources and markets by military force as the world witnessed in the past is unnecessary in today's world, and it is unacceptable as a policy option for China.

There are both domestic and international reasons as to why peaceful development works for China.

In terms of internal factors, the Chinese nation has a strong belief in peace. Many of the ancient sayings go deep in people's mind ( i.e, "a nation, however powerful, is doomed if it is always hungry for war", "peace is most valuable under the sun" and "achieving harmony while allowing differences"). China suffered a great deal at the hands of foreign powers. We "do not do onto others what we don't want others to do to us."

As a socialist country, the interest and benefit of the whole population is at the center of China's domestic policy, which has determined that its international strategy is firmly rooted in peace and cooperation with all countries.

Externally, globalization has created conditions that made it possible for China to achieve peaceful development.

When the Cold War ended, it also broke the division caused by confrontation between opposing camps.

Thus a global trend of diffusion occurred, whereby resources and factors of production, such as capital, technology, talents and expertise, previously held mostly in the developed Western world, started to diffuse to the vast periphery. Wars and military expansion are no longer the workable and necessary way to attain economic expansion.

China made good use of this opportunity. Through its persistent reform and opening-up program, China has become the leading developing country in attracting international investment and technology. It has achieved its economic boost by being able to tap into global markets.

This is not a one way street. China's massive growth has benefited all those countries and businesses who partnered with China.

Many other developing countries also took on the wave of globalization, and their role is also essential in adding vigor to new period of world economic expansion.

China's peaceful development has been successful, and there is no reason not to continue it. Only by following peaceful development can China attain its development goals.

Third, how is China's commitment to peace reflected in its policy in the neighborhood?

As we entered the second decade of the 21st century, China's neighborhood has seen much disquiet. The temperature has risen over territorial disputes and maritime jurisdiction -- issues which had lain dormant for years. What has happened?

On April 10th, 2012, a Philippine navy ship sent armed men into the lagoon of Huangyan Island to harass Chinese fishermen who were working there. Photos of the scene angered the people back home who called for actions to protect Chinese citizens and territory.

The following September, the Japanese government went ahead with the so-called "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands, which broke the status quo of shelving the disputes for resolution at some future time. That too ignited serious demonstrations in many Chinese cities and gravely strained ties with China.

China took effective measures in response to both provocations to firmly uphold territorial rights and interests. At the same time, China has exercised restraint and has not given up on resolving disputes through dialogue or the principle of "putting aside differences and going for joint development." We also must watch closely the true intentions and other complicating factors that may lie behind provocations.

China and ASEAN countries have had many rounds of discussions and finally reaffirmed the commitment to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which underpins stability in the South China Sea. We also started talks on a "code of conduct."

Free and unimpeded passage in the South China Sea is crucial for China as a major trading country. Maintaining such freedom remains one of our priorities.

Compared with other regions in the world, Asia has remained peaceful and stable on the whole since the end of the Cold War. With no major conflicts, countries have been able to focus on economic development and cooperation.

In this process, they have not only deepened common interests but also made Asia an engine for the global economy, contributing roughly half of global growth in recent years.

China's good-neighborly policies over these years have played an important role in this process.

THE ASEAN WAY

One priority of China's Asia policy going forward is to support and join in the framework of dialogue and cooperation initiated by ASEAN, which fosters the principles of openness, inclusiveness, consensus building and accommodating each party's comfort level. This is known as the ASEAN Way.

This seemingly loose regional architecture led by ASEAN has provided a major integrating network that brought Asia together in the post-Cold War order.

China supports ASEAN centrality in East Asia cooperation, which now is an important component of the Asian order.

Parallel to this architecture is the bilateral military alliances led by the U.S., which is a legacy of the Cold War. How these alliances renew and reinvent themselves is being watched closely.

The "rebalance strategy" pursued by the U.S. in recent years exhibits a heavy military focus and has given rise to new debate.

THE TROUBLE WITH MILITARY ALLIANCES

First, military alliances are exclusive in nature. Where do non-members come in in its security vision? How do members balance their security interests and responsibilities with those of non-members?

Second, where do alliances draw the line when it comes to principles. Do members always support their allies, be it right or wrong?

Third, how does the alignment regime interface with and accommodate the region's other multilateral frameworks?

In the case of Japan, its current leader refuses to recognize the history of aggression. He has visited the Yasukuni Shrine and denies the fact of comfort women. Furthermore, he constantly invokes the "China threat" to justify his attempt to amend the country's pacifist constitution.

The concern among the Chinese people is that all this may be aimed at freeing Japan from post-World War restraints in order to attain the ability to wage war again.

As Japan's most important ally, how will the U.S. rein in this ally and keep it on a peaceful track? This will affect the future regional order in a fundamental way.

"As Japan's most important ally, how will the U.S. rein in this ally and keep on a peaceful track? This will affect the future regional order in a fundamental way."

In the final analysis, the decisive factor for Asia is whether China and the U.S. can properly manage their relationship and cooperate on regional issues.

Leaders of the two countries have agreed to build a new type of major-country relationship. The question is how this is realized in the real world.

The first issue is whether the two countries could build up mutual trust and reduce misperceptions. The lack of trust between China and U.S., both at a strategic level and in media circles, has led to continuous misreading and misjudgment, which spoils the atmosphere and stands in the way of cooperation.

For the U.S. side, the key lies in resisting the temptation to view China from an ideological standpoint. If this obstacle cannot be removed, bilateral ties are likely to be affected by ups and downs from time to time.

The second is whether the two countries can learn to respect each other's interests and concerns. To the Chinese people, the U.S. seems to prefer choosing to stand on the opposing side on almost any issue that involves China's interest.

For instance, when China faces provocations from its neighbors, the U.S. has pointed fingers at China regardless of facts. By doing so, the U.S. has reinforced its negative image among the Chinese public.

To change that, the two countries could exhibit a more positive tone and conduct more visible cooperation in such areas as climate change, counterterrorism, curbing pandemics and cyber security.

Both countries need a prosperous and stable Asia. We should identify areas where we agree and work on them. In areas where we can't agree, let's put aside differences for further discussion.

We should state together our support for the multilateral frameworks led by ASEAN and leave little room for regional countries to worry about China-U.S. conflict or to take sides.

On the part of China, we should carefully consider how our actions might affect our neighbors. We should explain ourselves more proactively -- to make our voice better heard -- so that the outside world can have a more timely and objective understanding of our thinking and intentions.

Fourth, how do the Chinese people see their country's role in the world and its international responsibilities? Should China share global responsibility with the United States?

The world today is constantly troubled by conflicts in different regions. The Ukraine issue has not yet cooled down and the temperature continues to rise in the Middle East. China is perceived as not playing a sufficient role or even as shirking responsibilities.

In China, people see that most of the world's problem started from the wrong foot and then led to a mess. The easiest way to resolve an issue it to stop the fighting and find a compromise among the parties concerned.

"China may join in discussions about hotspot issues with the aim of seeking a peaceful solution, but it will not turn into a party involved in the conflict or take steps that make the problem worse."

It is a widely held belief in China that countries should not interfere in each other's internal affairs. So China may join in discussions about hotspot issues with the aim of seeking a peaceful solution, but it will not turn into a party involved in the conflict or take steps that make the problem worse.

How about China's global responsibility?

First and foremost, as a country accounting for one fifth of the world population, growing prosperous and staying stable in itself is a very important contribution of China to the world.

As for world security issues, China has offered good offices on the Korean nuclear issue and promoted stability in Afghanistan. We are also parties to many of the negotiations concerning regional and world security. However, China does not see itself as having an overriding power over other countries. Our view is this: should there be the need for international involvement, the opinion of the country concerned and the regional view must come first and the U.N.'s authorization cannot be circumvented.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has elaborated on the concept of Asian security, which promotes common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. That's a crystallization of China's security thinking, and it also goes along with the general thinking in Asia.

CHINA AND GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS

It is also important that China provides more public goods as its ability grows. For example, since 2008, the Chinese Navy has sent 45 ships to the pirate-ridden Gulf of Aden for escort missions, and half of the ships they helped were non-Chinese.

China has actively participated in international cooperation in disaster relief, combating transnational crimes and maritime security. China now ranks the first among developing countries in terms of peacekeeping assessment at the U.N., and it is the biggest contributor of peacekeepers among the Permanent 5 members of the Security Council.

China also strives to share anti-poverty experiences with African and other developing countries. Chinese medical personnel are at the forefront fighting the deadly Ebola virus and more assistance and resources have been sent from China in recent weeks.

Asia is the key area for China's international cooperation. China's initiatives to develop the Silk Road economic belt and maritime Silk Road are aimed at expanding connectivity and promoting common development. It combines China's advantage and the regional needs.

This modern Silk Road is not a closed or exclusive arrangement. We welcome more participation by countries, including the United States.

"This modern Silk Road is not a closed or exclusive arrangement. We welcome more participation by countries, including the United States."

When the U.S. judges China or other countries about their role in the world, it often prefers for others to just "follow me" or "do for me." This approach does not go down well with the Chinese people.

On the other hand, in China, we also need to fully understand and appreciate our country's new position in the world and grow into this new role.

The direction to go is for the Chinese and Americans to try to understand and appreciate each other's views and positions better. That is indispensable should the two countries want to work closely and effectively on world strategic issues.

This comment is adapted from remarks by Fu Ying at the Asia Society Dialogue on October 12, 2014.

Is America Ready for China as an 'Equal Brother?'
11/21/2014
 

Henry Kissinger Talks to China's "Iron Lady"

The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama earlier this month in Beijing resulted in a series of important agreements, including on climate change.

Against this background, The WorldPost has obtained exclusive permission to publish the following dialogue between Henry Kissinger and Fu Ying, which took place during a recent visit she made to the United States. Its candor and tone offer valuable insights into the thinking of these two important figures on the foreign policy of their countries.

Fu Ying -- who was referred to as the "iron lady" during her time as China's ambassador to the U.K. -- is now the powerful chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress of China. Henry Kissinger is one of America's leading strategists and a former U.S. secretary of state.

 

Henry Kissinger: You've met many people during this visit to the U.S. What's your impression?

Fu Ying: Yes, I listened to many people here as well as back in China and made some observations. The U.S. is at an interesting time. The 21st century is very different from the 20th. The U.S., though still the most powerful, can't keep everything under its thumb. Watching the U.S., the word I can use is "anxiety." It has so many problems of its own while trying so hard to handle many of the world affairs in the old way. This is not going to work and the U.S. needs to learn to adapt to the new world environment where the ground is shifting. In this changed world, countries have to work together, meaning accommodating and even making compromises when needed. The U.S. may need to change its way of looking at world issues.

Henry Kissinger: Indeed, the world has changed, and the U.S. is in a very unusual time. For a long period in history, the U.S. enjoyed absolute superiority and its foreign policy was based on such a premise. It is true that we are in a new century which is challenging for both countries. Not only for the U.S., for China, too, it's a challenge, isn't it?

Fu Ying: Yes, but very different challenges. For the U.S., it is the need to learn to work with equals. From my observation, the U.S., in its traditional world, had either allies that followed and relied on its support or enemies which should be fought and crushed. There were no equal partners like brothers. Has the U.S. ever had a brother?

Henry Kissinger: (laugh) No, I have not thought that way. You should write about this for more people to read and think.

Fu Ying: Yes, and thank you for saying that. Am I right to say that in the U.S. political culture, there is no such a concept of working with real equals? That's one of the reasons why the U.S. finds it uncomfortable to deal with a country like China which is neither its ally nor enemy, and who wants to be treated like an equal partner as brothers would expect. This is not because China wants to get on a par with a power like the U.S. In China's worldview, countries, big or small, should all live like brothers.

For China, the challenge is huge, too. To be, all of sudden, pushed to such a high world central stage and to be given so much expectation, the Chinese cannot but feel a certain bewilderment and have not yet grown into such a role. It is like a new actor on the stage with its back to the audience most of the time. For China as a country and for the people at large, it takes time to learn to be a world player and to play a bigger role. Most in the world do not see that and tend to examine China like looking at the old powers and misread China's words and deeds. The pressure for China is to learn fast.

"The pressure for China is to learn fast."

Actually, China just came out of poverty and its accomplishment is very basic. You can't imagine how we were faring just 20 years ago.

I remember at that time how difficult it was for my family to cover the expenses, especially in the last few days before receiving the next month's salary. Now the young in China are doing much better, but many of them still find it hard, especially in their early years, to achieve a decent life.

Henry Kissinger: Ordinary Americans don't know what kind of life you came out of. They don't know what the Chinese are thinking and what kind of life they are having. They see the Chinese are more and more wealthy and that China has become rich and powerful. So it will be more and more like the U.S. The younger generation of Chinese may take what they have for granted and place growing expectations on their government. Many people in the U.S. see the heating up of the China-Japan island dispute and China's disputes in the South China Sea and feel worried. They think it's because China wants more.

"I personally think what China wants is not to take over from U.S. China wants to be respected."

I personally think what China wants is not to take over from U.S. China wants to be respected. But as China is getting more prosperous and strong, wouldn't the desire to be respected grow stronger?

Henry Kissinger meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, April 24, 2013 (Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

Both China and the U.S. believe we are unique. The U.S. sees itself as exceptional. It's above others and can do things it wants. China also believes in its cultural superiority. From an historical point of view, China for a long period of time believed it was the center of the world and had superior culture over others. Isn't it true that its tributary relationship with neighbors in history was formed around China's cultural superiority? So, for many, what will be the future of China remains an open question.

Fu Ying: China regarded itself as at "the center under heaven" only before geographical knowledge grew and proved otherwise. It was not based on pursuing world power.

It is true that in China there is lots of pride in its culture richness and influence which went beyond its boundary. But there is no such ambition in the Chinese culture to rule the world per se. Actually during that time, the Chinese knew little about the outside world and had not much interest.

Expansionism finds no place in the Chinese cultural thinking. China's door was forced open by the imperialists during modern times. Now China has grown fast and has risen above the level of subsistence, but far from reaching the living standard of Americans. China confronts many difficult challenges at home.

The American lifestyle is quite extravagant and not all the rest of the world's population can live luxuriously that way, as the earth would find it difficult to support. Since China's leaders are well-experienced, including having worked at the grassroots level, they are fully aware of how the country is doing and what the people want. Compared with the international issues, the domestic issues, though very tough, are relatively predictable and within sight. The challenges at the world level are very new not only for the leaders, but also for the general public as there has been no precedents.

But we have to all face this crucially important choice, that is, do we bring the 21st century to peace or to conflict? Are we capable of keeping peace? The history of international relations has not seen a century without wars, has it?

Henry Kissinger: There was a period, between 1815 and 1915, for 100 years, there was no big war. It was after the French Revolution when leaders of all major countries wanted peace. By meeting regularly and by keeping to dealing with problems through negotiations, they overcame the risks of wars and managed to have kept peace. Do you think the U.S. and China will go to war?

Fu Ying: That's a very serious and important question. In theory, I think, the possibility of a world-scale war is small as countries are economically highly interdependent. There is too much at stake. More importantly, in a globalized world, countries can reach resources, market, capital and technologies without resorting to means of war. There is no longer the urge to war for economic gains. Besides, the form of war is no longer the same as the world has seen. Modern science and technology have advanced so much that the new means of war can easily go out of control. Just through the Internet a country, or even the world, can be brought to [a] standstill and even risk paralysis. The danger now, I think, is that there are still people who think war can be an option for solving differences among major countries.

Henry Kissinger: Not all wars in history had economic reasons. Now, though it may be unlikely that the major countries would fight each other, the risk of war still exists.

Looking at Europe in the decade prior to World War I, though there was no war, crises were occurring almost every year. People got used to it and tended not to pay much attention to them until they grew out of control and led to war.

"The danger now is that countries when issuing a threat may not know how to get out of it in a face-saving manner."

Now if crises are not addressed in a timely and proper way, they still can go out of control and lead to war. The danger now is that countries when issuing a threat may not know how to get out of it in a face-saving manner. From my experience, if some country tries to play a game between the U.S. and China, we need to keep a sober mind about it and not be manipulated.

THE CHINA VS. JAPAN DISPUTE

Fu Ying: Yes, some countries are good at swing between big countries. But I think the problems themselves are manageable. The real issue that should be watched carefully is the Japanese prime minister who has made a big story out of the Diaoyu Islands dispute and exaggerated it into a major military threat from China to Japan. He wants to use it as an excuse to adjust security strategy and even to amend Japan's peace constitution.

"If the U.S. does not see the risk and gets dragged in just because it is an ally [of Japan], that would affect how the trend goes and how every party judges the situation."

If the U.S. does not see the risk and gets dragged in just because it is an ally, that would affect how the trend goes and how every party judges the situation. Some senior politicians from the U.S. made comments tinted with emotion and not well thought over.

During my visit in the U.S., many questioned China's handling of maritime issues to which I gave explanation. But I found most people made their conclusion without even checking on the facts. It shows that China needs to speak up more.

There is a big gap in perception of China's status. Americans overestimated China and got into a kind of anxiety syndrome about China trying to overtake U.S. preeminence, which is least on the mind of the Chinese. On the Chinese side, public perception of the U.S. is growingly negative. Because they see that whenever China got into some difficult situation caused by provocations from its neighbors, the U.S. would be on China's opposing side, regardless of who started the trouble.

The U.S. is also found hurting China on many issues of interest and concern to the ordinary Chinese. It is also quite incomprehensible that U.S. politicians need to be critical of China in order to get votes. This negative mutual perception is not good if the two countries want to work together. So I think it is important to encourage direct communications including at the public level.

Henry Kissinger: This is indeed of big concern. The current imperative for the U.S. and China is to avoid visible conflict. Though on many occasions China was compelled to react to provocations, it should not give the outside world the impression that it is threatening its neighbors.

"Though on many occasions China was compelled to react to provocations, it should not give the outside world the impression that it is threatening its neighbors."

One common challenge for our two countries is that can we join hands to work on certain things? This will be good not only for the two countries but also for world peace and stability. The U.S. and China need to seriously consider what they can do together. Just like the Trans-Atlantic relationship was brought closer through genuine cooperation after World War II, the U.S. and China may link up closer by cooperation.

"Just like the Trans-Atlantic relationship was brought closer through genuine cooperation after World War II, the U.S. and China may link up closer by cooperation."

For example, we may find something new to do in northeast Asia. Of course it should not be in a way to make China's neighbors uneasy. President Obama and President Xi Jinping proposed to build a "new model of great power relationship" on which I believe there are a lot more things that the two sides can do.

I understand the predicament of China. The leaders do not want conflict with the U.S. But when facing provocation, they need to react to challenges. The U.S., too, is in [a] predicament.

Many people do not even know where these disputed islands are on the map. Leaders in both countries are under the influence of domestic pressure as a result of media and Internet effects. Nowadays people take information from television screens and the Internet. Their way of thinking is not like in the past when learning things from newspapers and books. So we need to draw a line to separate the problems and to reduce the temperature. There are many important things the U.S. and China need to work on and we should not be distracted.

The U.S. and China also need to keep good communications not only about the current issues, but also on the strategies of two countries. Future cooperation can be better pursued with clear understanding of each other's strategic direction.

For example, the U.S. does not need to use the South China Sea issue to threaten China. Modern strategists would not consider containing China by some small islands some hundreds of miles away from the mainland.

Fu Ying: Many difficulties in the China-U.S. relationship arise due to misperceptions. Therefore the two sides need to improve communications at both [the] strategic and public level to reduce misperception and cultivate trust and avoid strategic misjudgment.

I have heard many suggestions coming both from China and the U.S. about how the two countries should carry out some specific cooperation to give substance to the new type of great power relationship. I think, in order to put together some meaningful initiatives with sufficient impact, we need first to cultivate the habit and spirit of cooperation.

The Trans-Atlantic cooperation was, in essence, assistance by U.S. to support Europe -- and you also had a common enemy at that time. The 21st century China-U.S. Trans-Pacific cooperation will be between equals and based on mutual needs. Its success takes not only proactive efforts from both sides, but also mutual accommodation and compromise when necessary.

"The 21st century China-U.S. Trans-Pacific cooperation will be between equals and based on mutual needs."

Maybe we can identify some base lines of common interests and try to start working on them. Climate change is also of common interest. The key is real and equal cooperation in which there is give and take on both sides.