笨狼发牢骚
发发牢骚，解解闷，消消愁
【腾博】
Fake Invoice Doubts Revived as China Trade Skyrockets
Russia Seeks China Support for Rosneft, Blacklisted State Banks
Putin Deals China Winning Hand as Sanctions Power Rival
China-Russia is a match made in heaven, and that’s scary
Anatole Kaletsky May 22, 2014
（旧文）
中俄拟签定总值超600亿美元石油合约，凤凰网，2013年06月21日
中俄拟签总值超600亿美元石油合约，中国经济网，2013年06月21日
中俄签供油协议 俄将向中方出口2700亿美元原油，2013-06-22
【央台】
[国防军事] 《大家谈》 2014年合集
【个人自由】
Glenn Greenwald on TED: Why privacy matters
【亚太峰会习安会】
（2014-09-15）China to mend relations with neighbors before APEC summit: commentary
（经济学人，Oct 4th 2014）Japan and China Edging closer，Who’ll bet on a meeting soon between the leaders of China and Japan?
（经济学人，October 9, 2014）Japan And China Seeking A Limited Truce? – Analysis
（7 Oct 2014）Why a Xi-Abe Meeting Is Not Important
【中国，南亚、中东、东非】
【杂】
When to pull the plug on a dying startup company
【美国民众债务状况】
Total Nonrevolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NONREVSL
Securitized Consumer Nonrevolving Credit, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NREVNSEC
Total Revolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REVOLSL
Securitized Consumer Revolving Credit, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REVOLNSEC
Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSL
Securitized Total Consumer Loans, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSEC
Credit nation? HELOCs up 20.6% year-over-year
LET’S BORROW AGAINST OUR HOMES LIKE IT’S 2006
The Home ATM Is Back: HELOCs Surge To 2008 Levels
Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MVLOAS
Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SLOAS
Total Real Estate Loans Owned and Securitized by Finance Companies, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTRTM
Securitized Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SREACBM027NBOG
益博睿（中文网站）关于美国2014年第二季度美国汽车贷款报告。
参见：http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/meet-preferred-subprime-cars-ranking-most-popular-car-loans-and-leases-fico-score
《华人经济学家:美国人家庭平均收入到底多高？》
看来大家觉得这是好文，估计还权威，到处转载，说作者王健是美国达拉斯联邦储备银行高级经济学家，经济学博士。了不起。原文在哪，不知道。中国网站、博客转载（抄）他人的东西，别说出处，往往连作者是谁都不提，要命。
呵呵，看来我的美国私人财富创历史新高也不差，这是里面的插图：
做个笔记。
这是我的美国可支配收入图：
2013年底全国总（可支配）收入十三万亿两千六百六十九一美元（$13,266.9B），美国人口大概是三亿一千六百六十九万，故此2013年底人均美国可支配收入是四万一千九百九十六美元（41996，这是均值，不是中值）。一家四口也确实到了十六万多了，按美国人均家庭人口2.6人算，一家是十万九百一十一（10911）美元。无疑，如王文所说，均值不代表贫富分布。
王文接着说起美国人口统计局的美国人口五等分的收入数据。这里有两个初等错误。第一是王把美国经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）和人口局（Census Bureau）的数据混淆起来了。美国经济分析局说的是所有“可支配收入”，而人口局说的是正常收入。你把王文里的表格的五个数字平均一下，那是73767美元，远不是10911。两者的区别在于可支配收入包括政府救济，如社保、医保。顺便说说，美国政府救济分量很大，我在美国私人财富创历史新高一文里说了，数字也能看出来。我也反复说了，美国经济翻身，美国政府的经济救济是第一大因素。
第二，美国对中产阶级没有明确的定义，不知道“把收入位于40%到80%之间的家庭定义为中产”是否合适。比如中产阶级可指
The American middle class is a social class in the United States.[1][2] While the concept is typically ambiguous in popular opinion and common language use,[3]contemporary social scientists have put forward several more or less congruent theories on the American middle class. Depending on the class model used, the middle class constitutes anywhere from 25% to 66% of households.
上述的维基文资料挺多的。
“Sociologist Leonard Beeghley identifies a male making $57,000 and a female making $40,000 with a combined households income of $97,000 as a typical middle-class family.“
对比一下王说的”美国中产家庭的年收入大概在5万3千到8万4千美元之间“。
王还说”一些人认识美国的成功人士，就把美国夸成人间天堂，甚至编造美国看病上学不要钱的谎言。而另外一些人则片面强调美国负面现象，把美国形容成一个被富人把持，多数人苦不堪言的地狱“，同意，中国人的观点通常较极端。不过美国中产前景也不乐观，参见我的另一篇短文：
美国中产遥遥不见天日
【网站】
Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements
现在国内刊登、解读国外报道真快，不简单：
解读瑞信2014全球财富报告：最富的10%人口控制了各国多少财富？
2014-10-16 10:23:23
【香料包】
世界香料包
香料包配方
常见香料，常见香料
世界各地香料包产品
A Trip Around The World, By Way Of Seasonings
【你有钱吗？】
Richard E. Grant's Hotel Secrets
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-15/chinese-home-buying-binge-transforms-california-suburb-arcadia
【中、印、美总产值比较】
下面是一个分析。
| 总产值（万亿） | 总产值（万亿） | 总产值（万亿） | 总产值（万亿） | 总产值（万亿） | ||||||
| 中国一 | 9 | 印度一 | 1.7 | 印度二 | 1.7 | 美国 | 17 | 中国二 | 9 | |
| 2014 | 8.00% | 9.72 | 8.00% | 1.84 | 8.00% | 1.84 | 3.00% | 17.51 | 8.00% | 9.72 |
| 2015 | 7.50% | 10.45 | 8.00% | 1.98 | 8.00% | 1.98 | 3.00% | 18.04 | 7.60% | 10.46 |
| 2016 | 7.00% | 11.18 | 8.00% | 2.14 | 8.00% | 2.14 | 3.00% | 18.58 | 7.20% | 11.21 |
| 2017 | 6.50% | 11.91 | 8.00% | 2.31 | 8.00% | 2.31 | 3.00% | 19.13 | 6.80% | 11.97 |
| 2018 | 6.00% | 12.62 | 8.00% | 2.50 | 8.00% | 2.50 | 3.00% | 19.71 | 6.40% | 12.74 |
| 2019 | 5.50% | 13.32 | 8.00% | 2.70 | 8.00% | 2.70 | 3.00% | 20.30 | 6.00% | 13.50 |
| 2020 | 5.00% | 13.98 | 8.00% | 2.91 | 8.00% | 2.91 | 3.00% | 20.91 | 5.60% | 14.26 |
| 2021 | 4.50% | 14.61 | 8.00% | 3.15 | 8.00% | 3.15 | 3.00% | 21.54 | 5.20% | 15.00 |
| 2022 | 4.00% | 15.20 | 8.00% | 3.40 | 8.00% | 3.40 | 3.00% | 22.18 | 4.80% | 15.72 |
| 2023 | 3.50% | 15.73 | 8.00% | 3.67 | 8.00% | 3.67 | 3.00% | 22.85 | 4.40% | 16.41 |
| 2024 | 3.00% | 16.20 | 7.50% | 3.95 | 8.00% | 3.96 | 3.00% | 23.53 | 4.00% | 17.07 |
| 2025 | 2.50% | 16.60 | 7.00% | 4.22 | 8.00% | 4.28 | 3.00% | 24.24 | 4.00% | 17.75 |
| 2026 | 2.00% | 16.94 | 6.50% | 4.50 | 8.00% | 4.62 | 3.00% | 24.97 | 4.00% | 18.46 |
| 2027 | 2.00% | 17.27 | 6.00% | 4.77 | 8.00% | 4.99 | 3.00% | 25.71 | 4.00% | 19.20 |
| 2028 | 2.00% | 17.62 | 5.50% | 5.03 | 8.00% | 5.39 | 3.00% | 26.49 | 4.00% | 19.97 |
| 2029 | 2.00% | 17.97 | 5.00% | 5.28 | 8.00% | 5.82 | 3.00% | 27.28 | 4.00% | 20.77 |
| 2030 | 2.00% | 18.33 | 5.00% | 5.54 | 8.00% | 6.29 | 3.00% | 28.10 | 4.00% | 21.60 |
| 2031 | 2.00% | 18.70 | 5.00% | 5.82 | 8.00% | 6.79 | 3.00% | 28.94 | 4.00% | 22.46 |
| 2032 | 2.00% | 19.07 | 5.00% | 6.11 | 8.00% | 7.34 | 3.00% | 29.81 | 4.00% | 23.36 |
| 2033 | 2.00% | 19.45 | 5.00% | 6.42 | 8.00% | 7.92 | 3.00% | 30.70 | 4.00% | 24.30 |
| 2034 | 2.00% | 19.84 | 5.00% | 6.74 | 8.00% | 8.56 | 3.00% | 31.63 | 4.00% | 25.27 |
| 2035 | 2.00% | 20.24 | 5.00% | 7.07 | 8.00% | 9.24 | 3.00% | 32.57 | 4.00% | 26.28 |
| 2036 | 2.00% | 20.64 | 5.00% | 7.43 | 8.00% | 9.98 | 3.00% | 33.55 | 4.00% | 27.33 |
| 2037 | 2.00% | 21.06 | 5.00% | 7.80 | 8.00% | 10.78 | 3.00% | 34.56 | 4.00% | 28.42 |
| 2038 | 2.00% | 21.48 | 5.00% | 8.19 | 8.00% | 11.64 | 3.00% | 35.59 | 4.00% | 29.56 |
| 2039 | 2.00% | 21.91 | 5.00% | 8.60 | 8.00% | 12.57 | 3.00% | 36.66 | 4.00% | 30.74 |
| 2040 | 2.00% | 22.35 | 5.00% | 9.03 | 8.00% | 13.58 | 3.00% | 37.76 | 4.00% | 31.97 |
| 2041 | 2.00% | 22.79 | 5.00% | 9.48 | 8.00% | 14.67 | 3.00% | 38.89 | 4.00% | 33.25 |
| 2042 | 2.00% | 23.25 | 5.00% | 9.95 | 8.00% | 15.84 | 3.00% | 40.06 | 4.00% | 34.58 |
| 2043 | 2.00% | 23.71 | 5.00% | 10.45 | 8.00% | 17.11 | 3.00% | 41.26 | 4.00% | 35.97 |
| 2044 | 2.00% | 24.19 | 5.00% | 10.98 | 8.00% | 18.48 | 3.00% | 42.50 | 4.00% | 37.41 |
| 2045 | 2.00% | 24.67 | 5.00% | 11.52 | 8.00% | 19.95 | 3.00% | 43.78 | 4.00% | 38.90 |
| 2046 | 2.00% | 25.17 | 5.00% | 12.10 | 8.00% | 21.55 | 3.00% | 45.09 | 4.00% | 40.46 |
| 2047 | 2.00% | 25.67 | 5.00% | 12.71 | 8.00% | 23.27 | 3.00% | 46.44 | 4.00% | 42.08 |
| 2048 | 2.00% | 26.18 | 5.00% | 13.34 | 8.00% | 25.14 | 3.00% | 47.84 | 4.00% | 43.76 |
| 2049 | 2.00% | 26.71 | 5.00% | 14.01 | 8.00% | 27.15 | 3.00% | 49.27 | 4.00% | 45.51 |
| 2050 | 2.00% | 27.24 | 5.00% | 14.71 | 8.00% | 29.32 | 3.00% | 50.75 | 4.00% | 47.33 |
| 2051 | 2.00% | 27.79 | 5.00% | 15.44 | 8.00% | 31.66 | 3.00% | 52.27 | 4.00% | 49.22 |
| 2052 | 2.00% | 28.34 | 5.00% | 16.22 | 8.00% | 34.20 | 3.00% | 53.84 | 4.00% | 51.19 |
| 2053 | 2.00% | 28.91 | 5.00% | 17.03 | 8.00% | 36.93 | 3.00% | 55.45 | 4.00% | 53.24 |
| 2054 | 2.00% | 29.49 | 5.00% | 17.88 | 8.00% | 39.89 | 3.00% | 57.12 | 4.00% | 55.37 |
| 2055 | 2.00% | 30.08 | 5.00% | 18.77 | 8.00% | 43.08 | 3.00% | 58.83 | 4.00% | 57.58 |
| 2056 | 2.00% | 30.68 | 5.00% | 19.71 | 8.00% | 46.52 | 3.00% | 60.60 | 4.00% | 59.89 |
| 2057 | 2.00% | 31.29 | 5.00% | 20.70 | 8.00% | 50.25 | 3.00% | 62.41 | 4.00% | 62.28 |
| 2058 | 2.00% | 31.92 | 5.00% | 21.73 | 8.00% | 54.26 | 3.00% | 64.29 | 4.00% | 64.77 |
| 2059 | 2.00% | 32.55 | 5.00% | 22.82 | 8.00% | 58.61 | 3.00% | 66.22 | 4.00% | 67.36 |
| 2060 | 2.00% | 33.21 | 5.00% | 23.96 | 8.00% | 63.29 | 3.00% | 68.20 | 4.00% | 70.06 |
| 2061 | 2.00% | 33.87 | 5.00% | 25.16 | 8.00% | 68.36 | 3.00% | 70.25 | 4.00% | 72.86 |
| 2062 | 2.00% | 34.55 | 5.00% | 26.41 | 8.00% | 73.83 | 3.00% | 72.36 | 4.00% | 75.78 |
| 2063 | 2.00% | 35.24 | 5.00% | 27.73 | 8.00% | 79.73 | 3.00% | 74.53 | 4.00% | 78.81 |
【经济预测】
OECD（长期）
Main
Looking to 2060: Long-term global growth prospects
LOOKING TO 2060: A GLOBAL VISION OF LONG-TERM GROWTH
Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years
SHIFTING GEAR: POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS
Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years
Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years
IMF（短期)
Main
2014年4月西半球：Regional Economic Outlook
Regional Main
OCT 14:World Economic Outlook:Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties (World Economic and Financial Surveys)
Update
Annual Reports
彭博：Asia Stocks Decline After IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast
