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中国如何在变局中把握战略机遇

解放日报 2011-12-27 

主持人：本报记者 洪俊杰 

嘉宾：杨成绪（外交部政策研究室原主任），黄仁伟（上海社科院副院长） 

力量对比正在变化 

记者：党的十七届五中全会指出，“综合判断国际国内形势，我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期，既面临难得的历史机遇，也面对诸多可以预见和难以预见的风险挑战。”就当前国际形势而言，中央作出这一判断的依据是什么？ 

黄仁伟：我觉得五点可供参考。第一，2008年金融危机之后，西方出现结构性危机，这场危机将在相当长的时间内影响西方经济复苏。世界经济走势正发生变化，中国在全球经济中所占的比重、承担的经济增量越来越大。同时，西方对中国的依赖度进一步加深，从过去对中国商品的依赖，延伸至对中国资金的依赖，这种依赖已成为西方经济生存、财政运作的一个必要条件。西方需要很长时间来调整经济结构，在这期间很难脱离中国市场。这个基本方向不会变，经济形势的变化将决定其他变化。 

第二，关于全球治理的各项议题，中国所承担的责任、拥有的话语权在上升。中国与国际体系的关系，从过去体系外走入体系内，现在又从体系边缘走到体系中心；从过去不具有话语权到具有话语权，而如今拥有越来越重的话语权，这是中国从未有过的国际地位。当前最重要的全球治理议题有哪些？一个是货币金融，即美元、欧元、人民币几大货币间的关系；另一个是对全球资金的管理，即对融资、资金流向、金融工具的管理。这两个话题，之前西方是治理者，现在沦为治理对象，而中国在这些问题上担当的角色愈发重要。此外，关于开发低碳与新能源技术，西方由于财政困难，因此退缩不前，而中国在这一议题上却更加坚定。 

第三，当前中国周边环境进入较为有利的新阶段。由于亚洲的重要性空前提高，几乎所有大国都把战略重点移向亚洲，而这种“提高”恰恰是以中国为龙头所带动的。亚洲蕴藏着以中国崛起带动亚洲崛起的战略机遇，各个大国向亚洲集聚是为了抢占亚洲的战略机遇，而不是要在亚洲打一仗。确实，现在有些周边国家表现出对美国的“依赖”，这不足为奇，因为一个国家越是在经济上依赖某国，就越想在政治上从他国处得到平衡。但这种时间不会维持太长，因为美国经济本身也依赖中国、依赖亚洲，不可能为一点小争端就把整个亚洲发展的势头打断。因此，在亚洲地缘经济与地缘政治两元结构中，中国的地缘经济优势越来越突出，而这一优势终将逐渐转化为地缘政治优势。 

第四，中国在中东、非洲、拉美、中亚等地区拥有更大的战略空间。全球金融危机使这些地区对美欧的依赖度下降；而美国在全球战略收缩、重点转向亚太的同时，它在更多地区的影响力与控制力都在减弱。中国与这些地区国家开展广泛、深入的政治经济交往，所获得的战略周旋、迂回空间远比之前宽阔。因此，不能因为中国与周边一些国家存在争端，就误认为中国陷入战略被动。 

第五，目前，中国“软实力”处在上升阶段，中国道路、中国经验得到广大发展中国家的认同。在全世界处于极不稳定的状态下，中国以“和”为核心的价值观，变得非常有意义、有必要。当前，西方在经济上受到极大困难，他们寄希望于借助价值观、文化上的“软实力”，向发展中国家发起攻势。应该看到，一国“软实力”下降速度通常是慢于“硬实力”的，因此西方在“软实力”方面仍有优势，给人以中国被压制的感觉。其实，这是力量变化中的一个阶段，综合力量对比正在朝着有利于中国的方向发展。 

辩证看待利弊因素 

记者：2002年，党的十六大报告提出，“综观全局，二十一世纪头二十年，对我国来讲，是一个必须紧紧抓住并且可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期。”请您比较一下，未来十年中国面临的战略机遇期有哪些特点，与过去十年的战略机遇期有哪些区别？ 

杨成绪：中国第二个战略机遇期，挑战可能会比机遇多一点。美国加大对亚洲的投入，这势必引发整个亚太局势发生变化，国与国之间的关系会出现一系列问题，中国难以置身事外。美国明年将举行总统大选，政客们照例会拿中国说事，突出“中国威胁论”，因此防范与遏制中国的趋势将会加强。此外，中国步入国际舞台中心，世界更加关注中国，挑中国刺的会更多，对中国的要求会更多，对中国不服气、不满意的也会更多。我们要有心理准备。 

当然，机遇与挑战本身就是矛盾统一体，如果我们因势利导，挑战也可以转化成机遇。美国确实高喊“重返亚太”，但未必能得偿所愿。我判断，美国现在很大部分力量还在中东，华盛顿希望叙利亚尽快“变天”，不一定要使用武力，通过借助反对派压巴沙尔下台。如果大马士革易主，接下来就是对付“眼中钉”伊朗了。这一过程需要多少时间，目前难做判断，但掣肘美国战略东移，应该是肯定的。此外，美国在亚太搞《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》，但这并不代表华盛顿想要排斥中国，因为如果本地区贸易第一大国不参加，这一机制的作用将非常有限。 

黄仁伟：总的来说，过去十年中的一些有利因素正朝不利方向转化；但许多新的、更大的有利因素正在蓬勃涌现，我们应当辩证看待。 

首先，中国面对的国际经济环境不同。在第一个十年中，中国加入世贸组织，西方国家社会稳定、民生富庶，能够大量消化中国产品，而金融危机之后，西方繁荣不再，而三大经济火车头的同时熄灭，使发达经济体对中国商品的需求度下降，转而对中国资金的依赖度上升。中国经济的外部增长源发生变化。 

其次，中国周边的安全环境发生变化。自2001年“9·11”事件后，美国的战略重心锁定中东，第一目标是反恐，因此华盛顿没有更多时间与力量来顾及亚太。如今，美国战略重心向东亚、向西太平洋转移，尽快从中东、阿富汗等地撤出，其首要战略目标也重新定位为应对潜在大国威胁。美国一系列变化将影响中国的外部环境。 

第三，邻国看待中国的心态日趋复杂。过去，本地区国家“平视”中国，对中国的担心与猜疑比较少，中国与本地区发展中国家差距不大，而日韩更是遥遥领先。亚洲普遍认为，中国上升为亚洲主导力量还需时日。如今，随着中国成为世界第二、亚洲第一大经济体，周边国家对中国的忧虑明显上升。亚洲邻国的这种战略担忧与美国的战略重心转移结合，中国周边遇到的困难比以往多了。 

最后，中国需承担的国际义务与责任增加。过去，中国发展中大国的身份被普遍认可，国际社会用发展中国家的标准来要求中国，因此中国所承担的国际义务、国际责任不是很大。如今，国际上对中国的要求越来越高，中国表态愿为全球治理作出力所能及的贡献，但西方国家仍要求中国承担与其发展阶段不符的国际责任。 

因势利导化危为机 

记者：从国内国际两个大局综合考虑，中国今后该如何用好战略机遇期，促进自身发展；同时该做哪些努力，以巩固、延长宝贵的机遇期？ 

黄仁伟：就国内情况而言，能否抓住未来十年机遇期，取决于我国在结构等方面建设。如果能取得实效，相信外部挑战可以转化为中国的发展机遇。 

关于调整结构，首先，应努力扩大国内市场容量，弥补西方市场萎缩所带来的影响。这就需要优化国内利益、财富的分配政策，打通国内市场。一旦内需扩大，不仅可以补偿受金融危机影响的外部市场，中国市场将更具战略吸引力，全球经济要素将进一步流入。 

其次，要用好人民币汇率调整的契机。人民币汇率调整必须按照中国速度，而在此过程中，如果中国的出口竞争力没有上升，出口产品还徘徊在低端领域，那么调整带来的将是国际竞争力下降；反之，如果出口竞争力上升了，有利面就会显现：进口成本下降、全球购买力加强、国际投资能力提升。可见，是利是弊，取决于中国出口竞争力能否优化。 

最后，抓住新能源革命带来的机遇。低碳经济给中国发展提出了挑战，如果不能把旧有的能源结构、较低的能源效率做一较大改变，中国经济就难以持续发展。发展绿色经济、推进新能源技术，是中国发展的一条根本出路。当前，中国在一些清洁能源领域具有优势，如果整个中国经济都能朝这一方向转变，那么未来经济就被新能源技术所引领。 

杨成绪：展望未来十年中国外交，首要的任务还是集中力量谋发展。国际舞台上最终还要靠国家实力说话，过去十年中国国力提升很快，但还不够强大，人均国民生产总值排名仍然靠后。 

此外，在处理国际争端的时候，应该主要通过协商、对话的方式，努力缓和因为种种原因而产生的紧张关系。 

第三，继续做好睦邻工作。中国对周边邻国应该一视同仁，不能薄待任何一个国家，也不应该过分照顾一个国家。在处理双边关系时候，在坚持尊重他国主权独立、领土完整、不干涉内政的同时，鉴于以往经验，要防止任何一个中小国家过分依赖中国，这并不利于发展正常的国与国关系。 

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2011-12/27/content_14336395.htm 

China’s pivotal role in world economy in 2012

by John Ross, 2011-12-27

In 2012 the world economy will continue to struggle with the international financial crisis. There will be recession in Europe, world trade was already declining in September and October, and international commodity prices are falling sharply - a sensitive indicator of the state of the world economy. The only unknown is the severity of the slowdown - in particular, will the US be pulled into recession or merely continue to grow slowly, and by how much will the large developing economies such as Brazil, India and Russia decelerate? China’s premier Wen Jiabao predicted that next year’s international economic situation would be “complicated and tough.”

Entering a difficult situation, it is necessary to aim for the greatest possible accuracy in assessing the position of China in the global economy - this affects both the rest of the world and China. Frequently repeated statistics, such as that China’s is the world’s second largest economy, are insufficiently accurate to suffice for this. For reasons indicated below they underestimate the role of China in the world economy’s development and are not fine grained enough to accurately judge economic policy. Analysis shows China will play a pivotal role in the world economy in 2012 - Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill, who coined the term BRIC, said in the Financial Times: “While the financial and business world continue to hang on every twist and turn in eurozone politics, I think the biggest issue for the world in 2012 will be...China.”

The first reason for this is that China’s high growth rate results in its contribution to world economic expansion being much greater than its percentage of world GDP. In 2007, the last year before the international financial crisis, China accounted for only 6.3 percent of world GDP. But in the following three years the world economy expanded by $7.2 trillion while China’s economy grew by $2.4 trillion - i.e. China accounted for 33 percent of world growth. In contrast, in 2007 the US accounted for 25.1 percent of world GDP, but in the next three years the US economy grew by only $0.6 trillion. Therefore in the last three years China’s economy contributed four times as much to global growth as the US. The EU, to make a comparison, contracted by $0.7 trillion during the same period.

The second key factor is China’s financial role. The key feature of this is not, as is sometimes supposed, China’s $3 trillion foreign exchange reserves. These have been accumulated over a significant period and, because a large part is an emergency reserve, only a small amount can be utilized at any point. The key element is the finance China generates each year for investment – i.e. its total company, household and government saving. In 2007 US total finance generated for investment was $2 trillion and China’s was $1.8 trillion – that is, the US was slightly ahead of China. By 2010, under the impact of their economies, different responses to the crisis, total finance available for investment in the US was $1.6 trillion and in China $3.1 trillion – i.e. China’s finance available for investment is now almost twice that in the US, a dramatic change in three years.

Turning to international trade, US imports have still not regained pre-financial crisis levels. Taking a three-month average, to avoid distortion by purely short-term fluctuations, up to the latest available data, for October, US imports were an annualized $17 billion lower than the pre-financial crisis peak level in July 2008. Therefore in the last three years the US market for exports has contracted. In contrast, compared to the pre-crisis peak in July 2008, China’s imports from other countries have increased by an annualized $575 billion. China therefore now plays a much greater role as a market for increases in exports than the US.

Finally is the structural position China occupies in the changing pattern of the world economy. The Economist magazine recently emphasized that 2012 will see a fundamental change in the world economy: for the first time the majority of world imports will be by developing economies. In 2008-2010 low and middle income, i.e. developing, economies accounted for 78 percent of world economic growth.

China already carries out a majority of its trade with developing countries. In the three months ending in October, 54 percent of China’s trade was with developing economies - 49 percent of exports and 60 percent of imports. 

The rate of increase of China’s trade with developing economies is also significantly stronger than with developed economies. Between July 2008 and October 2011 China’s exports to developed economies rose by an annualized $107 billion and its imports from them by $145 billion. With developing countries, China’s exports rose by an annualized $143 billion and its imports by $204 billion. China was the hub of a rapid expansion of trade by developing economies.

This trade situation is directly linked to the new technological position China occupies in the world economy. A number of developing economies have passed from being merely suppliers of raw materials to exporting more technologically developed products – India’s success in software and Brazil’s in regional range aircraft are examples. But no other developing country has such a wide technological range of internationally traded products as China. Such trade originated in low technology labor intensive industries, spread through a rapidly widening range of medium technology products such as excavators, domestic goods and personal computers, up to the higher technology telecommunications equipment of Huawei and other companies.

This capacity of China to export across a wider range of the technology spectrum than any other economy creates its increasingly key position in world trade. China exports low, medium and some high technology products to developed economies, while its exports are increasingly on a higher technology level from the point of view of developing economies. China’s financial resources make it able to follow this widening range of exports with direct investment.

It is the combination of these features - the single biggest contributor to the increase in world GDP, the largest source of finance, the biggest potential increase in export markets for other economies - which results in China’s impact on the world economy being much greater than its pure percentage of world GDP. To put it in technical economic terms, developments at the margin, that is contributions to change, must be considered as well as averages.

Concerning the issues that will dominate 2012, China’s economy by itself is not yet large enough to pull the developed economies out of recession - although it can play a potentially significant role in collaboration with others. But in relation not only to Asia but to a widening range of developing countries the growth of China’s economy is crucial. As developing economies now contribute more to world economic growth than developed economies, this means that the success, or otherwise, of China’s economy for the global economy will be pivotal in 2012.

When the Chinese government states that the most important contribution China can make to the world economy is for its own economy to grow successfully they are not engaging in platitudes. They are articulating the truth.

John Ross is Visiting Professor at Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University. From 2000 to 2008, he was then London Mayor Ken Livingstone’s Policy Director of Economic and Business Policy.

【古风按】中国目前所面对的战略处境很像国共内战期间的战略相持阶段（1947年3月−1948年9月）。当时，国军在第一阶段（中共战略防御阶段，1946年6月−1947年3月）的全面进攻受挫后，开始集结重兵集团对陕北与山东中共根据地进行重点进攻。中共一方面主动放弃延安，通过运动战与游击战在陕北与胡宗南部进行周旋，拖住国军一大重兵集团；在山东主战场上，粟裕敢于在敌百万军中取其上将首级，在孟良崮战役中，全歼国军“王牌部队”整编74师，从而击退了国军的重点进攻；同时，刘邓部、陈粟部、陈（赓）谢（富治）部，三军挺进国军后方，形成品字战略态势，不仅大量牵制国军过半兵力，而且动摇国民党政府经济金融根基，从而为第三阶段的战略反攻（1948年9月−1949年12月）奠定了坚实的基础。国共内战期间的这一段历史为我们现在理解当下的中国提供了很好的参照体系。美国现在大力鼓吹“重返亚洲”、极力推动排除中国的TPP、高调屯兵澳大利亚等诸多事件走的还是当年国军对中共的重点进攻的老套路。这本身就很明确地说明：美国在前一阶段对中国的全面进攻（QE1、QE2和一直在搞的隐性QE3）中，没能有效实现把人民币汇率推高的战略目的。中国防守到目前的境地，已经很不容易了，也是全世界防守得最成功的。中国现在已经在大力开拓美国后院（中美洲和南美洲）、开拓非洲、开拓东南亚，就如同刘邓大军挺进大别山后，与陈粟部和陈（赓）谢部形成品字格局，将战线引入敌方地盘一样。2012年将是中国战略相持的关键年份，如果中国再能在国际货币战争的主战场上取得如同孟良崮战役那样的一个大胜利（比如作为帮助欧元度过难关的交换条件：欧元区大国开始大量购买中国国债，从而实际上奠定人民币的国际储藏货币的地位），美国对中国的重点进攻就只好偃旗息鼓了。古风在2011年岁末预计：整个世界的大决战就要拉开序幕了，好戏还在后面咧。