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现在的贸易逆差/顺差的计算方式可能不能全面反映谁是吃亏/获利方

(2019-05-12 17:01:56) 下一个

2018 年,在中国sale最多的,属于S&P 500的,前20个美国公司在中国的sale总和是$158.4B, 这其中多少是在中国产,中国卖,不算在美国对中国的贸易量中的? 反观有什么中国公司,能在美国产卖给美国,而不算中国对美国的贸易量? 几乎没有。 当然美国公司赚的钱美国大部分群众也获不了利。

所以贸易战的胜利可能也不能单单用现在的顺差/逆差计算方法来评估。也不能用金钱衡量。 美国的战略目标是什么? 让中国制造2025变成不可能。 中国的战略目标是什么? 不依赖这20个美国公司。 谁能达到自己的战略目标,谁就是这次贸易战的赢家。 希望美中能合作而不是对抗。

The 20 U.S. companies among the S&P 500 with the highest level of sales, in U.S. dollars, in China during the most recently reported full fiscal year, totaling $158.4 billion:

Company Ticker ‘China’ sales ($mil) Total revenue - most recent reported fiscal year ($mil) Share of sales in ‘China’
Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.39% $44,764 $228,572 19.6%
Intel Corp. INTC, -0.90% $14,796 $62,761 23.6%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM, +2.46% $14,579 $22,291 65.4%
Boeing Co. BA, +0.15% $11,911 $93,392 12.8%
Micron Technology Inc. MU, -0.84% $10,388 $20,322 51.1%
Broadcom Ltd. AVGO, -0.03% $9,466 $17,636 53.7%
Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO, +0.83% $7,650 $48,005 15.9%
Texas Instruments Inc. TXN, +0.40% $6,600 $14,961 44.1%
Procter & Gamble Co. PG, +1.70% $5,205 $65,058 8.0%
Starbucks Corp. SBUX, +0.67% $4,512 $22,384 20.2%
Western Digital Corp. WDC, -1.21% $4,271 $19,093 22.4%
Nike Inc. Class B NKE, +1.17% $4,237 $34,254 12.4%
3M Co. MMM, +0.33% $3,255 $31,657 10.3%
Skyworks Solutions Inc. SWKS, -1.29% $3,018 $3,651 82.7%
Applied Materials Inc. AMAT, -0.34% $2,746 $14,537 18.9%
TE Connectivity Ltd. TEL, +0.02% $2,414 $13,113 18.4%
Corning Inc GLW, +0.52% $2,230 $10,115 22.0%
Abbott Laboratories ABT, +0.04% $2,146 $27,390 7.8%
Cummins Inc. CMI, +0.03% $2,137 $20,428 10.5%
Amphenol Corp. Class A APH, +0.49% $2,067 $7,011 29.5%
Source: FactSet

As you can see, in a potential trade war with China there would be nowhere to hide even if you were invested in a broad index fund. Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.39% alone has a market value of nearly $845 billion, or 3.8% of the total value of the S&P 500.

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