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美国人出面了 钓鱼岛死结迎刃而解
我在钓鱼岛争端一开始，就写过博文，阐述为什么钓鱼岛打不起来的理由。从这两天的种种迹象来看，这个判断是正确的，钓鱼岛无战事也。于是我就揣测美国防长究竟和中日两国头头们谈了些什么。
今天，中日两国都放出风声，本月底的中国和日本将如期举行邦交正常化40周年纪念活动。既然大家还有心情搞纪念活动，说明两国政府和民间团体还很在乎中日之间的友好往来以及正常的关系，两国兵戎相见的可能性基本不存在。这就好比一对夫妻，刚刚吵了一架，外人看他们吵得那么凶，以为他们会马上离婚。可没想到，这对夫妻的结婚25周年纪念日到了，夫妻俩手挽手去宾馆大肆庆祝了一番，他们怎么可能离婚呢？
日本人是狡猾狡猾的，他们一方面说，日方实施“国有化”方针是为了对岛屿实施长期平稳且安定的管理，而不是要将钓鱼岛据为己有，中国不应该对此反应如此强烈。让人听起来，好像倒是中国人没搞清状况，反应过度。另一方面，日本政府到处放风，低三下四地说，要和中国沟通，寻求中方的理解，因为钓鱼岛“不存在主权问题”。
我们还记得，81年前，日本到中国和亚洲国家用兵，不也声称是为了“东亚共容”，而不是要侵略和奴役别人？所以，中国人民是不会上日本人的当的。中国政府必须要逼迫日本人让步，才能让全世界的中国人安心。
可是，眼下中国不想出兵。退一万步说，即使中国横了心要打，日本人也不会就犯。日本人如果让中国人有最后打钓鱼岛的借口，那就是日本和美国的双重失败。所以中国很硬了一下，日本就会变软一点，历史上屡见不鲜。
但日本会软到什么程度呢？中国能容忍到什么程度呢？中国和日本的底线到底在哪里？这才是最最关键的。无论如何，我不认为钓鱼岛会回到“购岛”闹剧发生前的状态。不管中日怎么妥协，日本政府不会自己打自己嘴巴，把购得的岛再卖回给原来的所谓“岛主”。
既然日本不能一退到底，那么用什么办法才能平息中国人的愤怒呢？我认为最佳方案是让美国介入。钓鱼岛当初就是美国交给日本托管的，是美国人留下的祸根。“解铃还需系铃人。”美国不如将钓鱼岛重新从日本政府手里“买”回去（当然这个钱日本人是不能向美国人要的，否则，美国纳税人可能有意见）。即从现在开始，钓鱼岛行政管辖权属于美国，但美国不从这个岛上得到任何好处。中国和日本却可以共同开发，但谁都不拥有它的主权。将来时机成熟了，中日之间不会再为这个钓鱼岛吵架了，美国再将此岛归还中国或日本。这样双方都没有吃亏，日本没占到便宜，中国人也就不那么难过了。
毕竟，时间在中国人民这边。
http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/worldlook/1/577669.shtml
SENKAKU/DIAOYU ISLANDS — The voyage to these remote islands at the center of one of Asia’s most dangerous territorial disputes is a bone-jarring seven-hour boat ride from one of Japan’s southernmost ports, a long enough journey that the fishermen who brave the often stormy seas regularly sail in pairs for safety. The trip from the mainland of China, which also lays claim to the islands, is even longer.
尖阁／钓鱼 列岛 － 位于亚洲领土争端最为激烈的水域之一。从日本最南端港口到达这里需要七小时的艰难航行，此地通常被附近渔民用以躲避风暴。从同样对此地宣称主权的中国大陆到达此地，甚至需要更长的时间。
It remains unclear how far the longstanding territorial conflict over the islands, known as the Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, could escalate now that it has flared again. China has in recent days tamped down protests that were seeming to slip beyond its control, and the two countries share deep economic ties that make the stakes of further escalation clear. But popular opinion in China has been unwilling to let the issue die, and a small group of nationalists in Japan has so far seemed unwilling to let go of an issue that helps define it.
Japan has also shown itself to be uncharacteristically strong-willed in pushing back at China’s vocal claims for the island chain long under Japanese control. While Japan’s pacifist tendencies since World War II have led it to generally avoid confrontations, China’s rising territorial ambitions appear to have changed the calculations of the country’s leaders, at least somewhat. In unusually strong remarks last month, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Japan had an “unwavering resolve to defend its territorial lands and waters.” Japanese leaders also increased Coast Guard patrols around the islands as China has dispatched more of its own boats.
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目前围绕这个被日本称为尖阁列岛，中国称为钓鱼岛列岛的漫长领土争端又一次被点燃，不知道事态最终会升级到何种程度。这两个有着深层紧密经济联系的国家，利益前景十分明朗，然而中国近日的频繁抗议似乎超过当局的控制。但是中国国内普遍认为不能让此问题消失，日本国内的一小撮民族主义者同样不想放手。
日本近日显示出不寻常的强势态度声明对列岛的实际控制，以对抗中国的口头抗议。尽管日本从二战以来奉行和平主义避免冲突，然而中国日益膨胀的领土野心在某种程度上影响了其领导人的决策。日本首相野田佳彦上月发表不寻常的强硬表态称日本：“又捍卫其领土和海域毫不动摇的决心”。日本同样派出更多的海上安保用以对抗中国最近发往列岛不断增多的船只。
On Thursday, at least a half-dozen armed Japanese Coast Guard cutters were visible patrolling waters around the islands, some of them sailing around Uotsuri.
Somewhere over the horizon, 16 Chinese surveillance ships — the largest number yet to gather nearby — had assembled to challenge Japan’s claim to the islands, according to the Japanese Coast Guard. In recent weeks, the two countries’ ships have been playing an almost cold war-style game of cat-and-mouse, with Chinese boats sometimes darting past the maritime boundary, pursued by the coast guard.
While Japan’s Coast Guard is committed to intercepting the Chinese patrols, it is also vigilant about preventing an episode that might further provoke China. Japanese nationals are barred from landing, for fear they might be photographed waving Japanese flags, as happened last month when nationalists swam from boats to Uotsuri without permission. (Their landing followed an earlier landing by Chinese nationalists.)
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在周四，日本海上保安厅发出至少六艘武装船只在列岛附近水域巡航，有些甚至靠近“鱼钓岛”。
日本海上保安厅声称，在同一海域，目前为止随大规模的十六艘中国海监船，集结并挑战日本对该列岛宣称主权。在仅仅两周时间内，这两个国家的船只似乎在玩冷战时期的“猫鼠游戏” ——中国船只有时勇闯过界，日本海岸警卫船舶则在后面追赶。
日本海岸警卫船舶在努力拦截中国船只的同时，也十分小心翼翼地避免进一步激怒中国。日本地民族主义分子被禁止登岛，因为害怕其挥舞日本国旗的场景被拍下，出现像上月因为一些民族主义分子非经许可登上“鱼钓岛”。（此举引起中国的保钓人士登岛）
The coast guard’s anxiety was apparent on Thursday, when a fishing boat from the island of Ishigaki, south of Okinawa, carrying three members of a small Japanese ultraconservative group and two journalists prepared to leave for a privately chartered trip to the islands. Even before the boat left, the passengers were summoned to a coast guard office to figure out their intentions.
“We have your promise, man-to-man, that you won’t go ashore, right?” one official asked, with a stern gaze, adding a warning about sharks circling the islands.
“Everyone’s really on edge because of the Chinese ships,” said the boat’s captain, Zensho Naka, 54, who said fishing charters to the islands were once common, and raised much less fuss.
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（日本）海岸警卫的紧张情绪十分明显。周四，日本一个极端保守组织的三名人士和两名记者准备私自从冲绳南部的石垣前往列岛。在出发之前即被海岸警卫传唤以弄清他们的动机。
“我们得到你们的口头允诺，一对一，你们不会登岛，对吗？”一名警员严肃的说，同时警告列岛附近海域有鲨鱼出没。
“每个人都因为中国船只而紧张，” 这艘船的船长说道，Zensho Naka，54岁，声称以前想获得在列岛附近海域的渔业许可十分容易。
Those tensions seemed to reach a new peak last week, as the coast guard braced for the arrival of 1,000 Chinese fishing boats that the Chinese news media had reported were on their way to stage a mass protest. The armada never materialized and appeared to be the creation of news media that hyped a routine departure of fishing boats.
The current tensions began earlier this year when the nationalist governor of Tokyo suddenly announced he wanted to buy three of the islands from their owner, a Japanese citizen living in suburban Tokyo, because he felt the government was not doing enough to defend the chain. That prompted the central government to buy them instead, which officials said was to prevent them from falling into radical hands.
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当（日本）海岸警卫因为上周中国新闻媒体报道1000艘渔船正出发前往钓鱼岛抗议，这种紧张情绪到达新高度。这次行动并为实现，这似乎是（中国）新闻媒体对于渔船例行出行的炒作。
这次的风波源于今年年初，东京都一名名族主义议员宣布希望购下钓鱼岛列岛中的三座岛屿，因为现居住在东京郊区的岛主曾觉得政府并未努力保护列岛。这反而促使了中央政府出面购下该列岛，官方宣称是为了保护岛屿不落入激进分子的手中。
But the decision to purchase was seen in China as a Japanese effort to firm up its control, setting off a week of violent anti-Japanese street demonstrations in dozens of Chinese cities. That is a lot of commotion over islands that until recently seemed a forgotten backwater. Even before World War II, there were few economic activities on the islands. A small factory on Uotsuri made dried bonito shavings, a favorite Japanese food, and hunters gathered albatross feathers for European fashion boutiques.
At that time, the factory owner had bought four of the five islands from the government, which showed little interest in them. After the factory closed in 1940, the factory owner’s son held onto the islands until the 1970s and early 1980s, when, aging and childless, he sold them off one by one to a family friend, Kunioki Kurihara, who recently sold three of them to the government. His family still owns one that it rents to the national government. That island, and the fifth one already owned by the national government, were both used for bombing practice by the United States military until 1978.
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但是这项决定却被中国视为日本在努力加强控制，引发了在中国十数个城市长达一周的暴力反日游行。这个之前被一直遗忘的偏远地方在近期引发了大量骚动。就算在二战前，列岛上也只有极少的经济行为。鱼钓岛上曾有一个小型的生产一种日式美食鲣鱼干的工厂，也有为欧洲的精品店提供信天翁羽毛的猎人。
在那段时间内，这个工厂的厂主从政府手中购买了列岛五座岛屿中的四座，后者当时对列岛并没有表现出太大兴趣。工厂在1940年关闭之后，厂主的儿子保留了岛屿的所有权直到七十年代，八十年代初期，因为年老无子，他将岛屿一座一座地转卖给一位家族友人栗原弘行，后者近期将列岛中的三座卖给了政府。他的家族将剩下的一座岛屿租给国家政府，加上政府本来拥有的一座岛屿，这五座岛屿被美军用作靶场直到1978年。
Interest in the islands rose in the late 1960s, when scientists began saying the nearby seafloor could hold oil deposits.
The current rise in tensions was evident during the recent trip to the islands, when a coast guard ship trailed the ship carrying the journalists and nationalists, even after extracting promises that no one would make a break for the islands. As the ships were about three miles from Uotsuri, the coast guard demanded the charter go no further.
The three nationalists said they planned to make their point about the need to defend the islands against China by posting a short documentary of their trip on YouTube. “We must draw the line with the Chinese here,” said the leader, Hissho Yanai, 50, who heads the 80-member Association to Protect Our Children’s Future from Chinese Intimidation based in Saitama, just north of Tokyo. “If we let them have the Senkaku Islands, they’ll come after all of Okinawa next.”
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1960年代，当科学家声称此列岛附近的海床可能有石油储备，对钓鱼岛的兴趣才被激发出来。
有证据表明造成近期的紧张局势，起因是（日本）海岸警卫在得到不会登岛的口头允诺之后，依然出动了一艘载着记者和名族主义人士的船只前往该岛屿。当距离“鱼钓岛”三英里处，海岸警卫坚称不能再前进。
船上的三名民族主义人士说他们计划通过把登岛过程拍成一个纪录短片并上传至Youtube网站，以此对抗中国。“我们必须给中国再这里划一条线，” 50岁的Hissho Yanai说道。这名八十名会员的协会会长说他们要保护日本儿童在将来不受中国恐吓，这个协会位于东京北部的琦玉县。“如果我们让他们得到尖阁列岛，他们会想要整个冲绳。”
After the coast guard stopped the ship, the three men stepped on deck to perform a ceremony. With the island looming in front of them, one man held the Japanese flag while Mr. Yanai read a warning against invading the islands addressed to the man expected to be China’s next leader, Xi Jinping. The third member filmed the performance.
Mr. Yanai finished with a deep bow toward the island. The man holding the flag then faced the watching coast guard crew, clipped his heels together and crisply saluted in the style of Japan’s prewar military.
“Thank you very much!” yelled the man, Hideto Sato, 51. “Please continue the tough job of protecting the Senkaku Islands!”
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在海上警卫停船之后，这三名人士走到甲板举行了一个庆祝仪式。在前方隐约出现的钓鱼岛前，一名人士高举日本国旗，Yanai先生则宣读了对入侵列岛的警告，直指中国的下一任领导人，XJP。整个过程则被另一人记录下来。
Yanai先生最后对着岛屿深深的鞠了个躬。这个男子举着国旗然后面向并注视着海岸警卫船员，叩紧鞋跟干脆利落地行了一个日本战前的军礼。
“非常感谢！” 50岁的Hideto Sato高声道。“请继续完成保护尖阁列岛的艰难任务！
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通篇都阴阳怪气，其中第一段最无耻到极致，“从日本最南端港口到达这里需要七小时的艰难航行，此地通常被附近渔民用以躲避风暴。从同样对此地宣称主权的中国大陆到达此地，甚至需要更长的时间。”日本最南端港口为什么不给出名字？因为没脸给出来，故意的混淆视听，让世人有钓鱼岛离日本本土更近的错误观念。哪有这样不公正的？大家用百度地图艘钓鱼岛，钓鱼岛分明靠近中国，离日本本土四岛远太多了。新闻里这句，大陆需要更长时间这个结论是如何得出的？中国以大陆为坐标，那日本就该用它的本土四岛为坐标，凭什么对日本就用它最南端的岛来当坐标，对中国就不用彭佳屿或其他岛来当坐标？新闻里对大陆还用到“even甚至”。缺德昧良心不怕天雷劈？
钓鱼岛解了吗？别说美国出面，就是出棺材有不顶用，伊拉克解了吗？阿富汗解了吗？
美国现在的心态，就是捣乱有余，解纷不足；美国现在的实力，则是捣乱或有余，解纷总不足。
40国家反美，不符合事实，只能说四十个国家中有很小一部分人反美。
这个没错。中日开战，全世界都承担不起，所以不会开战。
同感!
中国以后必然会严厉的教训日本的!
其实,只要中国战斗意志强,是可以打一仗的!
大打! 美国不会派兵参战,但是它会帮日本忙,...战果,必须是: 日本全灭, 中美都元气大伤, ...
凤凰网新闻http://news.ifeng.com/photo/hdnews/detail_2012_09/22/17820990_0.shtml#p=3
最痛心的是日本人登岛了中国还不知道
http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/worldlook/1/576230.shtml
...
在等个(5)年,情形会渐渐改变的!
美国现在有大问题了!
有(40)个国家在反美!
奇怪! 中国的新闻都不报道呢????????
日本警察已经登岛了
文章来源: 星岛日报
美国国务院东亚助卿坎贝尔20日在国会指出，日本拥有钓鱼岛的行政管辖权，适用《美日安保条约》。但他同时表示，日本与中国应以和平方式化解争议，否则升高冲突，不但不利于亚太区域的稳定，且全世界都承担不起。
美国联邦参议院外交委员会针对南海及东海争议举行听证会。坎贝尔作证时没有提及日本的购岛行动，而是对中国爆发大规模反日示威活动表达关切。「坦率地讲，我们对最近的示威以及日、中伙伴关系在这种情势下严重受损的可能性感到关切」。他表示，这种情势「不符合我们的战略利益；显然会伤害整个亚太的和平与稳定」。
坎贝尔重申美国立场，表示对钓鱼岛最终主权谁属不持立场，但美国承认日本对这几个岛屿拥有行政管辖权，因此美国据此认定钓鱼岛「明显归在《安保条约》第5款之下」。不过他同时表示，在当前情势下美方希望维持安全与稳定，不多谈特殊及复杂的细节。他说，美国政府已经明确表示希望日、中方透过对话和平解决东海争议。
他说，中日冲突可能继续升高，从而危及亚太地区整体和平稳定与美国利益。他几度说美方希望东京和北京的对话和互动能持续，以和平方式化解争议。他表示，在当前全球形势下，欧洲经济不振，美国的景气仍在挣扎，如果中、日之间的冲突酿成亚太危机，后果不堪设想，「我们的经济，亚洲、欧洲、以及世界其他地区的经济都可能面临未知的后果；世界无法承担」。
数日来在华访问的美国防长帕内塔20日下午结束访华。帕内塔当天上午抵达青岛，访问了海军北海舰队司令部，参观海军新型护卫舰和潜艇。他在参观时表示，中方的安排给他留下了深刻印象。希望两国海军加强交流与合作，不断增进瞭解和信任。
美国一直就没走啊。
这就不知从何说起了。这没法比。
但真要动武的时候，美国还是灭火器。
美国要达到最大利益，就要让中日斗而不破，都和美国做朋友。
还特高兴，就因为，别人拿到的票子，是自己数的，还是崭新新的。
是不是美国人民都这样？
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这是什么混蛋话啊!
该死!