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Relief rally, not impressive close (6/9/2011)
(2011-06-09 13:15:29)
Marketralliedtodayhoweverstilllotsofsellingneartheclose.Volumeisstilllow.Notsoimpressive.
Markthisasfirstattemptrally.In4-7days,lookingforaconfirmrallytomarkmarketasinrallymode(IBDmethodology).Ifwegottheconfirmation,thenstarttobuystocks.
AAPLisnotuptoday.Actually,growthstocksarenotupmuch.Butdefensivestocksareupbigtoday.Soevenpeoplegetbackin,theyliketobemoredefensive,lessrisk.
US$isupal...[阅读全文]
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Charting the market (6/6/2011)
(2011-06-06 13:23:20)


1300wasbroken.Projecteddownsideis1250-1260(200MA).Marketisoversold.Butprepareforanotherdipinnextfewdays.Thenweprobablyshouldlookforreversals(reliefrally).Today'sshort:NFLX.WecancomfortablesaythatNFLXreachedneartermtop.Downsidetargetisbetween$245-250.US$couldreboundinnextfewdays,weshouldexpectcommodityrelatedsharestohaveanotherdipfromcurrentlevel.AlsoexpectTechstohaveanotherdiptoo.Iwouldliketo...[阅读全文]
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A terriable day (6/1/2011)
(2011-06-01 13:07:06)
Marketlostentirelastweek'sgaintoday.Alleconomydataaroundtheglobeareverydisappointing.Mostmytrailingstopsweretakenouttoday.Shortpositionsarerunningintobiggains.Toughmarket.Getusedtorunalong/shortportfolio.[阅读全文]
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Charting the market (5/31/2011)
(2011-05-31 14:41:16)


Therearesomegoodnewsandbadnews.Goodnews:weareofftheneartermdowntrend.Itmakesitmorelikeabullflagwhichispositive.Badnews:weareattheneckagainandvolumeisstilllowontoday'srally.Themostannoyingthing:werallyonweak$again,sameoldold...ItalsohappensonthelastdayofMay.Aswenoticebefore,whenAAIIbullishsentimentislessthan30%,arallyusuallyfollowsoon.Thistimeisnodifferent.Accordingtopreviousexperience,theresh...[阅读全文]
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Market found some support
(2011-05-26 14:13:18)

Marketfoundsomesupporteventhoughwehadmanybadnewstwodaysinarow.Thisisratherbullish.
AAIIbullishsentimentislowat25%.Usuallyindicatesneartermbottominthemarket.However,weneedsomegoodnewsformarkettorally.Fornow,itisstillinashorttermdowntrend.Lotsofuncertainties.
Butinvestorsshouldstarttobuysomepositionsinheavilysoldsectorespeciallyenergysector.

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Charting the market (5/23/2011)
(2011-05-23 13:31:40)

Marketissoldoffheavilyinthemorningandcouldnotrecoverintheafternoon.
ThenextsupportforS&P500is1300whichisnottoofaraway.Marketisonceagainintooversoldzone.AAIIbullishsentimentwillhitanotherlowthisweek.Inlasttwoyears,wheneverWm%RorSTOetc.TAindicatorsgetintooversoldzone(itmaydipintoheremultipletimes),andAAIIbullishsentimenthitslows,somesortofrallythatfollows.GivingthattherearemanyuncertaintyinE...[阅读全文]
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Relief rally (5/18/2011)
(2011-05-18 10:13:00)

Marketisinreliefrallymodetodayleadingbycommodityrelatedshares.S&P'sinverseH/Sbreakoutwasfailed.Nowmarketgoesbacktoretesttheneck.Failtobreakoutagainindicatesfurtherweaknessisdowntheroad.ThetradingreferenceisS&P1318(yesterday'slow).
SilverandCrudeoilarelikelytotradeinarange.Breakeithersideoftherangeisnotlikelytoholdtoolong.Iwouldsellthisboundin2-3dayssinceUS$'sA-B-Ccounterrallydoesn'tsee...[阅读全文]
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Prepare for another wash out (5/16/2011)
(2011-05-16 16:44:45)
MarkettumblesagaintodayleadingbyhighmultipletechssuchasAMZN,NFLX,etc.Thisisanotherindicatorthattherewillbeanotherwashoutcominginthefuture.
Aftermarket,therearereportsthatsomeverysmartbignamesliquidatedtheircommoditiesnamesandfinancialnames.Thisindicatesthatcommodityselloffisstillongoingandfarfromover.
SincethebreakoutofS&Phasfailed.Itishighprobabilitythatwemightseequiteabitofdownside...[阅读全文]
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Charting the market (5/11/2011)
(2011-05-11 14:16:53)

Marketissoldofftodayleadbycommodities.
Afterhour,theyraisedmarginrequirementforgasoline.Looksliketherearequiteabitroomforthesecommoditytofall(theywillbringcommodityrelatedshareswiththem).
Multinationalstocksarealsohurtbecauseofuptick$.
Thisis2ndtimemarketteststhebreakout.Failedbreakoutusuallycausesbigdownturn.Weneedtobecarefulaboutfurtherselloffs.
Defensivenamesareholdingwelltoda...[阅读全文]
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Friday Job Data is Better than Predicted (5/6/2011)
(2011-05-06 06:39:56)
JobDataisbetterthanpredicted(inshortterm,itdoesn'tmatterifthisdataisfakedornot).Marketwasnervousaboutthisespeciallywhencommoditieswassoldoffheavily.
S&PtestedthebreakoutpointofinverseH/Syesterday(seemypreviouschart).Iwouldsayitissuccessful(althoughstillneedtogiveitafewdaystoconfirm).
SinceO8obviouslyispreparingforhisre-election,Ithinkweneedtochangeourinvestingstrategyinnearterm.
...[阅读全文]
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