船运股SB和SBLK: 中国商务部已经发言,承认白宫对川习会结果的表述。中国的让步是没有疑问的,所以现在的下跌非常过分。股指早上探底后回来不少,利空已经出了这么多,我试着喊一个阶段底。如果12月加息,华尔街的说词就是"priced in",如果不加息,就是"upside surprise"。
Trump此前的强硬表态是看到了中国对谈判结果的表述吞吞吐吐,想进一步施压。但是,种种迹象表明这次老习知道了深浅,是真的想明白了。此前蓬皮奥在北约点名中国,俄罗斯,伊朗为"bad actor",加上此次美国对华为的行动,使得市场担心美国会对中国变本加利引起中国的反弹,所以才有此反应。不过我认为,贸易战的走向基本不会改变了,老习已经看清其中厉害。但是由于中美对抗的态势已经形成。中美关系再也回不到以前了。川习会上双方热情的言辞基本上就是外交词令了。
像SB这样的小盘股,一旦大盘上升趋势确定,则几步就会窜回去。SBLK有最近公布的回购托底,也应该在这里止跌了。
受中国立即购买美国农产品（包括Panamax级别货船运载的大豆和谷物）的消息刺激，船运价已经 连续三天上涨：
Today, Thursday, December 6 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 43 points, reaching 1339 points.
Wednesday, December 5 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 59 points, reaching 1296 points.
Tuesday, December 4 2018, the Baltic Dry Index climbed by 34 points, reaching 1237 points.
Monday, December 3 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 28 points, reaching 1203 points.
Chinese officials have begun preparing to restart imports of U.S. soybeans and liquefied natural gas, the first sign confirming the claims of President Donald Trump and the White House that China had agreed to start buying some U.S. products “immediately.”
Australian coal exports from the key harbour of Newcastle slid by 28% over the course of November to 7.1m tonnes amid the start of Chinese import restrictions, port data showed. （这个对BDI施压不少，希望元旦后中国的进口煤会开放新的额度）
