美國試圖主導世界的努力正在瓦解?! 面對美國的歇斯底里 中國領導人為了大格局自我克制 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V11VCZqxP-4&t=90s&ab_channel= 美國沒有B計劃,它只有A計劃,而A計劃包含主宰世界,那越來越不在其掌控之中 (請你用一個字形容2023年?) 對我而言 那個字絕對是加薩和巴勒斯坦 我認為 雖然它沒有改變世界前進的軌跡 但大大加速了世界在某一軌跡上的進程 那是什麼軌跡? 從本質上講 這是美國 試圖控制世界各地事件的軌跡 簡言之就是控制整個世界 正在迅速瓦解 這在與俄羅斯的戰爭中已經變得很明顯 以烏克蘭為代理人進行 因為無論美國和歐洲 在美國的鼓勵下 向烏克蘭投入了多少金援 無論他們提供了多少武器 他們都不可能 幫助烏克蘭打敗俄羅斯 記住 這次嘗試 通過代理人對俄羅斯發動戰爭 是在輕率的假設下進行 他們將打敗俄羅斯人 並削弱俄羅斯經濟 把它炸回到石器時代 把盧布變成碎石 以及所有這些言論 實質上 你可能還記得 在2021年秋天 美國就在兩件事發生之後 從阿富汗撤軍 這對美國來說是如此不光彩 還有梅克爾夫人不再擔任德國總理 一旦這兩件事結束 美國開始嘗試 把俄羅斯削弱 迫使其屈服 完全相信俄羅斯不會發起 任何形式的軍事行動 但俄羅斯發動了 這就是美國戰略開始瓦解的開始 戰略瓦解已經發生了 但我認為事實是 隨著巴勒斯坦人在加薩的抵抗最終爆發 美國試圖主導世界的努力正在瓦解 在很多方面都在發生 首先 很明顯美國 第一件事是 從某種意義上說 美國轉向亞洲的戰略 並沒有奏效 我的意思是什麼? 我的意思是 當美國決定 是時候擺脫了 他們在中東承擔的承諾和義務 開始關注中國 這就是他們非常想做的事情 他們認為美國的主要競爭威脅來自中國 但從某種意義上說 這迫使他們將注意力 能源 資源重新放在中東 這是一個他們甚至無法控制的中東 因為他們甚至無法控制以色列 更不用說其他任何人了 一方面 以色列表現得像一個流氓國家 美國被迫懇求以色列說 不要輕舉妄動 這只是因為他們知道 他們正在輸掉世界輿論的戰鬥 他們懇求以色列 並提出要求 但他們也沒有成功 而同時 儘管過去幾十年來做出了所有努力 他們還是無法讓該地區的阿拉伯國家 站在以色列一邊 他們看到的是 阿拉伯國家雖然沒有 在局勢中進行任何軍事干預 但他們也站在巴勒斯坦人一邊 原因非常簡單 沒有一個阿拉伯政府 無論他們多麼想與以色列親近 都承擔不起站在以色列那邊而招致反感 即使他們是一個相當專制的政府 這就是第一點 第二點是 我想說的是 我稱之為地緣政治經濟學的原因 因為我認為 經濟和政治權力是密切相關的 正如我們在中國的例子中所看到的 但無論如何 就美國而言 情況恰恰相反 主要是經濟弱點帶來政治弱點 但我們也將看到加薩發生的事情 將使經濟管理在選舉年變得更加困難 例如 聯邦儲備委員會宣稱 它已經贏得了對抗通膨的戰鬥 它已經發出信號 將降低利率 但我想說 我會非常仔細地觀察這一點 原因非常簡單 自1980年代以來 通貨膨脹已經持續上升超過20年 不是因為聯邦儲備委員會的規模 壓制通膨主要是美國仍能 迫使世界上大部分地區 不是全部 而是大部分地區 持續供應廉價商品 但這種安排已經瓦解 這表示 這也是美國帝國主義的主要目的之一 不斷獲得廉價商品 廉價勞動力 所有這些都將不再奏效 食品和燃料價格正在上漲 製成品價格也在上漲 正如我們在加薩局勢中看到的那樣 它導致紅海 蘇伊士運河運輸走廊的中斷 這表示運往歐洲 美國等地的商品 成本大幅增加 這只是眾多加劇通貨膨脹的 不確定性因素之一 最後我想說 自從維持美元作為世界貨幣 一直是美國的主要目標之一 我想說 在2023年 我們開始看到這一基礎的動搖 尤其是隨著加薩衝突 我們看到的是 世界正在聯合起來反對美國 並且越來越能夠找到方法 石油生產地區 和其他金磚國家今天將走到一起 伊朗 沙烏地阿拉伯等 都屬於金磚國家聯盟 我認為在俄羅斯主席任期內 這一進程也將加速 基於所有這些原因 我想說 加薩事件 哈瑪斯的行動 和巴勒斯坦人的行動 提醒世界 他們非常緊迫的問題仍未解決 以色列的壓迫只會增加 這個提醒是2023年的決定性事件 (美元體系會立即崩潰還是緩慢瓦解?) 我不是一個喜歡打賭的人 我會說兩種可能性都存在 逐步瓦解已經在發生 美元作為主要儲備貨幣的地位正在下降 越來越多的交易發生在美元體系之外 但我會關注2到3個方面 第一 這整個通膨問題 與美元體系直接相關 因為它把美聯儲置於兩難境地 一方面 在過去20年裡 美聯儲一直實行寬鬆的貨幣政策 這表示 所有這些金融結構 都建立在該政策基礎之上 加息威脅到美國的金融穩定 這對美元體系有直接影響 因為以美元計價的巨大膨脹的金融體系 總部設在美國 在過去20年裡 從歷史上看 發揮了吸引全球資金流入的作用 只要這些投資者想賺快錢 2008年之後 這種熱錢已經大幅減少 如果有進一步的動盪 我們已經在2023年春季看到了一些動盪 隨著矽谷銀行和其他幾家銀行的倒閉 如果通膨持續 美聯儲不得不維持高利率 甚至可能進一步加息 那麼這些金融結構將崩潰 那將意味著美元體系的可信度將動搖 因為所有美元體系的支持者 那些說美元體系運行良好的人 他們直說美國金融市場廣大而深厚 美國金融市場很快就會顯得 非常淺薄和狹窄 從這個意義上說 我們將看到這種狀況 另一方面 如果美聯儲決定 維護金融穩定 不加息 它將面臨嚴重問題 因為通膨本身將削弱美元的價值 在這兩種情況下 它都處於進退兩難的境地 這是其一 另一件事是 我認為他們不能指望通膨不會繼續 因為美國的實力正在日益減弱 將無法迫使世界其他地區屈服 以低價提供大宗商品 製成品和勞動力 而這正是美國在過去40多年裡 受益的大國地位 (俄羅斯是如何在西方制裁下倖存的?) 最近發生這種情況 最深層次的原因是美國和西方精英 總體上生活在過去 他們認為 與世界其他地區相比 他們的相對實力仍然像過去一樣強大 但這已不再是事實 這就像一個認為手中握有強大武器的人 但他們有的只是一把水槍 你瞭解了這個比喻之後 讓我談談具體原因 首先 制裁本身一直非常參差不齊 我這樣說是什麼意思呢 他們試圖以這樣的方式設計制裁 使本國現有企業 無論是美國 德國 還是加拿大 都不會受到過度傷害 這表示很多這些企業繼續與俄羅斯做生意 只是因為他們不想傷害它們 其次 俄羅斯已經能夠 非常迅速地重建其經濟 記住 它有一個很長的準備期 因為第一輪制裁 是在2014年事件之後實施的 俄羅斯已經面臨農業制裁 從2014年開始 俄羅斯設法扭轉了其農業經濟 使其今天成為穀物 化肥等的主要出口國 這種經驗已經存在 俄羅斯已經能夠從事一種 進口替代的工業化形式 而且它在這方面做得非常出色 我認為政府已經做到了 我想說 綜合起來 西方切斷世界其他地區的能力 已經不像過去那麼強大了 事實是俄羅斯 在這個問題上採取了積極主動的立場 它已經能夠抵消這些制裁 金融制裁的問題仍然存在 但事實再次證明 特別是... 如今金融制裁只對那些 非常渴望融入其中的國家才重要 要你的資本主義階級 非常渴望參與美國金融部門的賭場 如果你不想參與其中 你可以組織你的貿易 甚至是在美國金融體系 範圍之外的投資關係 為什麼呢 因為美國金融體系實際上 並不是為了促進貿易而存在的 其實 它通過人為地提高美元等的價值 扭曲了貿易和投資關係 當然 還有在其中引入波動等 另一個原因是 從歷史上看 這個體系是被創造出來的 例如 通過要求其他國家取消資本管制 這樣他們國家的富人 就可以參與這些類似賭場的安排 這個體系的創建是通過 對那些人口的國家說 柯林頓政府會對那些國家說 如果你取消資本管制 對你很有好處 因為你會得到急需用於 生產投資的資本 但實際上 這從未發生過 流入這些取消資本管制國家的 唯一的一種資金 是短期資本 它不是用於生產性投資 而是用於從事投機活動 快速獲利然後離開 這當然也是非常不穩定 具有破壞性的 它導致了金融危機等 說實話 世界不需要美元體系 世界不需要美國金融體系 基於所有這些原因 我想說美元體系很快就會瓦解 (中美關係將如何發展?) 中國慶祝一帶一路倡議10週年及其成功 我認為這是一件重要的事 我認為拉丁美洲的事件 特別是 美國被迫軟化其立場 對委內瑞拉的態度 是另一件非常重要的事 我認為金磚國家 五個新成員國加入金磚國家 而說到委內瑞拉 有可能在2024年 俄羅斯主席任期內 新的國家 包括委內瑞拉等國將加入金磚國家 所有這些都將是非常重大的發展 我還想說 其他重要的發展是 美國和中國之間的對抗加劇 雖然我們已經看到某些事態發展 美國高級官員訪華 甚至習主席和拜登總統舉行會晤 但會晤結束不久 整個局勢就開始瓦解 所以目前情勢一點都不明朗 美國在許多不同方面留下了問題 與中國的問題關係遠未解決 2022年6月 習近平主席與拜登總統 在印尼的那場會議間隙見面 中美關係看似可望改善 我忘了是哪一個 我想是G20峰會 然後 所有人都期待會有良好的關係 但隨後美國對間諜氣球歇斯底里 一切都發生了變化 但我想說 在整個過程中 美國的行為不負責任 挑釁 粗魯 而且以它無法維持的方式 因為美國威脅要做一些事情 但實際上做不到 沒有後盾可以支持它 另外 習主席及其政府和外交官 以及所有與美國打交道的人 以一種非常不同尋常的方式 在面對挑釁時保持冷靜 不把它當作個人侮辱 即使美國表現得很無禮 也要保持冷靜 因為他們知道世界和平的前景取決於他們 我想說 中國有很好的理由感到自豪 為中國的政府 主席 外交官感到自豪 因為我認為這普遍是他們維持的態度 他們考慮到更大的局面 你不能在美中之間製造一種戰爭局勢 而不危及世界和平 他們考慮到了更大的格局 他們的行為極其負責任 正如我所說 他們有極大的自制力 在繁榮社會的世界裡 中國很高興成為其中一員 美國則恰恰相反 一方面它組織內部經濟如此糟糕 以至於無法打敗中國 中國將打敗美國 除非 美國的經濟政策發生180度大轉彎 但我們看不到這種前景 與此同時 因為美國不能靜靜地照顧好自己 為了與中國競爭 正試圖阻撓中國 我們看到的就是這一點 而且美國越來越常試圖這麼做 不可避免的是 如果美國真的設法挑起對抗 它不一定會贏得那場對抗 它不一定能成功阻撓中國 當然 它可能讓中國倒退一兩年 但最終 美國沒有能力打贏戰爭 美國都無法對抗 像阿富汗 伊拉克或利比亞這樣的國家 它怎麼可能與像中國 這樣強大的國家對抗呢 這完全是胡扯 但不幸的是 就像我經常說的 美國沒有B計劃 它只有A計劃 而A計劃包含主宰世界 那越來越不在其掌控之中 但由於沒有明智的聲音說 各位 我們不需要這個 我們可以像其他優秀的國際公民一樣 我們這國家可以好好照顧自己 而美國顯然做不到 如果你看看貧困水平 不平等 無家可歸 缺乏醫療保健等 但美國不願意解決這些問題 反而想要捲入這種毫無意義的競爭 這只能以失敗告終 我們只希望 看到像習近平所表現出的克制 我還要說 普丁總統最終將會勝利 他們不會導致任何不必要的戰爭 我們甚至可能戰勝美國最惡劣的挑釁 給世界它為追求發展所需的和平 最後 我想我記不清具體是 2023年還是前一年發表的 但中國提出的各種政策文件 全球安全倡議 發展倡議等等 這些文件也為 正在出現的多極世界秩序提供了 一個非常重要的指導方針 因為這是美國實力瓦解的另一面 世界秩序正在為各國選擇發展 並發展本國創造更大空間 (2023年最令人難忘的人物是誰?) 這是一個難回答的問題 因為多極世界的重點是 權力在體系中被分散 從這個意義上說 我認為關注單一個人是困難的 但無論如何 既然我說了加薩 我想說作為一種人格 是巴勒斯坦 我認為巴勒斯坦的目標是 2023年最重要的人格 (2024年的世界會是什麼樣子?) 2024年將會是真正的轉折點 因為想一想 美國 英國 印度 以及其他幾個國家是美國聯盟的一部分 它們都將舉行選舉 這就是你將看到的 國內局勢使得 美國體制崩壞的可能性增加 因為事實是 美國的所有行動 無論是對俄羅斯發動代理人戰爭 還是堅定不移地支持以色列 這些在美國公眾中都極不受歡迎 甚至大量美國猶太人都走上街頭 示威表示他們不希望 無條件支持尼坦雅胡政權 事實是 美國這樣做 並不是出於對猶太人的任何支持 從歷史上看 是為了建立一個在中東的立足點 在這種情況下 當然 以色列是美國的工具 歸根結底 不過如此 對我來說 那是一回事 英國是另一回事 看起來會有一場選舉 我認為選舉將是相當分歧的 每個人都認為工黨的凱爾斯塔摩將獲勝 如果他獲勝 那麼英國對美國的支持不會減少 但這只會造成英國進一步的不穩定 因為支持美國已經不再可行 英國再也不能採取支持美國的政策了 英國正面臨嚴重的國內危機 包括經濟危機和社會服務危機 各個方面的機構危機 我認為凱爾斯塔摩政府 將無法解決這些危機 當然 就印度而言 印度已經很多人會說 轉變了其完全親美的立場 這究竟如何在選舉中表現 還有待觀察 在所有這些方面 我認為國內關切 和普通民眾的關切 這會讓現有政權 越來越難以說服人民 取得勝利 就英國而言 或者就美國而言 但肯定在英國 如果凱爾斯塔摩獲勝 建制派也將獲勝 但事實是 這個建制派的能力 或這個建制派的合法性 已經受到嚴重削弱 基於所有這些原因 國內和國際之間 將會有一些深刻的互動 我們將不得不再次觀察這裡的情勢 稿 the US has no plan B it has only plan a and plan a consists of world domination which it is in increasingly out of its grasp for me that word is definitely Gaza and Palestine I think that while it did not change the trajectory on which the world was going it has vastly accelerated the progress of the world on a certain trajectory what trajectory was was it well essentially it is the trajectory in which the US attempts to control events around the world control the world basically in general are rapidly unraveling now this was already becoming clear in the war against Russia the proxy war against Russia which was conducted with Ukraine as a proxy because no matter how many millions the United States and the EUR and the Europeans encouraged by the United States were pouring into Ukraine no matter how many armaments they were giving it was not possible for them to help Ukraine to defeat Russia and remember this attempt to this attack on proxy war against Russia was undertaken with the blind assumption that they were going to defeat the Russians and they were going to reduce the Russian economy to you know bomb it back to the Stone Age and and reduce the rubble to a rubble and all this rhetoric and essentially as you may remember in the fall of 2021 the US right after two events happened the Afghanistan withdrawal which was so ignominious for the United States and Mrs Merkel stopping being the chancellor of Germany once these two events were out of the way the United States essentially began an attempt to reduce Russia essentially into a kind of you know Force Russia into succumbing fully confident that Russia would not initiate any kind of military action but Russia did and that was the beginning of the unraveling of the American strategy so that was already happening but I think with the essentially what has happened is with the resistance of the Palestinians finally bubbling forth in Gaza what has happened is that this unraveling of American attempts to dominate the world is unre and this is happening in a number of ways number one it's very clear that the United States so the first thing is that in a certain sense the United States pivot to Asia has not worked what do I mean by that what I mean is that when the United States decided that it was time to sort of shrug off and shed the commitments and obligations that they have incurred in the Middle East and start focusing on China that's what they would dearly like to do that's where they feel the main competitive threat to the United States is coming from but in a certain sense this is compelling their attention their energy their resources back to the Middle East it is a Middle East East which they do not even control in the sense that they cannot even control Israel let alone anybody else so on the one hand Israel is essentially acting like a rogue State the United States is reduced to essentially pleading with Israel saying please don't do this and that only because they know that they are losing the battle of World opinion so they are pleading with Israel to do this that and the other but they are not succeeding at the same time it is not as though you know despite all the efforts of the last many de they have not been able to bring the Arab countries of the region over to the side of Israel so essentially what they are looking at is that the Arab countries while they are not engaging in any military intervention in the situation but they are also essentially on the side of the Palestinians for one very simple reason no Arab government no matter how much they want to Cozy up to Israel can afford the unpopularity that such actions will bring even if they are quite an authoritarian government so for all so so that's the first first one the second one is that I would say that there is an economic you know what I I call what I do geopolitical economy for a reason because I think that economic and political power is very deeply interconnected as we see for example in the case of china but anyway in the case of the United States is the reverse in the sense it's the mirror image economic weakness brings political weakness but that is also that we are going to see that this what has happened in Gaza is going to make the economic management much more difficult in an election year so for example the Federal Reserve is essentially proclaiming that it has won the battle against inflation it has signaled that is going to bring down interest rates but I would say that I would watch this brief very carefully for one very simple reason inflation has not been kept down for two decades or for many decades since the 1980s because of the scale of the Federal Reserve it was kept down largely because the United States was still able to compel much of the world not all of it but much of the world to supply it with cheap Goods on an ongoing basis but that Arrangement has broken down which means that the and and this is one of the main purposes of us imperialism is to keep getting cheap Goods cheap Commodities cheap labor all of those things are not going to work food prices and fuel prices are going up but so are the prices of manufactured Commodities and as as we see with the Gaza situation it has led to the disruption of Red Sea the SE transport Corridor which then means that there is a massive addition to the cost of goods coming to Europe to the United States Etc and so all of this is going to and this is just one of the many uncertainties that is going to add to inflation and finally uh I would say that you know since keeping the dollar as the world's money has been one of the main objectives of the United States I would say that in 2023 we began to see the shaking of the foundations of this and with the Gaza conflict in particular what we have seen is that essentially the world is uniting against uh United States and is increasingly able to find ways of and essentially the oil producing regions and the rest of the bricks are going to come together today Iran Saudi Arabia Etc or part of the bricks block and I think under Russia's presidency this coming year this process will also accelerate so for all of these reasons I would say that uh the Gaza events the Hamas actions and and the Palestinian actions essentially reminding the world that their very very burning issue remained unresolved that Israeli oppression was only increasing and so this reminder is I would say the defining event of 2023 I'm not a betting person so I I would say that both are possibilities so I would say that the gradual unraveling is already occurring so us Dollar's role as a major Reserve currency is declining more and more transactions are now taking place outside the dollar system but I would say that there are two or three uh fronts on which I would watch number one is you know this whole question of inflation is directly relevant to the dollar system because it puts the US Federal Reserve in a bind so on the one hand the Federal Reserve has had for the last couple of decades the regime of easy monetary policy and that has meant that essentially all these Financial structures have been constructed on the basis of that regime and raising interest rates threatens Financial stability in the United States and that has direct implications for the dollar system because the vastly bloated Financial dollar denominated Financial system which is headquartered in the United States has historically over the last couple of decades played the function of essentially attracting the world's money into it to the extent that these investors want to make easy money and so uh this money after 2008 was already drastically reduced and now if there are further uh shall we say further disturbances and we already saw some disturbances in the spring of 2023 with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and several other Banks I would say that um if inflation persists and the Federal Reserve has to keep interest rates high or maybe even raise them higher then this financial structures will collapse and that will mean that the dollar system systems credibility will um waver because you know all the Advocates of the dollar system the ones who say oh the dollar system is working very well they are constantly referring to the broad and deep financial markets of the United States well they will seem very quickly appear to be very shallow and narrow and so in that sense we will we will see what happens and then on the other hand if the Federal Reserve decides to preserve Financial stability and not increase interest rates it's going to have a serious problem because because essentially the inflation itself will undermine the value of the dollar and so in in both cases it's caught between a rock and a hard play so that's one thing and as I said the other thing is that I don't think that they can expect inflation not to continue because increasingly the US power is receding and with us power will recede its ability to compel the rest of the world to yield up their Commodities their manufactured goods their labor at a low price and this is what the United States has benefited from for the last four four and a half decades it's be why the reason the most profound reason why this has happened is because the United States and West Western Elites in general are living in the past they think that their relative power compared to the rest of the world continues to be as great as it once was but this is no longer true so it's like somebody who thinks they have got a very powerful you know weapon in their hands but all they have is a water pistol because you see this so having having Point made that analogy let me get down to the concrete reasons first of all the imposition of sanctions themselves has been very patchy what do I mean by that they have tried to design the sanctions in such a way that existing businesses in their own countries whether it is the United States or Germany or Canada are not unduly hurt which means that a lot of these businesses are continuing to do business with Russia simply because they don't want to hurt them secondly the Russia has been able to rebuild its economy very quickly and remember it had a long lead period because the first sanctions were imposed in the aftermath of the events of 2014 so Russia had already Russia faced agricultural sanctions and in the period since 2014 Russia managed to turn around its its agricultural economy in such a way that it is today a major exporter of grain fertilizers etc etc so that experience was already there and Russia has been able to essentially engage in a form of import substituting industrialization and it has proved very good at that and I think the government has has done that so I would say that a combination of things the West's power to essentially cut off the rest of the world is not as great as it once was and uh the fact of the matter is that Russia is has has taken a proactive stance on this so it has been able to uh to outdo those sanctions there Remains the question of financial sanctions but the fact again is that there are especially now that if today the financial sanctions only matter to you if you are greatly desirous of participating you and your capitalist classes are greatly desires of participating in the casino that is the US financial sector if you don't wish to participate in that you can organize your trade and even your investment relations outside the Ambit of the US Financial system why is that because the US Financial system in fact is not exist to facilitate trade in fact it distorts trade and investment relations by artificially increasing the value of the US dollar Etc and also of course introducing fluctuations in it and so on but on the other hand as well the the other reason is that historically this system has been created for instance by asking other countries to lift Capital controls so that the rich people of their country could participate in these Casino life Arrangements this creation of this system was justified by saying to countries who people you know and the Clinton Administration they would say to countries if you lift Capital controls it's very good for you because you will get the much needed Capital that you need for your productive investment but in reality this never happened the only kind of money that went into these the countries that lifted Capital controls was essentially short-term capital which was there to not invest productively but in fact to engage in speculation and make quick gains and then leave and so this of course was also very volatile destabilizing it led to financial crisis and so on so quite frankly the world does not need the dollar system the world does not need the US Financial system but so for all these reasons I would say that the dollar system is going to unravel pretty soon yeah I would say say that there was the China celebrating decade of the belt and Road initiative and its success I think that was an important thing I think events in Latin America particularly Visa uh the us being forced to soften its position Visa Venezuela was another very important thing I think that the bricks the the admission of five new countries into the bricks and now speaking of Venezuela the possibility that in 2024 under the Russian presidency new countries including countries like Venezuela would be admitted to the bricks I think all of these will be very momentous developments I would also say that uh other developments that are important is the sharpening of the confrontation between the United States and China although we have seen certain developments taking place top level us officials going to China and even president she and President Biden having a meeting but as you know very quickly after the meeting the whole thing has unraveled so it is not at all very clear so the United States is kind of essentially leaving pots boiling on many different elements in the sense that it's a problematic relationship with China is far from resolved remember 2022 ended with the promise of better relations because president she and President Biden met on the sidelines of that meeting in Indonesia I forget which one it was I think it was a G20 meeting and then uh uh everybody expected that there would be good relations but then the United States went hysterical over the Spy balloon and everything else happened and and so on but I would say that throughout all of this the United States has acted irresponsibly provocatively rudely and in in ways that are in ways that you know it cannot sustain because it has threatened things that it cannot actually back up uh there is no back it cannot actually do whereas I would say that the president she and his government and his diplomats and everyone have essentially engaged with the United States in particular with a a remarkable combination of a calm demeanor against provocation you know not taking it as a personal insult but behaving calmly even when the United States has been behaving insultingly because they know that the prospects for World Peace depend on them and so I would say that China has very good reasons to be proud of its government of its president of its diplomats because I think that this has been generally the demeanor they have kept the larger picture in mind that you cannot create a warlike situation between the United States and China and not endanger World Peace So they have kept that larger view in mind and I think they have behaved exceedingly responsibly and I would say with with as I say great self-command and restraint China is very happy to see be a prosperous Society in a world of prosperous societies the United States is the opposite it has on the one hand organized its internal economy so badly that actually it cannot beat China China is going to beat it unless it there is a 180° turn in US economic policy but we don't see any Prospect of that at the same time therefore because it cannot actually quietly look after itself and you know compete with China it is trying to thwart China and so this is what we see and also it is doing so increasingly so in its attempts what will happen inevitably is that if it does manage to provoke a confrontation it is not going to necessarily win that confrontation it is not going to necessarily successful toward China it may of course set China back a year or two but at the end of the day it does not have the ability to win Wars even against countries like Afghanistan or Iraq or Libya or how is it going to cope against a powerful country like China it is just nonsense but unfortunately like I often say the US has no plan B it has only plan a and plan a consists of world domination which it is increasingly out of its grasp but because there is no sensible voice saying you know what folks we don't need this we can be like other good s good International citizens we can be a country that looks after its own which the US clearly does not if you look at the levels of poverty inequality homelessness lack of Medical Care Etc but the US does not wish to address those things and instead it wishes to engage in some this hollow competition it can only end badly and all one can hope is that the kind of restraint which which is being showed by leaders like Ai and I would also say President Putin will prevail in the end they will not lead to any unnecessary Wars and we may even Prevail over the US's worst provocations and leave the world give the world the peace it needs to pursue development finally I should say that I I think I can't remember exactly whether they were published in 2023 or the previous year but the various policy documents that China has brought forward the Global Security initiative the development initiative Etc these documents have also provided a very important guideline so to speak for the emerging definitely emerging multi-polar World Order because that's the flip side of the unraveling of us power is that the world order is creating greater space for countries to choose development and to develop their own countries that's a difficult question because the very point about multipolarity is that your power is being dispersed in the system so in that sense I would say that this focus on a single person is difficult but in any case since I said that it's Gaza I would say that it's Palestine as a personality I think the Palestinian cause is I would say the most important personality in 2020 you know 2024 is going to be that it's going to be a really a pivot point because think about it the United States the United Kingdom India and several other countries that are you know essentially part of the US Alliance they're all going to the polls and this is where you're going to see the domestic forces adding to the possibility of destabilization of the US system because the fact is that all the US's actions whether it is the proxy war against Russia or whether it is the support the unstinting support for Israel these are deeply unpopular among the American public even very significant numbers of Jewish Americans have taken to the streets and are demonstrating that they do not want this unconditional support for the nanahu regime and the fact of the matter is that the United States is not doing this because of any support for Jewish people it has historically done this in order to establish a foothold on in the Middle East in which case of course Israel is an instrument for the United States at the end of the day is nothing more than that but anyway so to me so that's one thing again in the UK I mean it looks as though there will be an election and I think the election will be quite divisive everybody thinks that Pama is going to win and of course if he wins then the UK support for the United States will not decrease but that will only create further instability within the UK because this support for the United States is not it's not viable it is not a viable policy for the UK to have any longer the UK is suffering from profound domestic Crisis crisis of the economy crisis of Social Services crisis of every POS institutions every possible Direction and I think that a Kama government will be unable to resolve these crisis and of course in the case of India as well I mean India has already it seemed many people would say turned away from its sort of Simply Pro Us St so exactly how this appears bans out in the election we will have to see uh so in all of these ways I think the domestic concerns and the ordinary popular concerns will increasingly will essentially make it very difficult for existing pars to win convincingly and you know in the case of the UK or for that matter in the US but certainly in the UK the same establishment will win if Kama wins right but the fact is that this establishment's ability to or this establishment's legitimacy has been massively undermined so for all these reasons for all these reasons there are going to be some Prof found interactions I would say between the domestic and the international and we are going to have to observe again what happens here [Music]
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