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假设20年前都拥有4万元,两种投资方案。
A: 投资高增值但是是负现金流的房子。20年房子增值4倍,房价是原来的5倍,房子年增长率8.4%。租金年增长率6.0%。各种维护开销是房价2%。租金原来只有1000,现在3200。Plan A 利率6%.
数字是假设的,我做了excel表格。如果大家有兴趣我可以用你当地的数据。
B: 投资低增值但是是正现金流的房子。20年房子增值1.5倍,房子年增长率4.7%。租金年增长率4.7%。就是大家经常说的1%rule的房子。各种维护开销是房价3%, 比上面高1%。Plan B 利率6.5%,也比上面高。
如果是你,你会选择A还是B呢?
PLAN A
Year |
# House Had |
House Price |
Down Payment |
Rent |
Mortgage/mo |
Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo |
Cash flow/mo |
Cash flow/ye |
W2 cash |
Total cash |
Buy House Next Year? |
Principe paid |
Net Worth |
1 |
1 |
$200,000 |
40000 |
1000 |
($959) |
($333) |
($293) |
($3,511) |
0 |
-3511 |
FALSE |
2024 |
$38,512 |
2 |
1 |
$216,760 |
43352 |
1060 |
($959) |
($361) |
($261) |
($3,128) |
0 |
-6639 |
FALSE |
2145 |
$54,289 |
3 |
1 |
$234,924 |
46985 |
1123 |
($959) |
($392) |
($227) |
($2,730) |
0 |
-9369 |
FALSE |
2274 |
$71,998 |
4 |
1 |
$254,610 |
50922 |
1191 |
($959) |
($424) |
($193) |
($2,316) |
0 |
-11685 |
FALSE |
2410 |
$91,778 |
5 |
1 |
$275,946 |
55189 |
1262 |
($959) |
($460) |
($157) |
($1,887) |
0 |
-13572 |
FALSE |
2555 |
$113,782 |
6 |
1 |
$299,070 |
59814 |
1337 |
($959) |
($498) |
($120) |
($1,443) |
0 |
-15015 |
FALSE |
2708 |
$138,171 |
7 |
1 |
$324,131 |
64826 |
1418 |
($959) |
($540) |
($82) |
($983) |
0 |
-15999 |
FALSE |
2871 |
$165,120 |
8 |
1 |
$351,293 |
70259 |
1502 |
($959) |
($585) |
($42) |
($508) |
0 |
-16506 |
FALSE |
3043 |
$194,817 |
9 |
1 |
$380,731 |
76146 |
1592 |
($959) |
($635) |
($1) |
($17) |
0 |
-16523 |
FALSE |
3226 |
$227,464 |
10 |
1 |
$412,635 |
82527 |
1688 |
($959) |
($688) |
$41 |
$489 |
0 |
-16034 |
FALSE |
3419 |
$263,277 |
11 |
1 |
$447,214 |
89443 |
1789 |
($959) |
($745) |
$84 |
$1,011 |
0 |
-15023 |
FALSE |
3624 |
$302,490 |
12 |
1 |
$484,689 |
96938 |
1896 |
($959) |
($808) |
$129 |
$1,547 |
0 |
-13477 |
FALSE |
3842 |
$330,331 |
13 |
1 |
$525,306 |
105061 |
2010 |
($959) |
($876) |
$175 |
$2,097 |
0 |
-11380 |
FALSE |
4072 |
$377,116 |
14 |
1 |
$569,325 |
113865 |
2130 |
($959) |
($949) |
$222 |
$2,660 |
0 |
-8720 |
FALSE |
4317 |
$416,733 |
15 |
1 |
$617,034 |
123407 |
2257 |
($959) |
($1,028) |
$270 |
$3,237 |
0 |
-5483 |
FALSE |
4576 |
$472,254 |
16 |
1 |
$668,740 |
133748 |
2393 |
($959) |
($1,115) |
$319 |
$3,825 |
0 |
-1659 |
FALSE |
4850 |
$527,152 |
17 |
1 |
$724,780 |
144956 |
2536 |
($959) |
($1,208) |
$369 |
$4,423 |
0 |
2764 |
FALSE |
5141 |
$592,755 |
18 |
1 |
$785,515 |
157103 |
2688 |
($959) |
($1,309) |
$419 |
$5,030 |
0 |
7795 |
FALSE |
5450 |
$666,735 |
19 |
1 |
$851,340 |
170268 |
2849 |
($959) |
($1,419) |
$470 |
$5,645 |
0 |
13440 |
FALSE |
5777 |
$743,982 |
20 |
1 |
$922,681 |
184536 |
3019 |
($959) |
($1,538) |
$522 |
$6,265 |
0 |
19705 |
FALSE |
6123 |
$841,152 |
21 |
1 |
$1,000,000 |
200000 |
3200 |
($959) |
($1,667) |
$574 |
$6,889 |
0 |
26594 |
FALSE |
6491 |
$931,850 |
PLAN B 20年后会是多少钱呢?
Plan B |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
20 Years Ago: Year 1998 |
Interest Rate |
6.50% |
Now Year 2018 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
House price |
|
60000 |
Growth Rate |
4.7% |
House price |
150000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rent |
|
600 |
Rent Growth Rate |
4.7% |
Rent |
1500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yearly W2 cash for investment |
0 |
W2 growth rate |
4.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash on hand |
|
40000 |
Maintenance cost of house price |
3.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
# House Had |
House Price |
Down Payment |
Rent |
Mortgage/mo |
Insurance, tax, vacancy, management /mo |
Cash flow/mo |
Cash flow/ye |
W2 cash |
Total cash |
Buy House Next Year? |
Principe paid |
Net Worth |
1 |
3 |
$60,000 |
12000 |
1800 |
($910) |
($450) |
$440 |
$5,278 |
0 |
9278 |
FALSE |
1667 |
$22,945 |
2 |
3 |
$62,813 |
12563 |
1884 |
($910) |
($471) |
$503 |
$6,037 |
0 |
15315 |
TRUE |
1776 |
$39,196 |
3 |
4 |
$65,757 |
13151 |
2630 |
($1,243) |
($658) |
$730 |
$8,760 |
0 |
10924 |
FALSE |
2521 |
$111,918 |
4 |
4 |
$68,840 |
13768 |
2754 |
($1,243) |
($688) |
$823 |
$9,870 |
0 |
20794 |
TRUE |
2685 |
$136,804 |
5 |
5 |
$72,067 |
14413 |
3603 |
($1,607) |
($901) |
$1,095 |
$13,145 |
0 |
19526 |
TRUE |
3575 |
$224,087 |
6 |
6 |
$75,446 |
15089 |
4527 |
($1,989) |
($1,132) |
$1,406 |
$16,878 |
0 |
21315 |
TRUE |
4568 |
$322,783 |
7 |
7 |
$78,983 |
15797 |
5529 |
($2,388) |
($1,382) |
$1,759 |
$21,104 |
0 |
26622 |
TRUE |
5676 |
$433,970 |
8 |
8 |
$82,686 |
16537 |
6615 |
($2,806) |
($1,654) |
$2,155 |
$25,861 |
0 |
35945 |
TRUE |
6909 |
$558,807 |
9 |
10 |
$86,562 |
17312 |
8656 |
($3,681) |
($2,164) |
$2,811 |
$33,728 |
0 |
52361 |
TRUE |
9197 |
$788,555 |
10 |
12 |
$90,620 |
18124 |
10874 |
($4,598) |
($2,719) |
$3,558 |
$42,694 |
0 |
76931 |
TRUE |
11754 |
$1,046,699 |
11 |
16 |
$94,868 |
18974 |
15179 |
($6,517) |
($3,795) |
$4,867 |
$58,409 |
0 |
116367 |
TRUE |
16691 |
$1,533,278 |
12 |
21 |
$99,316 |
19863 |
20856 |
($9,028) |
($5,214) |
$6,615 |
$79,374 |
0 |
175878 |
TRUE |
23330 |
$2,300,224 |
13 |
29 |
$103,972 |
20794 |
30152 |
($13,234) |
($7,538) |
$9,380 |
$112,563 |
0 |
267646 |
TRUE |
34312 |
$3,355,854 |
14 |
41 |
$108,846 |
21769 |
44627 |
($19,838) |
($11,157) |
$13,632 |
$163,583 |
0 |
409460 |
TRUE |
51663 |
$5,264,480 |
15 |
58 |
$113,949 |
22790 |
66090 |
($29,633) |
($16,523) |
$19,934 |
$239,211 |
0 |
625881 |
TRUE |
77835 |
$7,705,076 |
16 |
84 |
$119,291 |
23858 |
100204 |
($45,317) |
($25,051) |
$29,837 |
$358,038 |
0 |
960061 |
TRUE |
120054 |
$12,196,579 |
17 |
122 |
$124,883 |
24977 |
152357 |
($69,313) |
($38,089) |
$44,955 |
$539,463 |
0 |
1474548 |
TRUE |
185698 |
$18,112,076 |
18 |
178 |
$130,738 |
26148 |
232713 |
($106,333) |
($58,178) |
$68,201 |
$818,417 |
0 |
2266817 |
TRUE |
288547 |
$28,702,997 |
19 |
260 |
$136,867 |
27373 |
355853 |
($163,083) |
($88,963) |
$103,807 |
$1,245,680 |
0 |
3485124 |
TRUE |
448870 |
$42,684,192 |
20 |
381 |
$143,283 |
28657 |
545908 |
($250,749) |
($136,477) |
$158,681 |
$1,904,176 |
0 |
5360644 |
TRUE |
700521 |
$67,750,831 |
21 |
559 |
$150,000 |
30000 |
838500 |
($385,759) |
($209,625) |
$243,116 |
$2,917,389 |
0 |
8248033 |
TRUE |
1094606 |
$100,992,055 |
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