Papers Category:Computer Papers - Internet Research Papers
Post Time:2014-10-28 13:59:00
(Free Paper Download Center News) Recently, the spiritual godfather of Silicon Valley, Technology Business prophet Kevin Kelly at Stanford University, for more than 20 participants from China Europe International Business School for as long as three hours to share, to talk about his future 20 Major trends in business technology insights.
KK wonderful views Broadcasting
1, the next one of the times is the times of oxygen in the near future, the amount of information transmitted over the wireless network we will exceed the amount of information through a wired transmission network.
2, the future, the data will be more between each person transmission of smart devices, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. By 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km .
3, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, sexual life but only your current view in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times...
4, driverless cars in the future will become your new office, you use the car received data than sitting in the office where you received more data.
5, Bitcoin really bring the feeling of subversion is an exchange, and this exchange produces the same money value.
6,20 thing after the greatest product, we have not been invented. While high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say that you now is not late, but it is already happening fundamental on what are not.
Speech text
'Disruptive innovation' Professor Christensen is the concept that this famous innovator's dilemma >> << mentioned in the book. He told us that innovation in a successful body Now that is what's likely to occur .1800 , the world's most profitable companies are those companies operating sailboat, which has become a global enterprise. Then steamboat was invented, no sail, launched by a steam turbine. steamboat appear at the beginning, is an experience terrible traffic Tools - compared with Galleon small and short, manufacturing is very expensive, reliability is very poor at the time of the big shipping companies have not put it in the eye.
However, despite all sorts of tricky, but there is a steamboat advantage is that you can countercurrent forward, which can only be changed for thousands of years mankind 'down the river' of history. With the development of technology, the steamship becomes cheaper, higher and higher reliability, the volume is also getting bigger. Finally, the steamboat technology is mature, not only destroyed the galleon, but also eliminated the galleon do those who rely on ocean shipping company.
Disruptive innovations are initially a joke
To sum up: there is a disruptive technology innovation mode: just began to appear humble when things are being overlooked can see these three lines: the top line is doing a very good industry leaders in the market, There is a very stable development curve, a curve is below the minimum consumer satisfaction, the bottom of that point, was the emergence of disruptive innovation enterprise. Initially, disruptive innovation technology than poor customer requirements, is a joke. However, when it is at a faster pace, suddenly one day met a demand point of consumers, it will generate momentum quickly become ruler of the market.
For a disruptive technology start-ups, they have very struggle, the quality of work is very low, very high risk, profit is very low, the market is very small, the business model has not been paid much attention to rational businessman would not do it kind of business. Why only start-ups and small businesses will do these innovations? Because they have no choice. a very, very frightening fact is that most start-ups are finally finished it!
Another opponent, no matter what industry you are doing and really pose the greatest threat to you certainly not now within the industry opponent, but you can not see beyond those industry competitors. Next, I want to talk to everyone who I think there may have areas of subversion.
Oxygen from the Copper Age to Age
The first fact that I want to say is this: not the substance of the fastest growing in the world, but the information it than all of our biological capacity, human productivity faster amount of information in the world to what extent needed.? 16 multiplied by 276 to describe the power of Humans create network cable lengths per second has exceeded the speed of sound. These called the information explosion, the expansion speed of information and the speed of the atomic bomb is the same. And this is a long-lasting explosion, far far from instant.
By 2050, the amount of data to reach a very scary one million Zetabit. A Zetabit is one trillion G. Then this era called Zeta era, the era after the Zeta, the greater the magnitude of what used to describe information? English has Ciqiong. I talked with a lot of linguists to this problem, they have no answers. Faced with such a large amount of information, we do not even have a good mathematical algorithms to real-time processing of data. How do I use the data, the data becomes valuable things? there is there a lot of opportunities.
Different commercial use different media to transmit information era. Early copper, because people with cable transmission, and then entered the era of silicon, silicon fabricated chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen in the near future, we adopted a wireless network the total amount of information to transmit information will be transmitted over the network via a wired personal data is a big future
There is also a trend for future data: Now a lot of data are transmitted over intercontinental submarine cable, is transmitted between geographically but will remain in the future a lot of data processed locally, or even the total information to each family as a unit process. amount may be larger than the amount of data left in the local. and then expand a level, each of us will have a lot of data every day. In the broadcast era, the number of visitors is a big middleweight, by the broadcasting station to touch , to the age of the Internet, there blog and social media, you become a broadcasting station, you can have a lot of the audience, but the amount of information you pass less, far less than the broadcast station, and later appeared micro-channel circle of friends, passed to the relatively small audience, but a very large amount of information. I think the future is everyone passing era own information.
Large sites like Amazon have a node to control a lot of the audience, which we call the 'cloud', a low level that some local transmitting station, which we call the 'fog', and the bottom is called the grid, that is, Each of us as a receiver. I predict that the next data between each person more intelligent transmission equipment, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. We own a small form LAN 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km. So, although not like the current level of technology telecom WiFi, Bluetooth technology, is not very serious, profit margins are low, the market is very small, a lot of problems, but it is not possible to subvert the future?
The ability to intervene in the network is more important than ownership
Another disruptive technology is the cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information that is 500 square feet level, another 500 people groups information is 500 square feet level. If these two groups networking, is able to produce the amount of data the square magnitude of 1000, far greater than the two 500-square traditional expansion of the network is very simple, even these smaller networks together into a larger network. expansion of the network to bring growth is geometric multiples. Therefore, there is a big cloud, than you put it dispersed into many small value of the network much more. From this point of view the Internet, the more the number, the cost of providing each customer you can infinitely close to zero You basically can provide a free service. With the development of cloud technology, the ability to intervene in the network than the actual ownership has to be more important. Since the Property is the foundation of capitalism, now we subvert the ownership of capital Marxism is a very important thing.
All business is business data
No matter what industry you are doing, you are doing business data business. Your data about customers, in fact, talk to your customers for you is equally important data through the network flow, from one format into another format data should not be defined in its storage, it should be defined by the circulation.
Past data era, we used files, folders, desktop these things. After entering the Internet age, the data appears on the web page, link inside. Today we use the cloud, with a label to describe the data stream. For now, file clip, what's on the page is not the most important data. All things are in our data stream, there is information and news. My past is the key word, the key word now is that we, in the past is the key word project now the key word is the data we are in the first day of the new era of the Internet, at this moment the most important. Then we need to know how to quantify myself, I have been involved in such a project, to our own Some of the information to the data.
We use a lot of equipment to carry out self quantify. Some people I know, will be installed more than 40 sensors on the body, constantly test their data. I have a bet with a person, any one as long as humans use tools that can be measured data, must be weighed in. Why do we have to track these data? There are health reasons, social reasons, improve work efficiency reasons. There are a lot of very forefront of data measurement tools, for example, there is a tool to analyze we breathe gas inside the compound, through the analysis of breath to determine your blood situation. Apple introduced the watch is kept collecting your data, processed through APP. Through data analysis, we can see that the highest efficiency of day, and in the day we what to eat, what to do things to improve efficiency. We can pass such a way to better understand themselves and improve production efficiency.
Now just to share an early age
Now a hot topic of discussion is the ubiquitous camera surveillance. However, the Internet always want to monitor and collect data, we are hard to stop this trend. On us every phone has a camera, which means A total of 6 billion global video camera. social media flourished, let us always keep our position in the report.
Spielberg and I did a movie together called << >> Minority Report, the actor has always wanted to be tracked from the environment to escape, but he found his every place advertising on the screen have changed as for his advertising. We are talking about Pornographic, prism National Security Agency, and we all know that their data has been collected unsafe. These data were collected we are unable to stop, and we should be thinking about is how to how to put patterns from data collected by one agency to control, become to observe each other between you and me. For example, the United States, police brought a camera sensor for real-time monitoring of the public, then, in turn, the public can also bring this thing to monitor Police on what we do.
Personalization and transparency are positively correlated. If you hide yourself completely, not to share any data, your personalized also zero. If you want to become a personality, you must show your own data to the outside, convey your message out.
We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge alternating years, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, do not talk to someone to share my life, but these are just my point of view you are now. believes that in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times.
Augmented reality, a new interface and visual tracking
We all know that Google glasses, and now wearable smart lenses can be directly attached to your cornea. Wearable device more than a spectacle, it may become clothes. We use it to receive data, and also to transfer data, interact with it through a variety of friction. We did a blind back wearable vest, a camera above, you can see the front, through the vibration to tell the blind how to go.
These are augmented reality, I learned in college is this profession. Augmented reality with virtual objects you see in the real world together in some way, which is cool.
The new interface, I demonstrated in over->> << Minority Report Tom Cruise in the operation of a computer, keyboarding is not like us, but the whole body with them to talk to a machine interaction Each part of the body that we should be able to operate a computer. If I want to do a science fiction movie, I will never let a movie protagonist use the keyboard to operate a computer, and I let him do some gestures, and it looked at the work.
There are also visual tracking. It keeps track of your eyes look out of place, you know what you are looking at through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, the use of these technologies to track his eye, to see what he was looking at How, when the mood changes accordingly to change our content. As a result, we look at the screen when in fact it is also watching us so we can go based on the feedback to modify our work.
Voice technology is far more than Apple's SIRI technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the screen shot is Spanish, displays became English. This is one of our last one an idea of ??interpersonal interaction, said earlier that in addition to these, he is a helmet, you take it in his head to capture your ideas, you can go through your mind manipulate the computer.
Attention where it is, where is the money
Attention Economy is a subversive field, where the attention, the money where it is. A lot of people are watching the mail every day, spend a lot of time in the mail, it takes up our time. So some people say that you should read messages can get the money, because you spend time in. If you have money to read e-mail, then read advertising is not more to give money? Now the advertising model is to spend money to vote for the advertising company, why not go directly to the money on your users, so that he could get the money to see the ads it? So that we can look at this man's attention where it is, and then use the money to buy his attention and let him see our advertising. This will affect other people, influential people should give more money.
A new business model is that we should have the right to allow themselves to be media, in their own ads on top to make money. For example, some of the following blog will put an ad that looks pretty cool, not like an ad, but Bo Lord can get the money. Also people should have the ability to go through their own production of advertising to make money. There are consumers directly involved advertising, direct advertising, and then become socialized an advertising through their own social media. This is completely subversion of the advertising industry.
Remote image and video technology
Remote image is a subversive areas, such as conference calls, remote medical .Oculus is a virtual reality company Facebook has just acquired, I tried their products, I feel particularly good, is a full immersion experience, very real .Facebook spent $ 1 billion to acquire the company.
In addition there are a variety of screens, including folding screens. Next screen, not just the hard one, we can even become like a book, like the screen, you can turn, you can fold the contents inside the variable . There are no screen display, such as a hologram. holographic technology is not perfect now, but later on we could also produce subversion. We now have people who are not reading, but people who read the screen. screen there are a variety of all sorts of logic.
3D printing has brought us a huge subversion is that you used to think those things hardware and software in the future will become a .3D print something out is actually a drawing, to be able to change can be transmitted, modified, data formation. So this is one we are now talking about this with a variety of Internet devices, it is also the chip inside, Americans have an expectation, re-use of 3D printing technology to make manufacturing return to the United States, but there are a kinds of argument, China is now the leader in 3D printing.
Artificial intelligence is the wisdom that can be purchased
Apple's SIRI is artificial intelligence, you can dialogue with it. But we see most of the AI ??is not so cool, all running in the background. It can handle X-rays, handling legal evidence, flight problems, etc. Now the graphics processing Chip's progress to enhance the ability of machine learning, there are some machines can understand your photos, tell you what these pictures are about, human interaction can also be a dialogue with you, is still in the laboratory stage.
Artificial intelligence is a service that you can spend money to buy through artificial intelligence to start a company, you need to use artificial intelligence to a particular field to increase the intelligence, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, in fact, the artificial intelligence into . It appears the car will affect the traffic state, the impact of this industry and the courier driver industry people and the real revolution: The cars in the future will become your new office, in the future you use the car received data than you take the data received in the office more.
Electronic money is a form of communication
Money is important, but money is a form of communication now. All the same field with the nature of communication, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcast, elaborate or identify all communication with nature. There is a cryptographic currency called Bitcoin , means that the communication is encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, currency trading is not invisible electronic money generated related to communication, is able to track, in fact, is a kind of communication. So bits subversion coins really bring a sense of communication, and this produces the same money exchange value.
Raise public equity revolution
US now has 450 public raise the platform, resulting in some very successful projects, it has now become a big business, a lot of money flocked to this area. A lot of people use this site is not intended to raise public financing, but with this things to do market research, to look at their business plan will not be popular. Recently the congregation to raise equity to be recognized, and this is a very big revolution.
If we are through to the 1980s, when people tell, 30 years later you will have to Wikipedia, there will be a variety of cool technology of today, no one would believe it. Looking to the next 20 years is unimaginable to us today The only thing I know is that 20 years after the greatest product, we have not been invented, and you as an entrepreneur, it is necessary to invent these things! Although high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say, you is not late now, but what has happened now is simply not anything (Source: Central European Institute of Business Management, compile: Free Paper Download Center