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股市反弹在即的原因
FA:
(1)SP500 is trading for 15.30x 2007 and 13.50x 2008 earnings, very
attractive.
Anyone know what is the PE for SP500 in 2000?
(2)The P/E for the overall market translates to an earnings yield of
7.2%, which is far more attractive than the 4.02% level available on
a 10 year T-Note today
Anyone know what is 10 year T-Note yield in 2000
(3) The trouble sector is financial in 2007, Can Fed help? Yes.
The trouble sector was Tech in 2000, Could Fed help? not
much.
TA:
(1)6周的调整接近尾声, 历次大调整都是6-7周. 多数6周结束（牛市是真结束
，熊市是暂停，反弹后，接着跌）.
(2)大盘处于严重超卖状态, 这周每天都是以近千个股票创52周新低.
(3)NAZ强劲, 6周只跌10%, 2000年大熊开始时, NAZ 6周从高位跌了28%才有反
弹(SP500 也是跌15%以上).
(4)尽管各指数都跌破200MA, 但破而不慌, 目前可看成牛市深度调整. 且已调
整到位.
(5)SP500 1410是个很好的支撑．今天收在1416.
综合我的TA和FA, 反弹在即! 以后的牛熊,视反弹的力度而定.
一般中长期我是看200MA,但也要具体分析.
GOOD LUCK!
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